BJP ecstatic over poll results, can now call the shots with next J&K govt

The BJP may not have achieved its Mission 44 in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), but the party leadership is simply ecstatic about the results. It had always known that getting a majority in the state on its own was not a realistic proposition, but it was the kind of stretch target intended to energise the troops and achieve top-of-the-mind awareness in the electorate. Even those who did not vote for it kept talking about it. The actual result, getting around 25 seats, has matched the internal pre-poll assessments of the BJP’s senior leaders. In Jharkhand, the party has got the numbers to form a stable government along with its pre-poll ally. The only question is whether it will have to rope in an independent or two to complete the numbers or ask Babulal Marandi’s JVM(P), which got eight seats, to merge with the party to form a stable, standlone BJP government. This is the first time the BJP  has done so well in Jharkhand, where, in the past, it has only been part of shaky governments. The credit for this is being given largely to Narendra Modi’s connect with the masses. [caption id=“attachment_2005131” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Representational image. AFP[/caption] Party president Amit Shah is clearly a man on a winning streak having scored successive wins (or significant gains) in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and J&K after he took over earlier this year. However, he is unlikely to have a restful Christmas vacation, for two reasons: while he has to figure out how the BJP will participate in the J&K government, there is also the tougher Delhi assembly election looming in February. In J&K, Amit Shah is not willing to sit in the opposition after being the party with the largest popular vote. At a presser after the results, Shah said “all options are open” and went on to elaborate them: these include leading a government with the help of supportive parties (difficult), supporting a government from the outside (making it unstable) and, third, entering the government as an alliance partner (best option). The most logical choice would be the PDP heading a government with the BJP as partner, as the numbers look tough for a BJP-NC-independents coalition. The PDP has emerged as the single largest party and the National Conference has shrunk, but not as badly as some pre-poll surveys had predicted. From Shah’s assertions it seemed clear that the BJP would do everything possible to keep the Congress out of the power structure in the state. The Congress has been part of the past two coalitions in J&K, once with the PDP and the second time with the NC. The composition of the mandate, although fractured, is clear in one sense: the people in Jammu region have voted overwhelmingly for the BJP, while the people in the valley largely voted PDP. The only sore point for the BJP is that it couldn’t open its account in the valley or increase its vote percentage significantly, but it is not spending time wondering why. It is happy it has more than doubled its seats. The BJP leadership realises that the National Conference has been voted out and Chief Minister Omar Abdullah lost from one of the two constituencies he fought. Where he won, the margin was slender. Thus any kind of understanding with the NC at this stage may amount to a betrayal of the mandate. Abdullah himself said that a PDP-BJP alliance would work best and he was happy to remain in the opposition. But that has not stopped the BJP from opening up channels of communication with both NC and PDP. From the time counting trends started pouring in, PDP leaders have been making conciliatory statements towards the BJP. ‘All options are open’ seems to have suddenly become the post-poll themesong in J&K. Senior PDP leaders made it clear that the BJP, which rules at the centre and is the second largest party in the state, “can’t be an untouchable.” PDP chief Mufti Mohammad Sayeed has always been appreciative of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Mehbooba Mufti has, on some occasions in the past, appreciated Modi’s decision-making capacity. The BJP internally has always talked of a possible BJP-PDP coalition. Sajjad Lone has won and is expected to openly lend a supportive voice in the valley to Modi The BJP, however, will have make up its mind quickly. The Election Commission and the centre succeeded in conducting elections in J&K despite the difficult post-floods scenario. So President’s rule is not thinkable. Shah seemed to agree with this sentiment when he said that “we would surely like to see a popularly elected government take charge in the state.” In Jharkhand, the BJP has a majority with its ally, but the party may prefer to have a fully BJP-run state by inviting Babulal Marandi’s JVM(P) back to the fold.  If he agrees to join, the race for chief ministership in Jharkhand will become even more interesting. Former Chief Minister Arjun Munda has lost the elections, leaving the race wide open for others. Will BJP opt for a non-tribal? That’s big bold decision the party will have to mull over at its Parliamentary Board meeting on Wednesday, 24 December.