AP, Rajasthan & Haryana are Congress' weak spots now

How will voters make their choice if Lok Sabha or Assembly elections were to be held today? The picture that emerges from the big states polled by the Centre for Study of Developing Societies is mixed: both pro-incumbency and anti-incumbency factors are at work. Moreover, states may vote differently in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections – with Orissa and Madhya Pradesh being probable examples. Here’s a sum-up of voter sentiment in various states as it stands in August 2011. Uttar Pradesh: Congress is well ahead of all rivals in the parliamentary contest; SP has an edge over BSP in the assembly contest; Congress is close on their heels while BJP is way behind. [caption id=“attachment_60471” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Both pro-incumbency and anti-incumbency factors are at work in the states. The big upsets are likely to come from UP, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan. Reuters”]  [/caption] Uttarakhand: Congress begins with a thin edge over incumbent BJP in a tight race for the assembly polls. Punjab: Congress ahead of the ruling Akali-BJP alliance in the assembly contest. Gujarat: BJP comfortably ahead both in national and state level polls, could increase its earlier margin over the Congress. Maharashtra: Ruling Congress-NCP coalitions still comfortably ahead of Shiv Sena-BJP; a higher lead is likely in the Lok Sabha contest than in assembly polls. Haryana: INLD plus BJP could now be a match for the ruling Congress as the CM loses popularity. Madhya Pradesh: Congress takes a clear lead in the Lok Sabha polls, but is in a neck and neck contest with the ruling BJP for the assembly elections. Rajasthan: BJP bounces back, enjoys a slight edge both in parliamentary and assembly polls. Chhattisgarh: Ruling BJP still comfortably ahead. Delhi: Congress lead over BJP is narrowing down. Karnataka: Congress takes a lead at both levels, enjoys a huge margin in the Lok Sabha contest; setback for the BJP. Andhra Pradesh: Congress’s vacillation may cost it both Telangana and Andhra; ruling party trails the TRS in the Telangana region, and the YSR Congress in the rest of the state. Jharkhand: Close contest between Congress and BJP in a multi-polar contest. JMM, JVM and AJSU hold the key. Orissa: Congress bounces back to be favourite in a Lok Sabha contest, but BJD continues to be favourite for the state assembly. Bihar: JDU-BJP has consolidated its position further since the spectacular Assembly election victory in November 2010. Kerala: UDF establishes a clear lead over LDF following a narrow victory in the Assembly contest in May. Assam: Fresh from its Assembly win, Congress is likely to sweep if Lok Sabha elections are held now. Tamil Nadu: Ruling AIADMK ahead in Lok Sabha; Congress better placed than the DMK. West Bengal: TMC-Congress way ahead in the Lok Sabha vote, /improving upon their spectacular Assembly performance. Uttar Pradesh: SP leads the pack as BJP falls behind              Punjab: Congress recovers        Karnataka: Congress on a comeback trail        Uttarakhand: Congress has an edge in a tight race        Andhra Pradesh: Congress trails in both the regions        CNN-IBN CNBC-TV18 State of the Nation Poll in association with Forbes India conducted by CSDS.