Are Delhi exit polls wrong? BJP internal review gives party 36-39 seats

It’s not over till the fat lady sings. At least that’s the attitude of the BJP in the wake of all the exit polls for the Delhi elections predicting that Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party is poised to win an outright majority in the national capital. Shrugging off all the exit polls that have indicated that AAP was poised to form the next government, an internal review by BJP Delhi chief Satish Upadhyay soon after the polls has reportedly convinced the party that there is no real need to worry. As reported by the Times of India : [caption id=“attachment_2087637” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] BJP Delhi chief Satish Upadhyay. PTI[/caption] “Sources say, after the assessment, the party is hopeful of getting 36-39 seats. “Though we didn’t arrive at a number, it seems we will get above 36 seats,” said a party member. Another internal survey has given BJP 34 seats indicating another hung assembly in Delhi” The TOI report added that “in the meeting, which stretched over an hour, candidates were asked to give a rough estimate of victory margins. Sources say, 67 candidates were confident of winning by a respectable margin, three couldn’t say anything about their constituencies. While the party is confident of its victory, sources say, the victory margins are likely to be narrow on several seats.” Meanwhile Economic Times said the party’s internal poll said it would win 34 seats comfortably and lose 20. In 16 seats, the party has predicted a close contest. “There will be a close fight in some seats but on the whole the ground reports present a good picture. We have analysed every seat and we are confident we are winning,” the paper quoted Kiran Bedi as saying. Soon after the meeting, BJP CM candidate Kiran Bedi tweeted saying, that the news was encouraging.

The exit polls released soon after polling ended in Delhi have not given the BJP much to smile about. Save the little known Datermineria, which said that the BJP would be the largest party in the assembly, every other exit poll, including that of Today’s Chanakya gave AAP a clear majority. Here is a look at all the exit poll predictions: Despite the internal review however, the BJP is clearly aware that defeat in the polls is still a very real possibility. And as such the party has already begun doing some soul searching to explain a loss. The Economic Times said two top state leaders told the newspaper that it has been conveyed to the central leadership that if the party loses, the blame would lie on the Kiran Bedi factor and the personal attacks made by the party on Arvind Kejriwal. As pointed out by Firstpost editor in chief R Jagannathan, the BJP made several key mistakes in the Delhi polls, which they would do well to rectify even if the party ends up squeaking through. Apart from the factors mentioned by the state BJP leaders to ET, the BJP also erred in delaying the election giving Kejriwal time to regroup, and misjudging the impact of a collapsing Congress. The other big challenge for the BJP, win or lose, is fighting the perception that the poll results are an indication that the Modi magic is already fading. Two days ahead of the Delhi polls, BJP chief Amit Shah has contended that the election outcome cannot be a referendum on the functioning of the Modi government. Shah’s comments are in line with the remarks of Union Minister M Venkaiah Naidu on Delhi polls. “It is true that it is an election for Chief Ministership. The election in a state cannot be a referendum (about Centre’s functioning).” And while this may yet be the case, don’t expect opposition parties across the country to look for the shades of grey in this BJP performance. From Nitish Kumar to Mamata Banerjee, this Delhi result may be just the fillip they need to take down the BJP in their respective states.