Advani, and BJP’s curse: Too many dogs in NDA manger

On the face of it, there’s nothing colossally wrong with BJP leader LK Advani’s attempt at crystal-ball gazing in the context of the next general elections. Writing on his blog, Advani recalls a recent conversation with two unidentified senior Cabinet ministers, wherein the Ministers gave voice to their concern that the next election might see a Third Front political formation in power (presumably without the support of either the Congress or the BJP). Advani, however, is dismissive of these concerns, and holds that it would be “practically impossible” for any government to be formed in New Delhi, which does not have the support of either of the two main national parties, the Congress or the BJP. On the other hand, Advani says that “a non-Congress, non-BJP Prime Minister heading a government supported by one of these two principal parties is, however, feasible.” Yet, in his estimation, it’s far more likely that the next election will see the Congress slump to its lowest ever tally ever — to below 100 Lok Sabha seats. As an overarching, bird’s-eye overview of the political terrain as it looks today, this attempt at “soothsaying” isn’t entirely wrong. Advani perhaps senses that there is an enormous political backlash building up against the UPA, given its misgovernance of, in particular, the last three years. But, as he did in May , when he called upon the BJP to “introspect” on its failings, he perhaps reckons that the BJP is not best placed to harvest the fruits of that anti-Congress sentiment. That prognosis ties in with an earlier _Firstpost_ analysis , which had noted — in the context of the byelections in March — that the fortresses of both the Congress and the BJP are crumbling. [caption id=“attachment_407345” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  It is the surest sign that the old warhorse (Advani), whom many believed had been put out to pasture, still reckons that he’s in with a chance for a shot at the top job that has thus far eluded him. PTI[/caption] Yet, there is one deficiency in Advani’s analysis: it peddles a line of argument that appears to be patently self-serving, and it singularly overlooks the alternative political strategies that the BJP can marshall to help it break out of the electoral rut to which Advani condemns it. Advani’s analytical exertions betray an excessive eagerness to build political scenarios that could, under certain conditions, see himself — or someone whom he anoints — as the Prime Minister of a NDA government. It is the surest sign that the old warhorse, whom many believed had been put out to pasture, still reckons that he’s in with a chance for a shot at the top job that has thus far eluded him. Consider this: the only circumstance in which the BJP might be required to support a non-BJP Prime Minister is if the party secures, say 130 Lok Sabha seats or so in the next election, and its allies in the NDA secure about 150 seats. Under such circumstances, the BJP, despite being the single largest party in the NDA, may be compelled to yield ground to the collective will of its allies in the choice of Prime Minister. It isn’t entirely inconceivable that Advani could then play kingmaker, and anoint, say, a Nitish Kumar, to head an NDA government. It is this scenario that he flags when he speaks of a “non-BJP Prime Minister” supported by the BJP. But what if the BJP secures, say, 170-180 seats, and its allies about 130 seats? The party might then be able to nominate one of its own for the post of Prime Minister. But to the extent that it cannot form a government on its own, it would still have to take into consideration the sensibilities of its coalition partners, including leaders like Nitish Kumar who have been extraordinarily forceful in their articulation of whom the BJP should not project as Prime Minister. It is in such a scenario that Advani perhaps fancies himself — or perhaps an Arun Jaitley or a Sushma Swaraj — as a “consensus candidate” who is acceptable to the coalition partners. Of course, a BJP so severely hobbled by its coalition partners (who have already begun to dictate terms to it) would be only nominally different from the feckless UPA coalition. But it appears that the BJP’s own horizons have shrunken so dramatically that its leaders are unable to even imagine a more compelling electoral performance. The great unmentionable in all this is, of course, Narendra Modi. It isn’t hard to conceive of scenarios where, for all his reputation as a polarising politician, Modi might, if he is projected as Prime Minister, be able to channel the popular backlash against the UPA to such an extent that the BJP is less dependent on political blackmailers — and able to better dictate the terms on which it can head a government at the Centre. As Firstpost had noted ( here ), there is a constituency of voters out there — of “centrist”, perhaps even “liberal”, voters who are so frustrated by the UPA’s misgovernance that they are ready to give Modi a chance, even though they are equally wary of him. But the BJP today, under a Nitin Gadkari and an LK Advani and a Sushma Swaraj and an Arun Jaitley, has its nose so close to the grindstone of politics, tweaking infinitesimal gains from the political cycle as the Congress’ B team, that it can no longer see the stars. It has lost its individuality and the capacity to dream big. Having batted for so long in the dour defensive manner of a Gavaskar, it can no longer summon its inner Tendulkar and go over the top. The BJP’s problem today is that it has too many dogs in the NDA manger: leaders who themselves don’t inspire popular goodwill and who can become Prime Ministers only by default as “least unacceptable candidates”, but who are working assiduously to keep out the only one who holds appeal to the core BJP supporter. Advani’s armchair ruminations on the BJP’s prospects merely reflect the blinkered worldview of a warhorse who has been softened by too many years of being put out to pasture. Yesterday’s Iron Man of politics is today rusted and withered.