5 numbers to look for: Cheat sheet for election results 2014

This has been an unprecedented election in the history of independent India for several reasons. The highest ever turnout in an Indian general election means the highest ever turnout in any democratic process anywhere in the world. Fifty-five crore voters queued up to get their finger inked, more people than the combined population of the USA and Russia. It has also been the most polarised election in a long time. And of course, it’s the most expensive election ever fought in India. And we’re not yet talking about undeclared expenses: The government alone spent Rs 3,426 crore, that’s 131 percent more than the bill for the 2009 general election. Then, this election may be set to leave the Congress, the party that has been in government for the most number of years since 1949, with its feeblest ever tally in the Lok Sabha. Simultaneously, exit polls are predicting a best-ever result for the BJP. Amid all those superlatives, if you have to look out for five numbers that put the month-and-half long saga into perspective very quickly, here they are. 40 or 55 in Uttar Pradesh? Keep your eyes peeled. It can’t be said enough, watch out for the Uttar Pradesh numbers. Will it be 35, closer to 45 or well above? Historically, the performance of the BJP in UP has yo-yoed: Its best performance was in 1998, when it won over 36 percent of the vote and 57 of the then 85 seats. The most recent election in UP was its Assembly election in 2012, and the BJP notched up barely 15 percent of the vote share. The Lokniti-CSDS-IBN exit poll (revised after taking into account the final polling day statistics) has predicted a 39 percent vote share for the BJP in UP; the NDTV-Hansa poll projects it winning 51 to 61 seats while the CSDS poll projected a seat strength of 45-53 and the Times Now-ORG poll predicted more than 50 seats. Just how far ahead of 38-40 the BJP finishes in UP will be indicative of how comfortably the NDA will be placed. Is 55 possible? It is, for eastern UP’s disaffection for the BJP in recent times appears set to see a reversal according to exit polls. Fielding Modi from Varanasi was certainly one of the factors – not only the star value and Modi sarkaar branding but also the right caste card, in a region dominated by OBCs. So, eastern UP may have given only three or four seats to the BJP in 2004 and 2009, but that is set to multiply manifold. There is no doubt that the Muzaffarnagar riots polarised UP severely. The Lokniti-CSDS-IBN opinion polls showed that between January and March this year, a rising number of respondents had heard of the riots. Overall, 40 percent believed it was the Samajwadi Party to blame. The Muslim vote divided, the BJP is set to gain in the highly sensitive western Maharashtra too. [caption id=“attachment_1516305” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Representational image. AFP.[/caption] At 10-14 percent, have exit polls underestimated Mayawati? In 2004 and 2009, the BSP won 24.6 and 27.4 percent of the vote share. The low-key BSP campaign has not been given much media coverage, so little is actually known of how strong her pitch has been. The exit polls are mostly showing the BSP finishing with 10 to 14 percent of the vote, less than even the Samajwadi Party according to the CSDS-Lokniti-IBN poll. Tactical voting by the Muslims keen to keep out the BJP could also result in wins for strong BSP candidates getting that community’s backing. Mayawati has also spent time convincing Muslims that they perhaps have much in common with the BSP. The Indian Express has reported that Mayawati has sent her senior people to minority leaders in western UP assuring them of protecting their interests. Even the BSP’s candidate selection has been calculated: 18 Muslims candidates. If there’s anything the pollsters could have miscalculated about Uttar Pradesh, it is behenji’s stature. Zero, 1, 2 or 3? AAP’s tally will disappoint India. Unlike many of Anna Hazare’s previous dharnas in which he had demanded the resignation of a minister over corruption allegations, the 2010-2011 movement by India Against Corruption for a Jan Lokpal followed by the spawning of the Aam Aadmi Pary and then its breathtaking performance at the hustings in the 2013 Delhi Assembly elections told Indians agitating on the road or watching from the sidelines , but feeling equally outraged and helpless, that change was not replacing one government with another. Change could indeed be systemic, that it was possible to demand structural change, institutional change and to imagine a Congress mukt Bharat and equally a BJP mukt Bharat. That exit polls are predicting a less than 4 per cent vote share for the Aam Aadmi Party in most states is both tragic and enlightening. It’s the first general election after the Assembly election where an outlier claimed centre stage. It didn’t live up to expectation, but it may be too early to be writing an epitaph also. Maybe all AAP needs is a course correction. 200 makes BJP a team player, 250 makes it spoilt for choice For two decades now, regional players have called themselves kingmakers, and have also played tantrum-throwers on crucial occasions. Writing in the Indian Express, Praveen Chakravarty of IndiaSpends says the two big national parties have in recent years ceded much ground to the regional players. This is the first election in a long time that the Congress and BJP have both chosen not to tie up pre-poll alliances with the two regional parties in Tamil Nadu, for example, the writer argues, pointing to a new “nationalisation”. The Congress and BJP have both fought this election largely on their own strength without dependence on regional allies. How many post-poll allies the BJP chooses to tie up for extra cushioning and how many it will need to reach the 272 mark could define the nature of the government at the Centre in days to come. In Gujarat, 26 for Modi The BJP in Gujarat has embarked upon an ambitious project called “mission 26”, a statement-making win in all 26 seats of the state to drive home the point to anybody who have missed the Modi wave. The exit polls have predicted 24 and 25 seats for the party. With some luck, a 26th one, isn’t impossible. Can the BJP do it for Modi?