After Jaswant's expulsion, BJP looks to woo Jat vote in Rajasthan

Now that the dust has settled on Jaswant Singh’s expulsion, we can analyse the episode from a different angle. Is it possible that Singh was purposefully humiliated by the BJP to rejig caste equations in Rajasthan? Was Singh thrown out so that Narendra Modi’s party could be rechristened Bharatiya Jat Party in Rajasthan? Yes, Vasundhara Raje had her own score to settle with the veteran leader and his wife. Yes, Singh was a part of the bygone era that the current BJP under Narendra Modi wants to forget. Yes, Singh was on the wrong side of the 70s. But there is sneaking suspicion within the state that Singh was used as a tool to provoke the Rajputs and the Jats, to drive a wedge between two communities that are considered political rivals. Singh could be a pawn in the larger game plan to readjust the caste equations in the state, even if the political chess ends up harming the state. There are many BJP supporters who get dismayed by the idea that their supreme leader Modi’s appeal is not considered enough for a landslide victory by analysts. But the ground reality is different. The BJP is ahead in this election not just because Modi works up his supporters into frenzy. It is gaining also because Modi’s lieutenants like Amit Shah and Vasundhara Raje are trying to rework the caste equations to broaden the party’s base. [caption id=“attachment_1460359” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] BJP’s senior leader Jaswant Singh in this file photo. PTI[/caption] Since the Congress is going into terminal decline, since it is on the death bed, castes and communities that had voted for the party for decades are confused. In states like Rajasthan, the BJP is trying to snare some of these voters through covert and overt gestures before the fall into the lap of some other party, say, for instance, the AAP. To understand this, let us look at the history of the BJP in Rajasthan. Till a few years ago, the BJP was known as a party of Brahmins, Banias and Rajputs. This combination was immoratlised by the crafty slogan ‘Tilak, Tarazu aur Talwar…’ coined by the BSP. The B in the BJP still stands for Brahmin and Banias. But the J is now being offered to Jats, electorally the most significant community of western Rajasthan. This year, Vasundhara Raje has given tickets to seven Jat candidates, almost a fourth of the 25 seats. Theoretically, this is a clever ploy to attract the support of the community that is loyal more to candidates than parties or ideologies but has traditionally voted against the BJP because of its reputation of being a party of Rajputs. The BJP’s plan is simple. Its leaders feel that its core support base of upper castes (Tilak, Tarazu and Talwar) will any way vote for it, partly because of the old ties and partially because of the Narendra Modi effect on youth, middle class and urban voters. By giving extra weightage to the Jats, who generally vote as a single entity for candidates, the BJP has attempted to widen its support base. If it works, the party will become invincible not only in this election but also for decades to come. Singh’s expulsion, considered afresh, is helping the BJP cement the Jat vote. His ouster has annoyed Rajputs of western Rajasthan. But their anger has caused reverse polarisation of Jats in the BJP’s favour in the region. The BJP is a net gainer because Jats outnumber Rajputs and are capable of deciding the outcome of elections. Will it help the BJP? If there is a Modi wave—and it’s not a big if—then Vasundhara’ gamble would pay off, at least in the short-term. Modi may act as glue for the Brahmin-Bania-Jat-OBC alliance that the BJP is trying to put together. But if the Modi magic doesn’t work then the BJP may be in trouble. Throughout Rajasthan, other communities have shown an inclination for opposing communities that aim to control politics through money and muscle. Jats, Meenas and Gurjars, wherever they are in large numbers, end up as common enemies of other castes wary of their growing political might. If the other communities of Rajasthan gang up against the Jat candidates fielded by the party, the BJP may lose a few crucial seats. Add to this the anger of Rajputs it has earned by spurning Jaswant and embracing Jats, the BJP could find itself on the darker side of the caste divide created by it. What would be a good indicator of its success or failure? In the recent Vidhan Sabha election, the BJP had led in 24 Lok Sabha constituencies. If it wins fewer seats than this, it would have only itself to blame.