Bihar politics: Cornered to the wall, is the end of Lalu era not very far away?

Patna: The writing is on the wall, if only Lalu Prasad would read it. After close to 25 years of larger-than-life presence in Bihar’s politics, the RJD chief is fast receding into irrelevance. In politics it’s never wise to write a mass leader off, but in his case the indications are so eloquent that one can safely assert that the Lalu era in the state is finally coming to a close.[caption id=“attachment_2307356” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Lalu Prasad. AFP[/caption] One of the tallest leaders of the cow belt who not long ago straddled national politics and that of Bihar with ease riding the unflinching support of the Muslim and Yadav vote banks, Lalu gives the impression of being a spent force. His vote base is weakening; convicted in graft charges he can no longer lead the party with moral authority; he no longer commands the absolute loyalty of his party leaders; and he is virtually a friendless leader at this point with neither the Congress nor the JD(U) nor the Left considering him bankable. Add to the sorry mix a battle in the family over control of the party. Although the RJD leaders are not ready to admit this, a series of political developments in recent months indicate that Lalu is losing the grip over his voters, and by extension politics in the state. The latest evidence of it is the poor performance of the grand secular alliance in the recent elections to 24 seats of Bihar Legislative Council where it could win barely 10 seats against 13 of the NDA. It revealed that Lalu traditional supporters were no longer with him, and they simply did not want to take his word as command as earlier. Here are a few reasons why the Lalu era could be getting over: He can no more lead from the front: After his conviction in the fodder scam by the CBI court, Lalu cannot contest elections. Initially, his supporters rallied around him believing if not king, given his clout he would be king-maker in Bihar. Post his alliance with Nitish Kumar, where he ceded the chief minister’s position to the latter, they, particularly Yadavs, feel standing behind him is pointless. The community still considers Nitish its biggest enemy as he spoiled Lalu’s political career and launched several measures against members of the caste. According to Pappu Yadav, Lalu’s acolyte-turned-arch rival, who is trying hard to establish himself as the leader of the community, more than 8,000 Yadavs were killed during the 10 years of the Nitish regime. “Why would then they vote for the man who crushed Yadavs and projected them as responsible for the ‘jungle raj’ in Bihar?” asked Yadav. The Muslims who have stood behind Lalu all these years are wary of his diminishing clout too. He senses the mood but can do little to change it. No second line of leadership: As is typical of all one man-led parties, there’s no second rung leadership in the RJD. Lalu had a galaxy of credible leaders with good image around him but he never groomed any of them as potential successor. Perhaps, he was apprehensive of a coup. That’s the reason he entrusted the chief ministership to wife Rabri Devi reason when he went to jail in 1997. His brothers-in-law played havoc with the administration in his absence. Now, he appears more desperate to find slots in the party and state politics for his sons and daughters than allowing credible leaders take over. At this point, Lalu is focused on settling his children, especially his two unemployed sons Tep Pratap Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav, in politics. In the past fortnight, the presence of Lalu’s sons marked all the three functions of the RJD. This was first seen at a RJD programme in Mahua assembly segment of Vaishali district when Lalu tried to project his eldest son Tej Pratap as the party candidate for this seat. Again during the Iftar party hosted by the RJD, his sons were seen in a key role, welcoming and receiving the political guests. Finally during the RJD’s march to Raj Bhawan to protest withholding of caste-based census, both his sons accompanied Lalu in his open jeep. One of them even read out the RJD’s political resolution to the crowd. The corruption taint is indelible: Lalu’s taint has virtually turned him into a difficult to accept leader. How he is being kept at arm’s length is underlined from the fact that Lalu does not share any space with Nitish in the latter’s much-publicized Badh Chala Bihar campaign posters to woo voters. The poster carries only the image of Nitish, and none else—not even Lalu although the RJD is an alliance partner of Nitish and has staked claim for more seats in the assembly polls than JD(U). Also, Nitish has refused to share dais with Lalu in public twice in recent past – first during the Prajapati Samaj Chetna rally (potter caste) held on 18 April and then at Nishad (fishermen) Maharally held on 30 May at Patna’s Gandhi Maidan – as he does not like to share space with a leader who has been sentenced to jail term. The RJD chief’s inability to transfer his party votes to the JD(U) has Nitish looking for other options. He has turned to Arvind Kejriwal to cash in on his clean image. Observers say Nitish is cosying up to Kejriwal to balance the possible damage from his association with Lalu. Even the Congress is not too enthusiastic about being seen in the company of the RJD chief. Non-cooperation from within: A number of senior RJD leaders are not ‘cooperating’ with Lalu after finding themselves sidelined after the RJD chief’s new-found love for Nitish. Prior to this new friendship, Lalu hugely relied on leaders like Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, Jagadanand Singh, Prabhunath Singh and also Mohammad Taslimuddin but now all these faces are missing from key party meetings. Of them, only Raghuvansh Praasd Singh has been quite vocal whereas the remaining three have gone totally silent. The reason is not difficult to seek. Is it the beginning of the end of Lalu?