Arvind Kejriwal to form govt in Delhi, but can he deliver?

Now that the Aam Admi Party has completed the formality of a so called referendum on whether it should form the government, Arvind Kejriwal will have no qualms about accepting the support of a “corrupt” and “evil” Congress and take charge as chief minister of the National Capital Territory of Delhi. That could well be a welcome pragmatist turn by an idealist who is carrying the burden of expectations from lakhs in the city. The Congress, after hurriedly extending unconditional support and then writing a rather submissive letter of agreement to Kejriwal’s 18 demands, is finding itself in a hugely uncomfortable position. Despite being decimated in the elections, its eight MLAs will have the luxury of sitting in the treasury benches, but only as discards. Kejriwal and his team will no doubt be testing the patience limits of Congress leaders on a daily basis. The BJP, the largest party in the Delhi Assembly, will sit in the Opposition, its leaders ruing  their fate and mulling whether they would not have been better placed had the party announced the name of Dr Harsh Vardhan as chief ministerial nominee earlier. Despite finishing first, they will occupy the loser’s slot. That’s an irony BJP leaders are finding too difficult to digest. The good thing is that Delhi is finally getting a popular government. Kejriwal has to be credited with ushering in a new style of politics and stirring the two principal parties of the Indian polity from their complacency and traditional chalta hai attitude. In another first, Kejriwal will commute daily from the boundaries of another state (he lives in an official accommodation provided by the Income Tax department to his wife in Kaushambi in Ghaziabad, UP) to come to office as Delhi’s CM. From there begin the contradictions of the Aam Admi Party’s rule. By finding a way to justify taking the Congress’s support and making a U-turn from its stated position of “not giving and not taking support of BJP and Congress”, Kejriwal has shown he can learn the fine art of realpolitik rather  fast. [caption id=“attachment_1301895” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] The next government of Delhi? PTI image[/caption] Kejriwal will now have to decide whether he will commute everyday or whether he will look for accommodation in Delhi. As chief minister he is entitled to an official bungalow and a whole lot of other perks but going by his promises in his manifesto, he may not be able to accept them.  His deputy in the Delhi Assembly Manish Sishodia is also a resident of Ghaziabad in UP. Other party colleagues, though many are crorepatis, have promised to travel by bus, metro and other means of public transport. The MLAs in any case don’t get official accommodation in Delhi. How Kejriwal handles this apparently trivial situation would be interesting, given that it is such detailing that has contributed to his and his party’s success. At work, Kejriwal has sold the dream of a corruption-free state, where electricity bills would be reduced by 50 percent, 700 litres of free water reaches households even in unaccessible and unauthorised localities, where residents’ associations will lord over government babus in deciding whether or not a contractor should be paid, where there are many more good schools and hospitals, where a Jan Lokpal will contain all public wrongs…  the list goes on. Riding to power on a huge anti-establishment mood that has prevailed in the capital since the days of Anna’s movement in April 2011, Kejriwal is now seen as a messiah, but delivery on the promises he has made will be tougher. Kejriwal has mentioned that the Congress being unlikely to pull down his government for the next six months until Parliamentary elections are held, the AAP can use that time to implement his promised schemes. The idea was make hurried announcements, even if these are unsustainable economically, administratively or even constitutionally. The AAP can then exit as martyrs, retaining popular sympathies for the next elections. The question is how far Kejriwal will go. He can in no way reduce power tariff by 50 percent. He knows that, so do his team members. Fixing electricity tariffs, least of all reducing it by half, is beyond the statutory mandate of Delhi government. That’s in the DERC’s  (Delhi Electricity Regulation Commission) domain. The revenue gap for year 2011-12 as per the regulator’s report for three discoms (electricity distribution companies) was Rs 11,431 crore. By the turn of this year, that sum would have grown by a few hundred crores. The city government is bound by the national tariff policy to liquidate that by next year. The regulator has to address the issue. The distribution companies claim that they have no money to purchase power for the summer. And because of their poor financial state, they are unable to secure loans from banks. If their financial position worsens, they will have no money to purchase power for the summer. The only way Kejriwal can reduce tariff by half is through a state subsidy. The regulator is making a case for hike in power tariff. Going by the current estimates, Kejriwal would need to give a subsidy to the tune of around Rs 3000 crore to reduce electricity bill by half for the domestic consumers in the city, even if industrial, commercial and other rates are left untouched. He will also soon need to liquidate over Rs 12,000 crore of regulatory assets. The regulator is already making a case for increase in tariff. Under the circumstances, how Kejriwal will reduce the tariff by half is anybody’s guess. If he offers subsidy then he will have to levy other forms of taxations, which could be very steep. His 700 litres of free water for every household will cost over Rs 400 crore to the exchequer – but that is easily manageable, AAP says. Fulfilling his other promises on new hospitals, schools, empowering mohalla committee to boss over babus are equally or perhaps more problematic because Delhi being only half a state in statute books, does not have land, law and order, and municipal corporation under its control. It needs to central clearance and active support for some promises to be implemented on the ground and in some other an amendment in the Delhi Municipal Act, which again can be done only by the Parliament, not by Delhi assembly. On Kejriwal’s other promise of passing Jan Lokpal at Ramlila ground, the Parliament has already passed the Lokpal bill and Delhi already has a Lokayukta in place, so he can at best effect an amendment in Lokayukta Act. But an amendment in Lokayukata Act does not sound as fashionable as passing the Lokpal bill at Ramlila Maidan does. The politician in Kejriwal has made a beginning. He can deliver on the populist promises in the short term and go out claiming to have done what he promised, seeking a re-election. But the cost will be steep. But just as Kejriwal makes this beginning, senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley mounted a frontal attack on him. On Sunday, Jaitley wrote, “How does the AAP justify a volte face where it seems to be compromising on its commitments of alternative politics. Obviously, political opportunism should have no place in alternative politics dictated by idealism. The AAP may be concerned with the fact that many MLAs including the AAP MLAs do not want an early poll. It may even be strategizing on how to capture power, announce a few popular decisions and carve out a further positioning for itself. For any of these strategies to prevail the AAP has to somersault from its stated position. It has to retract its public commitments of not accepting support from the Congress Party. It has, therefore, decided to enact a farcical referendum. This referendum has a self-serving model. Motley crowds are collected all over the town whose support is sought. A question is asked whether AAP should form a government. Obviously, they are all thrilled with the idea. In the process, a statistical wonder is produced wherein less than 30% people voted for AAP in the election but more than 75% want it to form a government.” “In effect, political opportunism is being masked with the idea of popular sanction behind it. A space is being created wherein its leaders could argue, ‘we were not hungry for power, we would not be taking Congress Party’s support. But we are democrats who are now bowing to the popular will of the people’. It is the people who want AAP to form the Government with Congress support. Is this the beginning of the alternative politics or the end of it,” Jaitley wrote. Kejriwal can take such criticisms in stride if he can deliver on the promises. He has a difficult road ahead for now he is no longer an activist punching holes in the system but will be heading the system that he intends to change.