With a coalition government and revitalised Opposition, third term will test PM Modi’s leadership

It has been over a week since the declaration of the Lok Sabha election results, but we seem to be still caught in a “morning after effect". Though many may be loath to admit it, the last week has been rather surreal for people on both sides of the political aisle. For Modi supporters, who had attained a high after the high of the exit polls, the results came as a jolt. Notwithstanding the brave front put up by them, the final numbers fell short of the worst-case scenario they would have factored in.

Equally, it would have pleasantly exceeded the expectations of those who were hoping for a regime change. Though a week has passed and a new government has assumed office, the impact has yet to fully sink in, and beneath the air of sangfroid, people are still trying to figure out how the outcome is likely to pan out in the coming months.

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Despite falling short of the absolute majority mark, the BJP was able to save the day by holding on to its pre-poll allies and countering the lure of deals that must have surely been offered to them by the Opposition for changing camps. However, as more granular analyses of voting patterns emerge, it is becoming increasingly clear that it was a narrow save for the BJP, and the verdict could have easily gone further south if the losses in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and West Bengal had been higher.

The setbacks suffered in UP are particularly disturbing for the BJP, especially the defeat in Ayodhya and the reduced margin of victory for the prime minister himself. It appears that, apart from the minorities, large sections of the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Dalits deserted the BJP. Even the Thakurs, it seems, were miffed and not well disposed towards the party. A conspiracy theory is doing the rounds that Arvind Kejriwal’s statement that Modi and Amit Shah would unseat UP’s popular CM within two months of coming to power was taken seriously by the Thakur lobby.
In Rajasthan, there was a virtual revolt by the Rajputs and Jats against the BJP. Some of this spilled over to UP as well. Resentment of the Agniveer Scheme also cost the BJP dearly across states. As a result, the BJP could not reap the benefits of its Hindutva agenda, and even the trump card of Ram Mandir did not work.

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The fear of “Samvidhan Khatre Mein Hain” (the constitution is in danger) that the Samajwadi Party and Congress were able to successfully conjure up prevailed over everything else, along with the angst of unemployment, inflation, and rural economic distress. Thus, while one can fault the Opposition on form, it will be unfair to grudge their newfound peskiness.

In hindsight, therefore, what once appeared as bravado of the Opposition, especially the Congress, as the election was in progress begins to make sense. They obviously had a fix on what was happening on the ground. Equally, the BJP would not have been clueless, though they probably did not gauge the extent to which the ground had shifted.

This explains the prime minister’s changing tack during the campaign, upping the religious rhetoric, and the sudden spurt in his media interactions during the slog-overs of the match. Through the cabinet formation, Modi, in which the BJP has retained all the major portfolios, has tried to create confidence in continuing business as usual without being constrained by the compulsions of coalition politics. But the cracks in the foundation cannot be papered over, and the Opposition has not given him a moment of respite, questioning his “moral” standing as well as challenging the legitimacy of his government.

PM Modi was the pioneer in using social media in 2014. At that time, if one recalls correctly, Rahul Gandhi did not even have a Twitter account. Modi was then a pariah of the mainstream media, but he bypassed them through the use of targeted social media and the BJP’s YouTube channel. Arvind Gupta is credited for creating the NaMo app. Prashant Kishor’s contribution to the Modi campaign of 2014 is disputed by some, but there is no denying that ‘analytics’ was used for the first time in such a massive way by the BJP in 2014.

Despite rumours of engaging Cambridge Analytica and using Facebook and Twitter, Congress has not yet gotten its communication act together. The BJP’s Association of Billion Minds was still ahead of the game. But the first-mover advantage does not last forever. The Opposition started playing copycat, and the BJP did not reinvent its game. But by then, apparently, it had total control over the mainstream media, which provided saturation coverage. With disproportionate resources at its command, it could outspend the Opposition by carpet bombing rallies by the BJP’s top leadership, with Modi as the star campaigner.

However, stealing from the BJP playbook of 2014, Congress, the Samajwadi Party, and Trinamool circumvented the conventional communication medium and used social media and direct outreach to beat the BJP in its own game and win the war of narratives.

To compound the damage, the BJP did not help its own cause with faulty candidate selection. Fielding a large number of turncoats and allying with former foes created resentment among the old guards, antagonised cadres, and, most crucially, alienated the Rashtriya Samaj Sevak Sangh (RSS), which adopted a hands-off attitude.

The BJP’s workers were no match for the commitment of the organic RSS footsoldiers and could not counter the spontaneous mobilisation of the Samajwadi Party and specific pockets, such as Varanasi play, Raebareli, Amethi by the Congress playing the caste and communal cards. As per reports coming in now, this caused maximum damage to the party in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. Interestingly, as per one count, 35 out of 52 new entrants from other parties fielded by the BJP lost elections, which cost the party an absolute majority.

Unpalatable as it may sound, undeniably, these elections have dented the aura of invincibility surrounding Modi. Having tasted success and acquired confidence in its ability to build perceptions, the Opposition is only going to step up its attack on the credibility of the government.

This is already evident in the relentless barbs directed at the prime minister and some of his key aides. Their attempt would be to ridicule the government at every step and run down each move with sustained criticism inside and outside the parliament. They could also be receiving support from external quarters via the Western global media and the global Left ecosystem. The Opposition’s aim would be to keep Modi mired in the aftermath of the Lok Sabha polls until the next round of state assembly elections in Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jharkhand. A further setback can easily put the ruling coalition in jeopardy.

The Opposition will not dial down or relent its onslaught, questioning the mandate and legitimacy of the coalition. However, the nation cannot be put on suspended animation due to the political tug of war. The next few months will, therefore, test Modi’s leadership and political skills to the hilt. He will have to fire on multiple fronts, whether it is organisation, communication, or the economy, apart from managing the expectations of allies, the internal dynamics of the party, and its relationship with the RSS.

Any tensions on the foreign policy front can further queer the pitch. The prime minister will need high bandwidth to deal with the short term, especially the economy, while ensuring that his longer-term vision is not derailed by political exigencies. Therefore, it is not surprising that he has chosen to retain his top team to maintain continuity in the administration. The induction of Shivraj Singh Chouhan is an inspired choice. Now, the BJP needs a savvy party president who can navigate the organisation through choppy waters.

The author is a current affairs commentator, marketer, blogger and leadership coach, who tweets at @SandipGhose. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.