Bihar elections: Jostling between new allies for seats could mar BJP's poll prospects

Patna: Prime Minister Narendra Modi may be trying to score points over his arch-rival Nitish Kumar, but his party, the BJP that is battling hard to take control of Bihar, faces an entirely new problem on the ground: How to tackle its over-ambitious alliance partners. With the party’s allies currently playing a curious game of numerical supremacy among themselves to prove they have the largest support base among the lot, their support to the BJP is likely to come at a cost! The BJP embarked on a mission of befriending almost every potential player in Bihar who opposed the Grand Secular Alliance directly or indirectly. What started off as a bid to “checkmate” Nitish in his den has spiralled out of control and messed up the BJP’s “Bihar plan” that was designed to claim a majority on its own, with the support of its allies. The problem with the saffron party is that each of its three alliance partners want to contest as many seats as possible in Bihar, never mind the fact that two of them — Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) led by Bihar’s new Dalit icon Jitan Ram Manjhi and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) headed by Union state minister Upendra Kushwaha — are making their electoral debuts in the Assembly polls and their credibility is yet to be formally tested. So, in practical terms, if the BJP agrees to accept their demands, it will be left with less than 50 seats to contest, as opposed to the 170+ seats it originally set out to contest! The party did not want to spare more than 70 seats for its allies. [caption id=“attachment_2383302” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] File photo of former Bihar CM Jitan Manjhi. PTI[/caption] The BJP now finds itself sandwiched between its allies, who also are pressing for the early settlement of seat-sharing deals so that they can focus on their respective constituencies, particularly since the elections are not very far away. Manjhi, whose party is the latest entrant to the NDA, has staked claim to over 60 seats, citing the number of its sitting legislators and the seats reserved for Dalits in the Bihar Assembly. His logic is that 40 of state’s 243 seats are reserved for SC/STs while there are around 20 other constituencies where Dalit voters hold significant sway. He has already threatened time and gain to walk out of the NDA should his party not be allowed to contest a “respectable” number of seats, which has forced the BJP leadership, including party president Amit Shah, to intervene. But this move has only temporarily calmed Manjhi, who is known for changing his stand very frequently. He received a major morale boost after his newly-formed party was recognised and then allotted a poll symbol by the Election Commission (EC). With this good news coming barely days before the EC is to announce poll dates for Bihar, Manjhi finds himself on cloud nine and in no mood to let seats slip through his fingers. The inside story is that the BJP is not willing to spare more than 20 seats to the HAM, given that most rebel JD-U legislators — who rallied around Manjhi during the bitter power struggle between him and Nitish in February — are now ready to join the saffron party. Also, the BJP neither trusts Manjhi completely, as a result of his wavering stands, nor is it confident of his acceptability among the entire spectrum of Dalits. His chief ministerial ambition is another potential cause for concern to the BJP. Although Manji has refrained from making his ambitions public since joining the NDA in June, this sentiment is reflected in his statements. “I don’t want to be the chief minister, but will also not run away if given the responsibility to run the state,” he says. Kushwaha, another NDA ally, who harbours dreams of becoming chief minister, has his own formula of seat-sharing. According to him, the BJP should not look to contest more than 102 seats — the number it had contested for the past 10 years in alliance with the JD-U.  Meanwhile, the remaining 141 seats, he says, should be distributed between his RLSP and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) helmed by another Dalit leader Ram Vilas Paswan. While Kushwaha wants to contest 67 seats, he wants the remaining 74 seats to be given to the LJP. But, the BJP has other ideas. Considering the RSLP only won three seats during the 2014 Lok Sabha (LS) elections, the BJP is only willing to spare a maximum of 18-20 seats for Kushwaha’s party. The saffron party’s contention is that a single LS constituency comprises six Assembly segments. On that basis, Kushwaha is entitled to get a maximum of 18 seats. Paswan has set his sights on contesting between 75 and 80 seats, and the LJP has articulated this demand many times in the past. Earlier this week, Paswan’s parliamentarian son, Chirag said he had identified 75-80 seats where his party’s standing is very strong. “I have found my party’s situation quite stronger on these seats. I myself have visited these areas to assess the situation,” he claimed, seeking the immediate distribution of seats among allies. In the last LS elections, the LJP had emerged victorious in six out of the seven seats it contested in alliance with the BJP. But, the maximum the BJP is willing to give the LJP is 30 seats, say party insiders. There is yet another problem for the BJP which could harm its prospects if not tackled with care. Paswan and Manjhi are locked in a bitter war of one-upmanship to show that they are the real leader of the Dalits. So far, Paswan has been flaunting himself as the unchallenged leader of the Dalits, but with the entry of Manjhi, his status seems to have been undermined. The LJP leader enjoys the support of roughly four percent of his fellow Paswan (Dusadh) community, while Manjhi claims to have the support of 22-23 percent of the Mahadalit community comprising 21 castes. The prevailing ‘war of attrition’ between the two came to the fore recently when the LJP declared to put up candidates against some of the Manjhi’s probable candidates like Narendra Singh, Sumit Kumar Singh, Ajay Pratap, Raju Singh, Ajit Kumar and Anil Singh who had deserted the LJP and joined the JD-U in the past. It is well-known that loyalty has no place in today’s brand of politics, where politicians regularly switch sides to climb up the ladder of power. Even Paswan himself has switched his loyalty which subsequently ensured him ministerial berths in nearly every government that was formed at the Centre: From the National Front (1989-91) headed by VP Singh, United Front (1996-98) headed by HD Deve Gowda and IK Gujaral, NDA (1999-2004) headed by AB Vajpayee, and UPA (2004-2014) headed by Manmohan Singh to the NDA (2014 onwards) headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The grounds on which the LJP has chosen to oppose Manjhi therefore sound flimsy. This indicates Paswan’s growing rivalry with Manjhi, which could ultimately be damaging to the NDA’s poll prospects.