BJP, Parrikar's bold plan to uproot Congress in 'Goa's Amethi'

On the surface the BJP’s campaign for the South Goa seat is just like any other. But there is much more than just an electoral war at play in this constituency, often referred to as Goa’s Amethi, because it has traditionally always voted Congress. South Goa, especially the Catholic-dominated Salcette, a coastal sub-district, is the backdrop for one of BJP’s most audacious experiments to win Goa’s beating Catholic heart. It is a socio-electoral experiment that is quietly being conducted by the BJP and personally monitored by chief minister Manohar Parrikar himself. [caption id=“attachment_1475701” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] PTI[/caption] The Mission: Getting avowed Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh member Narendra Savoikar elected from a constituency which has historically favoured a Catholic candidate and where the mood of the minority community has always mattered in the final analysis. After ‘successful’ experimentation in Gujarat (Muslims form nearly 10 percent of the state population), where the BJP has fine tuned the art of electoral supremacy, Goa with its 27 percent odd Catholic population is the next challenge for the saffron party’s electoral laboratory. And the party is closing in on the South Goa minority formula. But it’s not going to be an easy ask, when one takes these statistics into account. Barring one exception in 1999, South Goa has voted on predictable lines, much like the Gandhi bastion of Amethi in Uttar Pradesh. Out of the 14 general elections Amethi has returned a Congressman on 12 occasions, which makes it such a safe launchpad for the Gandhi clan. But South Goa hasn’t done badly either, returning a Congress candidate 10 times out of 14. In 12 instances the candidate was Catholic. Little wonder then, that when Congress president Sonia Gandhi was scouting for another safe seat to contest from more than a decade ago, South Goa was on the shortlist. She eventually chose to contest from Bellary in Karnataka. Wresting the South Goa constituency has now become a matter of prestige and strategic significance for the BJP and more expressly, Parrikar himself. The Goa chief minister is in the process of projecting himself as a minority-friendly, acceptable face. “He has ambitions. Goa is too small a place for someone of his capabilities. A win in Christian-dominated South Goa with one of our own RSS cadre soldier as a candidate will certainly boost his credentials,” says a BJP state executive member on condition of anonymity. Party leaders in Goa candidly say in private, that Parrikar has a long shot at emerging as a consensus candidate for prime minister after the results are declared, should a number-starved BJP be forced to haggle with NDA allies. It was a mixture of Parrikar-inspired social engineering and chronic anti-incumbency which had helped the BJP to rout Congress from Salcette during the assembly polls, which comprises of the Velim, Fatorda, Benaulim, Nuvem, Cuncolim, Curtorim, Navelim legislative assembly segments. In most of these constituencies, the Catholic vote is pivotal. The BJP’s best performance in state assembly elections here has been one seat. The social engineering mentioned earlier, involved the BJP conceding an unprecedented 25 percent of seats to Catholic candidates and the party backing several other Catholic candidates contesting as Independents. The benefits were reaped in full by the BJP, who for the first time in its history, won a simple majority in the forty member Goa legislative assembly. And in Salcette, the Congress was reduced to one seat, while the BJP now has one MLA and four legislators who are supporting the BJP-led coalition government. The role played by the Church, which subtly backed the BJP in several constituencies in 2012– a first in Goa’s politics – also played a role in sealing the Congress’ fate there. The BJP’s calculated obsession with Salcette began more than six years ago. It started with an initiative which was informally called ‘Mission Salcette’ within the party. It was a sustained, long term plan to ‘evangelise’ the Catholic vote. This constituted increasing the footprint of minority friendly leaders in Salcette, giving issues related to the region and its minority inhabitants airtime during party meetings and public interactions, reaching out to young Catholic political leaders with potential, and trying to engage the Church and the clergy. According to BJP’s state vice president Dr. Wilfred Mesquita, Parrikar has invested so much time and energy in the Catholic-dominated Salcette region, it is practically his ‘second home’. And it looks like things could be falling in place for the BJP in South Goa ahead of these general elections, despite hiccups like the sudden decision of the Catholic Church to withdraw its blessings to the saffron party. But like all good planners, the BJP always had a Plan B in place. While former chief minister Churchill Alemao, who is also a powerful leader from the Salcette region is formally contesting on an All India Trinamool Congress ticket, his candidature is being seen as an third-party attempt by the BJP to cull the critical Catholic vote from Congress candidate Reginaldo Lourenco. A win for an RSS man in Catholic country would have immense positive ramifications and alter the manner in which the minority community views the BJP. But a win for the Congress in South Goa, given the circumstances, would perhaps only imply that for a party which is potentially facing a nationwide electoral drubbing, the proverbial fig leaf is still in place.