As MNS gains, we could see a Raj-Modi axis the next time

Guess who the real winner of the recently-held Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election (BMC) is. The answer is not the Shiv Sena-BJP combine, which will surely get to form the council with help from independents. The answer is Raj Thackeray of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). And, to a lesser extent, the BJP. Two reasons why. [caption id=“attachment_218598” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Raj Thackeray. AFP”]  [/caption] The first reason lies not in the number of seats Raj got in Mumbai (which, at 28 out of 227, is impressive, but not mind-blowing), but in the fact that he has now clearly established himself as an alternative to the Sena. Even more significant, he cannot be called the Sena spoiler any more. He is a power in his own right – and this is a threat to the Congress-NCP combine, too. This fact is reflected in one number: the MNS’s share of vote. In the BMC election, the Shiv Sena got 21.3 percent of the popular vote, while Raj Thackeray got 20 percent. This means he has more or less drawn level with the Sena even when his uncle Bal Thackeray is around. And Raj has nowhere to go but up. The second reason is Narendra Modi. Raj Thackeray established an equation with Modi when he visited Gujarat last year. In fact, in September last year, Raj went so far as to suggest that he would support Modi’s candidature for prime ministership – if the question did arise. He said: “I will support Narendra Modi for becoming Prime Minister. This country needs good governance and a good leader.” (See what he has said about Modi then, and more recently to The Indian Express). This is why the second winner of the municipal election is the BJP, which got 8.6 percent of the vote, up from 8.2 percent in 2007. The gain is not in the fractional 0.4 percent rise in its percentage vote share, but in what it means for the future. In the next round – whether in state or national elections - the BJP has the option to tie up with either the Sena or the MNS, knowing its vote will tilt the balance. It gains power as a potential kingmaker – though one could say the same for parties like the Samajwadi (4.4 percent), or the Nationalist Congress Party (6.3 percent). Since the fight is for the core Marathi manoos vote – which Raj Thackeray seems to have substantially captured – the BJP can bring in the complementary vote outside the core Marathi vote in Mumbai. Modi can swing the strong Gujarati vote in Mumbai for Raj. If one were to take the Modi-Raj Thackeray axis, and look at what could happen in 2014 – a BJP-MNS team-up is a clear possibility. As a party that has established its salience in Mumbai and large parts of Maharashtra but which has no responsibility to deliver governance (except in Nashik, where it is looking to BJP support to lead the council, where MNS is the largest party), the MNS holds all the high cards right now. According to an analysis by The Times of India, in the eastern suburbs of Mumbai, the MNS actually went far ahead of the Sena in terms of votes polled (2.82 lakh versus the Sena’s 2.32 lakh). The newspaper quotes psephologist Uday Nirgudkar as saying: “The figures clearly establish a change of guard in Mumbai’s electoral voting pattern. While it may look like a clear case of the MNS having gained on account of the Congress, there is a strong possibility of the MNS attracting a large chunk of new voters." From the numbers, it seems like both Sena and BJP held on to their numbers while Congress and NCP lost out in Mumbai – with MNS being the gainer. However, this turns the old idea – of Raj Thackeray being the spoiler for the Sena – on its head. If many new voters are voting Raj Thackeray and not the Sena, it means the MNS is attracting the youth vote at the cost of all parties – and not just the Sena. This is ominous for the Sena, but equally worrying for the Congress-NCP combine. The Congress’ B-team – as the MNS was dubbed when it took away votes from the Sena-BJP in the last Lok Sabha elections – has now become its nemesis as well. The game is tilting in favour of Balasaheb Thackeray’s nephew in the Thackeray versus Thackeray contest.