After polls, the hyperbole: NDA, Grand Alliance make tall claims on seats in phase I

There couldn’t be an exit poll for the first phase of polling for 49 seats in Bihar. That has thrown up an interesting situation. The two rival alliances have started making tall claims and counter claims on their chances of success.

While the campaigning for the second and third phases is on in full swing, the discussion in the political circles is mostly around which alliance – the BJP-led NDA or RJD-JD(U)-Congress Mahagathbandhan – would score the maximum in the 10 districts that went to polls on Monday. The relatively high turnout of 57 percent and high participation of women have spiced up the debate further.

The larger women voter turnout could be because of two factors - first, to the rising awareness level on their rights; and second, men in large numbers have migrated to other parts of the country in search of livelihood and better job prospects. Most such men are still registered as voters in Bihar and for variety of reasons prefer a voter ID from their native place.

The JD(U) strategists believe that Nitish Kumar has carved out a strong caste-neutral constituency of women for his party through reservation to them in panchayat bodies, cycles to girls and promise of reservation for women in jobs. The higher women turnout thus means that he and his alliance partners stand to secure a substantive lead over their rival.

The BJP leaders rubbish that claim. They argue that harrowing experience of Lalu Yadav’s goondaraj for 15 long years is still alive in people’s minds. Irrespective of the fact that Mahagathbandhan has Nitish as its face, women at large understand the reality. They stress that they vote for `development’ as symbolized by Narendra Modi.

As compared to the BJP, the JD(U)-RJD strategists, leaders and supporters are more assertive and boastful about the number of seats they could get. A top ranking JD(U) strategist claimed that in the 49 seats of Samstipur, Bhagalpur, Munger, Khagaria, Banka, Begusarai, Nawada, Jamui, Lkahisarai and Shekhpura the Mahagathbandhan had made a “clean sweep” and would win anything between 35-40 seats. The BJP leader laugh it off and claim, based on ‘realistic feedback’, that the NDA is poised to win 30-35 seats.

The BJP had some concern areas in first phase, which they claim were addressed in due course. The JD(U) leaders say that first phase was critical for them and if they have secured a big lead here then the Mahagathbandhan is up for a clean sweep. The NDA leaders say they are very comfortable in the areas already polled and in the second, third and fourth phase. They were working hard to ensure get even, if not better in the last and final phase which is spread across Muslim-Yadav dominated areas.

The BJP leaders suggest that the reason why the Mahagathbandhan leaders and strategists are making “unrealistically boastful” claims is that they have been rattled by two things – huge crowds turning up at PM Modi’s rally on Monday, the day the first phase polling was being done; and second, by the video expose where a top-ranking Nitish minister Awadhesh Kushwaha was seen accepting bribe of Rs four lakh from a “Bombay based party”.

The JD(U) strategists do not challenge that the turnout at Modi’s rallies have been very good but make a subjective claim that the crowd response in his rallies have not been the same as it used to be earlier, till the announcement of polls. The BJP, leaders and workers alike clearly believe that Modi is their proven trump card and is in the process of delivering results as per their expectations.