BJP may win at least 8 out of 10 Rajya Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh, poll analysts predict

With the BJP having 304 members in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly, the 9 November election for the ten Rajya Sabha seats from the state may turn out to be a nearly one-sided affair for the party, feel poll analysts. The BJP is likely to win eight to nine Rajya Sabha from the state seats while the main opposition Samajwadi Party with only 48 members in the assembly may secure only one seat, they said. The Election Commission on Tuesday announced elections to 10 Rajya Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh and one in Uttarakhand, falling vacant on 25 November. The ten Rajya Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh falling vacant include three of BJP, four of Samajwadi party, two of Bahujan Samaj Party and one of the Congress. With the BJP having 304 members in the UP Assembly at present, it is for the first time in the past four decades that the elections for the Rajya Sabha seats in the state are taking place with any party having over 300 members in the assembly. In the first Assembly polls after the independence, the Congress had won 388 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while in 1977 assembly polls, the Janata Party had secured 352 seats. “The state assembly with a total strength of 403 members currently has 395 members,” said an assembly secretarial official, adding it is necessary to secure votes of about 38 MLAs to win a Rajya Sabha seat from UP. Besides the BJP’s 304 MLAs and SP’s 48, the UP assembly has presently 18 BSP members, nine of Apna Dal, seven of the Congress four of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and five independents. For the seven vacant seats of the State assembly, bypolls are to be held on 3 November, the results of which will come on November 10. Political analyst Brijesh Shukla said, “This kind of election is going to happen after a long time. The number of Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party members is so limited that even if they get together, they are in no position to get any seat. Even if the entire opposition gets united, winning two seats will not be easy for them, he said. The entire opposition, in any case, is unlikely to unite, so only the Samajwadi Party can easily win one seat,” he added. The BJP may easily manage to win eight seats and if it tries harder, it may even win a ninth one, he said, pointing out the possibility of cross-voting by members of the opposition parties. In the biennial elections to Rajya Sabha two years ago, many MLAs had cross-voted, he recalled, adding two Congress MLAs and one BSP MLA have been quite vocal against their respective parties since last year. Another poll watcher Rajiv Ranjan Singh, who consistently monitors the socio-political activities in the state, said, “Political equations are tailored to immediate needs. The opposition parties will surely explore possibilities for themselves but the path is clear for the BJP. The Samajwadi Party will suffer the maximum losses in this election,” he predicted. The ten Rajya Sabha members from Uttar Pradesh, who are retiring on November 25 include three from BJP – Union minister Hardeep Singh Puri, Arun Singh and Neeraj Shekhar. Four retiring SP MPs are Chandrapal Singh Yadav, Ram Gopal Yadav, Ram Prakash Verma and Javed Ali Khan, while terms of two BSP MPs – Rajaram and Veer Singh are coming to an end. Also retiring is the Panna Lal Punia of the Congress. The Bharatiya Janata Party has an alliance with the Apna Dal but there is no agreement between other parties on the Rajya Sabha elections. UP has a quota of 31 seats in the Rajya Sabha, out of which BJP currently has 17, SP has eight, BSP has four and the Congress has two seats.