Alliances win elections in India, and the BJP is well ahead in that race

By Sutanu Chemistry matters a lot during elections. But mathematics matters even more. And if a party can find the right dosage of chemistry mixed with mathematics, it could go galloping towards victory. While no forecast is ever accurate, one can now safely assume that the manner in which the BJP is stitching up alliances with small parties is ensuring that it remains in pole position in this electoral race. Individually, many of the allies are so small that they seem to be insignificant. Yet, they could act as powerful force and vote multipliers for the BJP. Conversely, the inability of the Congress to hook these small parties could prove costly this year. [caption id=“attachment_143567” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Modi at a rally after tying up with Ram Vilas Paswan. PTI[/caption] Not many outside Maharashtra have heard of a man called Raju Shetty. This farmer activist created ripples in 2009 when he defeated a formidable NCP candidate Nivedita Mane in the Hatkanagale constituency in the Lok Sabha elections. His party Swabhiman Shetkari Sanghatana won 1.3 percent of the votes in 2009. That might appear insignificant. And yet, this tiny party – when in alliance with the BJP and Shiv Sena – could prove to be the nemesis of Sharad Pawar this time. Raju Shetty has been steadily chipping away at Pawar’s hold over the powerful sugar, milk and cooperative bank lobbies. Allied with Shiv Sena and the BJP, he could well demolish the Sharad Pawar-led NCP bastions in western Maharashtra and Marathwada. Apart from Shetty, the BJP has also roped in the Republican Party led by Ramdas Athavale. According to Election Commission data, the combined vote share of these four parties was more than the 37 percent vote share of the Congress- NCP alliance. That’s the mathematics. Add chemistry in the form of an upsurge of support for Modi and things look decidedly bleak for the Congress-NCP alliance. And if the Raj Thackeray led MNS actually doesn’t field candidates in seats being contested by the BJP, we are looking at serious electoral upsets in Maharashtra this Lok Sabha election. Even more astonishing results appear tantalizingly possible in Tamil Nadu, a state where the BJP has always been irrelevant as a serious player. While the Congress failed to persuade erstwhile ally DMK to come back to the UPA, the BJP has successfully persuaded three smaller parties to join the NDA. The MDMK won 3.67 percent of the votes in 2009; the PMK won 5.72 percent and the DMDK won 10.8 percent. If they repeat their 2009 performance, the three parties together will capture more than 20 percent of the votes, well past the threshold of winning some seats. The nationwide opinion poll conducted by CSDS for CNN-IBN gives about 12 percent of the Tamil Nadu vote to the BJP. In pure mathematical terms, we are looking at the possibility of the NDA getting more than 30 percent of the vote in TN. Add chemistry in the form of Modi’s personal popularity and we could well be looking at some shocking outcomes in this key southern state this time. Do remember, TN is now a four-cornered contest between AIADMK, DMK, Congress and the NDA. And we all know what happens when one formation or alliance crosses the 30 percent vote share threshold in a three or four-cornered contest. Bihar is going to see a three-cornered contest between the JD (U) led by Nitish Kumar, the Congress-RJD alliance and the NDA. In this state, the Congress has at least managed to find an ally in RJD. But it is the alliance formed by the BJP with smaller parties that could deliver unpredictable surprises. The LJP led by Ram Vilas Paswan, now with the NDA, won 6.5 percent of the votes in 2009. The other small ally, Rashtriya Lok Samta Party led by OBC leader Upendra Kushwaha, did not even exist in 2009 since Kushwaha was a member of JD(U). If you add up the 2009 vote shares of the three, it works out to about 23 percent. The Congress-RJD alliance here looks strong on paper because the two together won close to 30 percent of the vote in 2009. But this is one state where chemistry could trump mathematics. Anecdotal evidence, field stories and opinion polls all suggest a massive upsurge of support for Modi and the BJP in Bihar. Even if you discount the hype, there is little doubt that the BJP in tandem with the two smaller allies could cross the 30 percent vote share threshold in a three-cornered contest. If that does happen, it is advantage BJP. Similar alliances are boosting the BJP even in other states even as the Congress fails to woo smaller parties. In West Bengal, the GJM has announced an alliance with the BJP while the Haryana Janhit Congress led by Kuldeep Bishnoi is already a BJP ally. Significant sections of the Asom Gana Parishad are breaking away and joining the BJP. Again, each one individually remains insignificant. But there is simply no doubting the multiplier effect they can have on the prospects of the BJP. In contemporary India, it is alliances that win elections. This time around, it does appear advantage BJP.