Why US-Japan-South Korea trilateral partnership will withstand the test of time

The US, Japan, and South Korea ‘institutionalised’ trilateral cooperation by inking an ‘historic’ memorandum. The US Secretary of Defence, Lloyd Austin, Japanese Defence Minister Kihara Minoru, and South Korean Defence Minister Shin Won-sik held a trilateral ministerial meeting on July 28, 2024, for the first time in history.

Following the US-Japan-South Korea summits previously held in Phnom Penh and Camp David, the three defence ministers reiterated their commitment to strengthening trilateral security cooperation. In addition to discussing common concerns on regional security, there was a reaffirmation of promoting peace and stability throughout the Indo-Pacific region and in particular the Korean Peninsula.

Why Now?

The crisis in Ukraine has shifted power relations, calling into question US and NATO-led ideas of collective security. East Asia today has three problematic hotspots: North Korea, China, and Taiwan. North Korea’s proliferation of nuclear and ballistic missiles is a concerning development for the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Although South Korea remains superior to the North in terms of weaponry, North Korea’s constant testing and arsenal development pose a major threat.

The great power confrontation between the US and China is intensifying. China has often cited US hegemony in the region as a threat to its rise, proposing a ‘multipolar’ world based on ’tianxia’ values. China defines multipolarity as leveraging policies to challenge US hegemony in East Asia and beyond.

Furthermore, US-South Korea-Japan relations have prompted a strategic triangular relationship between North Korea, China, and Russia, resulting in East Asian bloc politics. Russia has built deeper connections with North Korea as a result of the Ukraine war, and Moscow and Beijing’s ties have strengthened even more. As a result, the region is experiencing a security crisis that necessitates a comprehensive and collaborative strategy from stakeholders.

The US has maintained and balanced its bilateral relations individually with Japan and ROK through the aforementioned Hub and Spokes Model. However, the existing challenges require the US to have warm and cordial relations between two of its strong Asian partners, Japan and South Korea.

The contentious colonial antagonism between the two countries had served as a disconnect between US-Japan and US-South Korea relations. But the newfound détente between the US’ two closest ally in the region had to be forged into a more institutionalised framework. This framework will fulfil the dual purpose of protecting US interests in the region, and the closer bilateral relations between Japan and South Korea would maintain the US security umbrella.

The historic Camp David summit between the countries’ leaders last year targeted at these pointers and was intended to improve a number of existing cooperation measures, including real-time exchange of missile warning data to better detect and analyse North Korean launches.

Key Aspects

A joint document for enhanced cooperation was proposed by South Korea earlier this year, both at trilateral meetings and the Shangri-La Dialogue in June. The Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework (TSCF) institutionalises trilateral security cooperation among defence authorities, such as senior-level policy talks, intelligence sharing, trilateral exercises, and defence exchange cooperation, to promote peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, in the Indo-Pacific region, and beyond. As a result, the secretary and two ministers reiterated the steadfast nature of the new age of trilateral cooperation.

Over the last year, the three countries have conducted cooperative military exercises to counter missile launches and hunt for submarines. They conducted air, sea, and cyberspace manoeuvres last month, marking the partners’ first trilateral multidomain exercise. These three countries intend to knot their expanding trilateral relationships so firmly that they are difficult to unravel.

Further, the agreement binds the three countries to step up cooperation for effective operation of real-time sharing of North Korean missile data and carry out joint drills. It also reaffirms the success of the multidomain ‘Freedom Edge’ exercise between the three countries, and it expresses their shared resolve to promote trilateral interoperability in the Indo-Pacific region and the Korean Peninsula.

The meeting between the defence ministers also denounced the North’s diversification of nuclear delivery systems and test launches of multiple ballistic missiles, as well as other tension-escalating acts on the Korean Peninsula. As a result, the three countries have attained a new level of trilateral collaboration.

“A priority would be to establish a system to more effectively, promptly, and coherently respond to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats among South Korea, the US, and Japan, and to make that irreversible,” South Korean Defence Minister Shin Wonsik reiterated at the outset of the trilateral meeting.

Prospects post-US presidential elections 2024

There are concerns that ensue as the dates for US presidential elections draw close, especially now that President Joe Biden has stepped down from the election campaign. The Biden administration has prioritised alliances, particularly strengthening ties and bridging the gap between the US’s two key allies in East Asia, Japan and South Korea.

Meanwhile, former US President Donald Trump, who is also a candidate for this year’s presidential election, holds the record of alarming US allies with ‘unpredictable and unilateral’ foreign and security policies. There are also concerns that political changes in Seoul and Tokyo may jeopardise the hard-fought cooperative agreements that have already been negotiated.

However, Trump has mentioned strengthening US ties with Japan and South Korea, if elected. The concern for the US to counter belligerence posed by North Korea and China will prove substantial if it continues to deepen cooperation in both ‘material and symbolic ways’.

Although public debates have sparked in both South Korea and Japan regarding nuclearisation, US policies after the election of the next president will be determining and hence will remain anticipated. However, trilateral cooperation is here to stay.

The Geopolitics for Japan and South Korea

Japan and South Korea had overcome their colonial antagonism at Camp David last year. Previously, both the defence ministers of Japan and Korea resorted towards another significant step towards building resilient security ties by resumption of defence exchange, and this was considered the last remaining obstacle towards normalising and regularising cooperation between the two countries.

Lately, South Korea has been facing troubles from North Korea with respect to balloons filled with trash landing across the Demilitarised Zone—an attempt seen by the South Koreans to disregard the Armistice Agreement of 1935. While there are debates of nuclearisation rather than denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, incumbent South Korean President Yoon Seok Yeol faces low ratings due to numerous scandals against him.

Therefore, the times are crucial for South Korea to work towards an approach of proactive foreign policy safeguarding its interests. Japan has also expressed keen interest in partnering with more Southeast Asian countries, especially countries like the Philippines, to counter China’s belligerence in the South and East China Seas. Furthermore, Japan has also been trying to level its defence forces by creating dual-use infrastructure.

Perhaps equally crucial, particularly for Japan and South Korea’s mutual ally, the United States is the subject of Chinese belligerence, which has been highlighted in trilateral defence discussions. Although the three nations did not identify China in their joint statement, there is growing agreement on the subject. They also repeated their strong opposition to ‘unilateral attempts’ to change the status quo in Indo-Pacific areas, most likely referring to Beijing’s ambitions in the East and South China Seas.

It can be right to conclude that South Korea benefits from stronger deterrents against North Korean threats and increasing regional influence, and Japan may view it as an opportunity to reinforce its regional security posture, deepen its alliance with Washington, and heal historically difficult relations with South Korea.

The United States is also expected to overhaul its military forces in Japan as a step towards modernising the alliance against the backdrop of vexed geopolitics in East Asia. The new plan would allow US forces in Japan to be ‘reconstituted’ as a Joint Force Headquarters reporting to the Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM). This step has been undertaken to facilitate deeper interoperability operations both in peacetime and contingencies.

Given South Korea’s and Japan’s geographical proximity to China, as well as the presence of US troops in both countries, Beijing sees the burgeoning trilateral partnership as one of the US’s minilateral grouping. Debates of ‘militarization’ of East Asia follow; the step of the Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework has only strengthened trilateralism between the US, Japan, and South Korea.

The author is a Research Assistant at CENJOWS, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.