Badal swearing-in could be start of political realignments

Three days from now, a peculiar planetary alignment will take place, and Congress leaders given to faith in astrology are living in mortal fear that the alignment may have profound malefic influence on their party and the UPA government that it heads at the Centre. Shiromoni Akali Dal veteran Parkash Singh Badal will be sworn in at a lavish ceremony in Chandigarh on 14 March, and the list of invitees is a pointer to the political realignments that may have been triggered by the recent round of Assembly elections. [caption id=“attachment_240156” align=“alignright” width=“380” caption=“The Badal swearing-in will witness a curious alignment of political planets. PTI”] [/caption] An entire galaxy of non-Congress politicians, including some whose parties appear to be spinning out of the UPA orbit, is expected to attend. And although Congress Chief Ministers – in Kerala and Andhra Pradesh – too have been invited as a measure of courtesy (it is not clear if they will attend), analysts are reading the guest list as a tentative exploration of an anti-Congress configuration that could cut short the tenure of the UPA government and advance the prospects of a mid-term election. In particular, the likely attendance of West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee – at the swearing-in of Badal on 14 March and at the swearing-in of Samajwadi Party’s ‘chotta neta’ Akhilesh Yadav in Lucknow on 15 March – has set Congress leaders’ hearts palpitating in fear that ‘Didi’, who has kept the UPA on tenterhooks, is preparing to pull the plug on the government. Mamata Banerjee herself said on Saturday afternoon that she had not decided whether she would attend the event in Chandigarh. (The invitation to the Lucknow event came in only later in the day.) There had been speculation that she did not exactly relish the prospect of going to Chandigarh and attending an event where the BJP, an ally of Badal’s SAD, would have a high-profile participation. Her fear was that she would have been ‘tainted’ by association, however tenuous, by sharing a stage with the BJP. Also, 14 March marks the anniversary of the Nandigram firing in West Bengal, a politically emotive issue that holds particular significance for Banerjee, who leveraged it for much political gain against the then Left Front government. She could have used that as a reason to decline Badal’s invitation. But the invitation from the Samajwadi Party to Didi to attend the Lucknow swearing-in on 15 March, which was received in Kolkata late on Saturday, appears to have allowed her to overcome her inhibitions. Since the SP is perceived as being “secular”, Didi perhaps calculates that it gives her a cover for her attendance at the Badal swearing-in too, despite the BJP’s participation, by explaining it away as motivated by “political courtesy” without any overhang. Late on Saturday, Trinamool Congress MP Derek O’Brien confirmed that “Mamatadi” would be going to both Lucknow and Chandigarh for the swearing-in ceremonies. Trinamool Congress leaders are at pains to emphasise that no political message should be read into Didi’s participation in these events. But that has not been enough to tame the liveliest apprehensions of Congress leaders. On Saturday, Congress general secretary Shakeel Ahmed called on Didi in Koklata, evidently to read her mind and secure assurances that her party wouldn’t rock the UPA boat during the upcoming Budget session of parliament. Banerjee is believed to have told him that Trinamool MPs would speak up in defence of West Bengal’s financial interests, but that it would be unfair to construe it as opposition to the Congress. Clearly, Mamata Banerjee is looking to milk the UPA government for what she can by keeping the Congress guessing about her intentions. Her party’s leverage over the Congress has been enhanced after the recent round of Assembly elections, and she is looking to leverage it for maximum gain until an opportune moment comes along for her to sever her ties to the Congress. Banerjee isn’t the only leader from within the UPA who has been invited to the Badal swearing-in ceremony (although she is the one whose participation gives the Congress the jitters). National Conference leaders Farooq Abdullah (who is a Union Minister) and Omar Abdullah are expected to attend; Maharashtra strongman Sharad Pawar too has been invited. Chief Ministers Narendra Modi (Gujarat), Nitish Kumar (Bihar) and Shivraj Chauhan (Madhya Pradesh) are certain to attend the lavish ceremony. And although Chief Ministers Jayalalithaa (Tamil Nadu), Oomen Chandy (Kerala) and Kiran Kumar Reddy (Andhra Pradesh) too have been invited, they will likely not attend. Jayalalithaa has cited an upcoming Assembly byelection as the reason, but will depute party leaders to attend. It promises to be one lively party in Chandigarh next week. For Congress leaders, however, the bhangra beats that will doubtless resonate will heighten the palpitations in their hearts. For a party that is frightened of its own shadow, the prospect of emerging political realignments will give yet more cause for alarm.