Bihar exit polls: Lalu Prasad's victory speech is premature; results are still tied

At 6 pm, exactly one hour after the fifth and final phase of polling concluded, and exit polls on various news channels started giving an edge to the Mahagathbandhan, Lalu Prasad Yadav began the broadcast of his victory speech.

He clearly seemed to be in a hurry to claim victory. But he still is not satisfied with the marginal edge that most pollsters have given to him. He claimed that his alliance would win 190 seats. He also reiterated his ‘agda-pichd’ agenda. “Unchi jati ke log bhotar ho gaye hai (upper caste people have become mentally slow)," he said.

Lalu’s post poll statement is important because if the broad trends of exit polls were to translate to reality then Nitish Kumar will have a tough time in containing Lalu and his socially divisive casteist agenda.

About half-an-hour after Lalu finished his nationally televised victory speech, News 24-Today Chanakya exit polls made its big breaking news (prediction) announcement – NDA is winning it decisively. It gave the BJP-led alliance 155 seats and the Mahagthbadhan 83.

While nobody can vouch for Today Chanakaya’s prediction, in many previous elections, including those in different states as also in the parliamentary elections and in Delhi polls its predictions have been closer to the actual result. News 24 predictions thus made the whole exit poll far more interesting and exciting. Another channel, NewsX, predicted a decisive victory for the JD-RJD-Congress combine, giving them 130-140 seats and 90-100 seats to the NDA.

Any election certainly qualifies as an interesting one if it leaves pollsters and researchers sharply divided, if not confused. Aaj Tak-Cicero predicted a very tight contest with a thin majority to the BJP-led NDA with 127 seats (upper limit). It gave Mahagathbandhan 123. Times Now and India TV, both relying on C-Voter, gave a thin edge to the Nitish-led coalition — 122 to 111 of the NDA.

ABP-Nielson gave a phase-wise prediction. It suggested that the NDA and Grand Coalition roughly scored an even number of seats in the first two phases but swept the third phase with 37 seats in a total of 50 seats. Third phase predictions have surprised many because this phase was in BJP stronghold areas. BJP took a lead in fourth phase but as expected it lagged behind in fifth and final phase.

In recent memory in no other election pollsters have come out with such conflicting predictions. The mean or poll of polls of six channel suggests 119 for the Mahagthbandhan and 117 for the NDA. With three percent margin of error this election could go either way. November 8 will be interesting.