BJP is losing its lead over Cong: Modi effect wearing off?

Narendra Modi needs to take an urgent break from his frequent-flier programme to consider a few uncomfortable questions that are popping up everywhere. Have his rallies turned into political clones of T-20 games where people get together, scream, shout, clap, cheer and then go home after having a good time? Have Modi shows been reduced to item numbers in the overall tamasha of electioneering? And, finally, is Modi actually a factor in the ongoing Assembly elections? Trends forecast by recent opinion polls—including those by C Voter and ORG— indicate the gap between the BJP and the Congress is closing in on the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. In Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal’s party has its foot on the accelerator and the BJP is running out of fuel. Even in Rajasthan, the Congress is showing subtle signs of recovery. It’s all getting too close for Modi’s comfort. That the Congress is making a late recovery is not just surprising. It is shocking. [caption id=“attachment_1218003” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Is the Modi wave a myth? Reuters[/caption] Only a few weeks ago, the BJP was confident of a 4-0 verdict in the semi-finals to the battle for Delhi. The momentum should have only picked up after Modi’s entry into the fray and his rallies in the poll-bound states. But from the complete whitewash it predicted only a month ago, the BJP is now hoping that it doesn’t get any worse than 2-2 score. The predicted shift in momentum could make Modi more uncomfortable than his televised discomfiture at not getting LK Advani’s aashirvaad in spite of touching his feet at a Bhopal rally. If the BJP goes from good to worse even after his campaigns in the poll-bound states, Modi is bound to be equated with the Shahzada he loves to lampoon. Comparisons with Rahul Gandhi’s roadshows in Uttar Pradesh that drew big crowds and an even bigger failure would become the favourite line of argument for his rivals outside Congress. The Congress would, of course, not have the luxury of referring to the Rahul fable, but it can immediately pounce on Modi’s Karnataka record. Modi sympathizers would obviously argue that his magic is working. The surveys indicate that more people will vote for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections than in the Vidhan Sabha. In Delhi, for instance, the mood seems to be ‘Kejriwal for CM and Modi for PM’ with half of those supporting AAP willing to flip for Modi in Lok Sabha elections. Modi’s supporters can debate that the Vidhan Sabha polls are being fought on completely local issues. But, if that is the case, why should Modi be wasting his time campaigning in these states? Wouldn’t his time be better spent on verbal duels with Nitish Kumar or railing against Mulayam Singh and Sons? After all, UP and Bihar have more Lok Sabha seats than the combined strength of the 4 states he is currently campaigning in. The Modi army can claim that had he not been there, the BJP would have been in bigger trouble in some of these states. But that does not explain the slide in BJP’s fortunes after Modi began his campaign. If there was anti-incumbency against Raman Singh and Shivraj, people would not have taken note of it after going back home from Modi rallies. Clearly, something has gone wrong in the past few weeks. Are analysts getting it wrong when they say there is a Modi wave in north India? Perhaps the best way to read this election would be to view it as a fight between the aam aadmi and the UPA. Only this can explain the voter’s inclination for voting whoever is best placed to beat the Congress—Kejriwal in Delhi, Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan and Modi himself in Lok Sabha. It is possible that Modi is just one of the many symbols of public anger against the Congress. Will it then be wrong to argue that Modi is just the medium and not the message? If that is the case then Modi can’t afford to relax. The trends from MP and Chhattisgarh are clear indicators that wherever the Congress is getting its act together, it is gaining. If the Congress goes on to win Chhattisgarh and gives a tough fight in Madhya Pradesh, it would be a clear sign for the Grand Old Party that all is not lost. It would also be a signal that the people are voting against the Congress’s poor record and not because they are for the idea of Modi.