3 reasons why Mayawati may be out in the cold in UP

Factors like a higher than expected voter turnout in Uttar Pradesh, anti-incumbency and a resurgent Samajwadi party are resulting in exit polls predicting with near certainity the downfall of Mayawati and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in these elections. But where may Mayawati have gone wrong? Jatav community – rising or uprising? Did Mayawati have the complete support of the Jatav community in these polls as her supporters would like to believe or has she lost them after failing to stick to the ideals set by mentor Kanshi Ram? Ajoy Bose a biographer of Mayawati believes that she had the unrestrained support of the community across the state. “The near-complete solidarity of the Jatavs with Mayawati and her party is politically significant not just because of the large number and even-spread across Uttar Pradesh,” Bose says in a column in Hindustan Times. However, the Open magazine paints a different picture where the community was disgruntled with Behenji for her inability to stick to the ideals set by party founder Kashi Ram and not pursuing reforms in the interests of staying in power. [caption id=“attachment_233945” align=“alignright” width=“380” caption=“An Indian park employee cleans the murals of Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh state Mayawati. AP”]  [/caption] “Behenji’s explanation is that she has to do this in order to keep the BSP’s social alliances alive, which is a must if the party is to rule the state. But the truth is that she wants power for herself and not for the Bahujan samaj,”  Ram Samhar, a leader of the BSP says. But will the anger against Mayawati’s perceived failures be enough to topple her from power or will it just mean less seats? Corruption instead of goondagardi? A party associated with allowing criminal elements to prosper under it, the Samajwadi Party claims to have cleaned up its act.Party leader Akhilesh Yadav touts the fact that most of their candidates are free of criminal records and that they will have no place for candidates with tainted records. Mayawati in 2007 had capitalised on the fact that people were frustrated with the SP’s inability to maintain law and order. A last minute attempt was also made to clean up the party of ministers like Babu Singh Kushwaha, who has since been arrested for his alleged involvement in the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) scam, but was it too little too late? The Ambedkar park built at a cost of over Rs 600 crore, statues of herself and the BSP’s symbol across the state, controversies about acquiring agricultural land for development and the NRHM scam may also not help the public perception of Mayawati. But was it enough to tip the scales against her? Out of sight is out of mind? The inaccessibility of Mayawati is said to be a factor that could play against the incumbent Chief Minister. The BSP party cadre is accused of being inactive in conveying the sentiment and demands of the people to the Chief Minister. “It appears that people are moving towards the SP as the local BSP leadership has failed to do anything for them and people had no access to Mayawati. The local authorities also do not listen to BSP leaders as they had direct links with Mayawati,” Mukund Mehrotra, a social worker and political analyst said in a DNA report from Bundelkhand before the polls. Members of Jatav community, Mayawati’s vote bank, were also unhappy that she was unable to pick someone as a successor and was seen as someone unable to put the community’s interests ahead of her own. Her inability to push forward reforms promised by the election would not have helped either, according to the report in Open. While it may not have isolated communities that traditionally allied with the BSP, have Mayawati’s inability to connect destroyed the inroads made into other communities during the 2007 polls?