Ban on opinion polls won't change outcome for the Congress

The Election Commission believes that opinion polls negatively impact the actual voting pattern of the electorate and thus could be an impediment in free and fair elections. The Congress party too believes the same. [caption id=“attachment_121041” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  All polls have predicted that the Congress is losing heavily. (Representational image.) AFP[/caption] To make it simpler, the ruling party at the Centre and other protagonists of the proposed ban, have unanimity of opinion that if these surveys are not banned immediately then the Congress, as predicted by these polls, will lose in four of the five states that will see Assembly elections in the coming months. Opinion polls on coming elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi say the final tally for the Congress would read 0-4. More so, the argument would imply that the victory or loss margin for the two principal parties concerned, BJP and the Congress, may further be impacted because these polls would set off a herd mentality among the electorate. Almost all the poll surveys, including the latest by CNN-IBN, show that the Congress is losing heavily to the BJP in three states – Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan – while is is set to lose power in Delhi after 15 years though there is no clear picture yet on who could be the winner. Does this mean that in the absence of opinion polls, voters will have the leisure of weighing political options on merit and will therefore have a greater tendency to vote for the Congress? Going by the logic of those in favour of banning opinion polls, the ban should give the Congress a greater chance of favourably changing the score line, retaining Delhi and Rajasthan, winning either or both the states currently held by the BJP, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. This is absurd logic, but that is the simple inference of the Congress’s logic behind seeking a ban on the surveys. The Congress should always remember that if surveys could so largely influence voting patterns, then the NDA would not have lost power in 2004. The EC has proposed that opinion polls be banned from the day the Commission announces poll dates till the final phase of polling. Opinion polls are in any case meaningless after elections have been held. Before going into merits of the ban, consider one simple fact. The real test of pollsters is to do an opinion poll and prediction close to the elections. Apart from committed voters, most people take a call on their preference during this period, and this decision is dependent on many variables. An election, once upon a time, was like a political festival – banners, posters, party flags, graffiti, etc would create just the right ambience to keep the poll mood alive. Thanks to Election Commission’s reforms including a strict vigil on expenditure, the poll process has become a more mundane affair where one sometimes has to struggle even to get the names of the candidates right. With restrictions on opinion polls already in place till 5 pm of the last phase of the polling of that state or states clubbed in place, opinion polls are the only last relic of that poll festivity. It is nobody’s case that all the surveys are always right but surely over a period of time the major pollsters have improved on their strike rate. Why is the Election Commission hell bent on depriving the electorate of something that makes an interesting pre-poll talking point? Nobody is bribing a voter. Indeed it is a legitimate research and commercial exercise. But it also always puts the credibility of a news channel, newspaper, magazine and a survey agency on the firing line. No one spares the media house and the agency if they go horribly wrong. Congress general secretary Digvijaya Singh questions the very idea of an opinion poll: “What’s the scientific method these agencies follow? How can a small sample size reflect the trend in the entire nation?" He also wants a ban because, as he claims, he had once been “approached by an agency which was willing to do a poll favourable to Congress for a huge sum." Good that he refused to hire that agency, but should that incident and that racketeer’s audacity be reason enough to enforce a ban on opinion polls? C-Voter Editor Yashwant Deshmukh says: “This is the most absurd argument from the establishment because the Government of India itself run the huge outfit of NSSO; which has the sole work of carrying out sample surveys and opinion polls based on which the Government make all the plans and takes policy decision.” Incidentally, the Congress shifted from its stated position after some more poll surveys indicated that Congress could face a rout in these elections. A fortnight ago, the Congress, while raising questions on the credibility of pre-poll surveys, underlined that it was not in favour of a ban. Leader of Opposition Arun Jaitley raises a larger issue. He links this with constitutional guarantee of freedom of speech. “No restriction can be imposed on the right to free speech either by the Government or by the Election Commission which falls outside the purview of any of the above circumstances.” His argument is that crying foul on opinion polls and seeking a ban is sign of a loser. “A ban on such polls can not be considered based on who is demanding the ban. Clearly, polls are also a part of free speech. Restricting them is constitutionally neither permissible nor desirable. The Election Commission will be best advised to keep away from this controversy and allow the market place of democracy to accept or reject the findings of the opinion poll. If the polls can be legitimately banned in this country, the next step would be to ban political commentators from giving assessments favourable to some and adverse to some others. A potential loser in an election can not seek to alter the rules of Free Speech,” Jaitley has written. Opinion polls were conducted for the first time before the 1957 general elections by the Indian Institute of Public Opinion, headed by Eric da Costa, hailed as the pioneer of the exercise in India. In the past 20 years, the publication of opinion polls have become a regular affair. Yashwant Deshmukh makes a point that the “argument that opinion polls impact voting patterns and give wrong predictions is dichotomous. If opinion polls tend to swing votes in favor of those who are shown as winning the poll battle, then only those political parties or candidate should win elections, which are predicted to emerge victorious.” This is not the case. “Even if we hypothetically consider that this hypotheses is correct and opinion polls actually do affect the voting behavior of Voters; then the counter argument is: What’s wrong with that? Democracy is all about making informed choices. People are free to consume different information from different sources and take a decision on these information.”