Alagiri factor: Strong man, but does he have popular support?

The expelled DMK strongman Alagiri has been making overt moves by praising Modi and Jayalalithaa and has even met with his father’s arch rival Vaiko, but does he have the firepower to damage his family party’s chances in the Lok Sabha elections or help the opposition win?  Alagiri had been a force to reckon with in Madurai and the southern districts, with his influence running in at least three constituencies. Now that he is out of the DMK, does he still enjoy the same influence? Possibly not, because the influence he had had in his terrain had been also to do with the DMK. He was a strongman of the DMK and was known for strong arm tactics. However, it doesn’t mean that he is a leader with voter support. It’s an unmeasured factor and possibly, anybody’s guess for the time being. It’s debatable if he’s a people’s leader and will continue to enjoy their support. For the time being, he has no MLAs backing him and has the support of three members of parliament - former actor Napoleon and JK Ritheesh - both members of the Lok Sabha - and KP Ramalingam, member of Rajya Sabha. In fact, Ramalingam owes his seat to Alagiri. Alagiri’s immediate move seems to be to get close to the BJP-led alliance and buy peace with Jayalalithaa so that strategically he is in a better position than Karunanidhi, Stalin and the DMK. He has met with BJP president Rajnath Singh, welcomed Modi as the prime minister of India and even praised Jayalalithaa for her leadership of her party. The strategy seems to be very simple - be powerful by being close to the people who are in power and who are likely to be in power. It’s clear that even without a party, he will be with the BJP-alliance and would marshall all his support in the southern districts and the rest of the state. If the candidates of BJP-alliance do well in his erstwhile fiefdom, he can easily claim some credit. The BJP seems to be receptive to Alagiri’s overtures, which will help him greatly after the elections. Being friendly with the state government will give his son some respite in the granite case. Alagiri’s expulsion and his alliance with the BJP-front is psychologically bad news for the DMK, but Karunanidhi and Stalin may not be overtly worried because they know that their party is bigger than what Alagiri can muster. They also know that Alagiri’s control of the district need not be taken for voter support. What should worry them more is that with or without Alagiri, the DMK is a weak front this time because it has no strong allies. With the AIADMK looking very strong and the DMDK-BJP gaining some traction, the DMK has reasons to worry. Alagiri can add a bit, not a lot, to these woes. Many feel that this time, Alagiri seems to have gone for good from the DMK because there’s nobody within the family to speak for him. Despite his indisciplined conduct within the party, what kept him going was the family factor - more precisely his mother Dayalu Ammal. This time, she is irreversibly unwell and hence will not be able to speak for him. Alagiri too will know this and most probably form his own party sooner or later. Whether his party does well in the Lok Sabha elections or not, this is the time for Stalin to consolidate. Over the last few years he has been touring the state and strengthening the party infrastructure, particularly among the youth. The party is now strongly under his control and Alagiri’s exit means that he has no obstacles ahead of him. However, in the short run, he has the tough task of recording at least a modest victory in the Lok Sabha elections.