Amma is a nose ahead in the Tamil Nadu sweepstakes

It is difficult to say emphatically whether Puratchi Thalaivi (Revolutionary Leader) J Jayalalithaa will be back in power on May 13, when the votes are counted.  But she sure is a nose ahead of M Karunanidhi’s DMK-led alliance. A post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for Studies in Developing Societies (CSDS) shows the AIADMK alliance of Jayalalithaa two percent ahead of the DMK-led alliance by 46:44. With the BJP and others accounting for a hefty 10% of potential swing voters, the final results could thus swing either way – especially when it comes to translating votes to seats. [caption id=“attachment_7617” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Chief minister Karunanidhi’s (L) DMK may concede power to AIADMK supremo J. Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu. Reuters”]  [/caption] watch the video below to listen to Jaya talk about her impending victory. What is clear is that despite the wide publicity given to the 2G (second generation) spectrum scandal involving DMK leader A Raja, which is now threatening to engulf Karunanidhi’s daughter Kanimozhi, the DMK has only suffered a small erosion in its vote base. Contrary to conventional wisdom among the chatterati, voters are not quite ready to dump the DMK unceremoniously. But this is not to say Karunanidhi will remain in power, for the swing clearly is away from his alliance, which includes the Congress, the PMK, the VCK, and the MNMK. The AIADMK alliance includes filmstar Vijay Kant’s DMDK, which last time polled a lot of votes but failed to get too many seats, the CPI(M), the CPI, and the Dalit PT. Even so, if one had to take a call, the race appears to be marginally tilted in favour of the AIADMK front, which is gain ground among women voters, the young (18-25) and the lower classes and the poor. Some 49% of the lower classes prefer Jaya to Karunanidhi (39%), and the poor by an even wider margin (54:42). The upper and middle classes prefer Karunanidhi by small margin. The urban voter is divided between the two fronts, but Jayalalithaa’s decisive advantage comes from the rural areas, where she leads 48:44 against Karunanidhi.

The voter also sees her alliance with the DMDK as good, with 75 per cent of AIADMK voters and 80% of DMDK supporters backing the alliance wholeheartedly. Then why is the DMK still doing so well? The answer could be Karunanidhi himself and the DMK’s giveaway schemes. Most voters said they had benefited from the free rice and free colour TVs scheme, and nearly half of them said they also gained from the free LPG stoves scheme.   More voters prefer to see Jaya as CM (43:38), but Karunanidhi’s performance as CM is rated marginally better than Jayalalithaa’s in 2006. He is also seen as a better administrator with 45 per cent preferring him to Jayalalithaaa’s 38%. In the ultimately analysis, if the DMK alliance bites the dust, it has the 2G scam to blame partially. Some 36 per cent of voters saw the DMK government as very corrupt, and Karunanidhi himself as more corrupt than Jayalalithaa. Some 18% said they were changing their vote because of the scam. Seven percent switched from DMK to AIADMK, but only two percent did the opposite switch. Barring miracles, one can hope to see Amma heading the next Tamil Nadu government.