Assembly Election 2021, Chavara profile: RSP veteran Shibu Baby John to lock horns with late LDF MLA's son

In 2016, John came in second behind Vijayan and lost out with nearly 6,000 votes. In 2011, he had cinched a win against RCP's NK Premchandran with a margin of over 6,000 votes

FP Research April 04, 2021 15:37:24 IST pollpedia
Assembly Election 2021, Chavara profile: RSP veteran Shibu Baby John to lock horns with late LDF MLA's son

Chavara Assembly Election 2021 | Chavara is an Assembly constituency in the Kollam district of Kerala. It is one of the seven Assembly seats that fall under the Kollam Lok Sabha constituency. The election to the state will be held on 6 April and results will be out on 2 May.

N Vijayan Pillai of a CPM faction group was elected from the constituency. However, the seat became empty after his demise in March 2020.

LDF has fielded Sujith Vijayan as an Independent. The Congress-led UDF meanwhile has fielded RSP's Shibu Baby John. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has fielded Vivek Gopan from the seat.

Past election and results

Kollam district witnessed a spectacular red wave in 2016, becoming the only district to have elected a Left Democratic Front candidate in all Assembly segments. The constituency of Chavara, however, has largely been an RSP bastion.

Even Vijayan, the MLA whose death left the seat vacant last year, also traces his political roots to RSP before changing parties several times in his career.  Since its inception, the constituency has elected either an RSP candidate or party rebels fighting under the banner of a splinter group.

Pillai was the first non-RSP candidate to have breached the UDF ally's fort.

This year, however, with Vijayan's death the LDF has fielded his son Sujith who is a qualified doctor but a political novice. The RSP has fielded its old warhorse Shibu Baby John, who has won all elections from 1977 to 1996 for RSP, then has also won 2001 and 2011 elections as a rebel candidate under the banner of RSP splinter group KRSP(B).

In 2016, John came in second behind Vijayan and lost out with nearly 6,000 votes. In 2011, he had clinched a win against RCP's NK Premchandran with a margin of over 6,000 votes.

Elections in Kerala have traditionally been a contest between the UDF and the LDF with power swinging between the two groups.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Congress-led UDF had won 19 out of the state’s 20 Lok Sabha seats banking on incumbency against the ruling LDF. However, repeating a similar feat in the Assembly polls is going to be an uphill task for the UDF.

The LDF has not only managed to overcome anti-incumbency in the 2020 local body polls, but also managed to make inroads into UDF vote-banks, particularly in Thrissur, Ernakulam, and Kottayam districts.

The NDA, which is emerging as a third front in Kerala, will be hoping to increase its tally in the Assembly polls. However, given that the BJP-led NDA didn't meet the expectations in the 2020 local body polls despite making gains, its ability to impact either the UDF's or LDF's prospects in the Assembly election remains unclear.

In the local body polls, however, the people have shown a clear preference towards the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF). Since 1979, only once, in 2010, has the United Democratic Front (UDF) upset the apple cart.

Total electors, voter turnout, population

Electors: According to the Election Commission of India, the total number of registered electors in the state is 2,67,31,509, including 1,29,52,025 male, 1,37,79,263 female and 211 third gender voters.

In the district of Kollam alone, there are 20,93,511 voters of which 9,97,190 are male and 10,96,308 are female. There are 13 third-gender voters in the district.

The Chavara constituency has 1,77,515 registered voters ahead of the 2021 elections of which 86,550 are male and 90,964 are female. One voter has registered themselves as third gender.

Voter Turnout: The overall voter turnout during the 2016 Assembly election was 77.35 percent. The percentage voter turnout of women voters excluding the postal ballot was 75.97 percent and that of men voters excluding postal ballot was 78.14 percent.

At least 78.09 percent of registered voters had come out to vote in the Chavara Assembly constituency, of which 74.74 percent were male and 81.24 percent were females.

Population and demography: Total population of the Kollam district is 2,635,375 as per census 2011. Hindus constitute 64.42 percent of the Kollam population. Muslims are in minority in the Kollam district, forming 19.30 percent of the total population here. Christians constitute of the 16 percent of the population.

Out of the total Kollam population for 2011 census, 45.05 percent lives in urban regions of district, whereas 54.95 percent of its population lives in rural areas.

Election date and timing

The Kerala Assembly/Niyama Sabha polls will be held on 6 April, 2021, along with Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The day will also see phase three polls in Assam and West Bengal. The counting of votes will be done on 2 May.

The Kerala Legislative Assembly (Vidhan Sabha) has a total number of 140 seats, of which, 14 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Castes and two seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes.

The outgoing Assembly has eight female MLAs and rest 132 are male MLAs. The current Kerala Niyamasabha session will expire on 1 June 2021.

Updated Date:

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