 "Why Quad will stay relevant in Indo-Pacific even beyond November")
The fourth in-person Quad Summit took place in Wilmington, Delaware, the hometown of US President Joe Biden, on September 21, 2024. In addition to the four in-person summits held so far, two virtual summits have also been convened, one each in March 2021, just after Biden took over as President, and in March 2022, immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
To a question by a journalist at the press meet after the summit whether the Quad will survive beyond the change in the White House in November, President Biden responded jocularly, keeping a friendly arm over the shoulder of PM Narendra Modi, who was standing next to him: ‘’Way beyond November!’’ PM Modi is scheduled to convene the next Quad Summit in India in 2025.
The composition of the Quad will witness two major changes in the coming days and months. Japanese PM Fumio Kishida is due to relinquish charge and hand over power to a new leader in the next few weeks. The United States will go to its presidential elections on November 5, after which either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will assume the mantle of the President of the country on January 21, 2025. In addition, Australian PM Albanese will contest the parliamentary elections in mid-2025. PM Modi is the only Quad leader to have been at the head of the government since the resurrection of the Quad in November, 2017.
Under the significant leadership changes likely to take place in at least two of the four Quad countries in the very near future, it will be useful to consider what the future of this grouping is likely to be in the coming years.
Evolution of the Quad
The Quad marks its 20th anniversary this year. The four countries, viz., Australia, India, Japan, and the USA, came together impromptu and voluntarily to provide humanitarian relief and succour to countries devastated by the catastrophic tsunami that hit several South and Southeast Asian countries on December 26, 2004. The idea of Quad received a further fillip with the Address by the then Japanese PM Shinzo Abe on the ‘Confluence of the Two Seas’ to the Joint Session of the Indian Parliament in August 2007.
However, both the idea of the Quad and the Indo-Pacific received a huge setback with the change of governments in Australia and Japan in late 2007. The Australian PM Kevin Rudd, who came to office in December 2007, two months after the resignation of Japanese PM Abe, decided to scuttle the then-nascent Quadrilateral Security Dialogue at the instance of China. Rudd, as a Mandarin-speaking diplomat, wanted to pander to China, which had already expressed its unhappiness with the concept.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsWith the advent of Xi Jinping at the helm of affairs in Beijing in 2012 and the expansionist policies pursued by China in the South and East China Seas, the dormant idea of the Quad witnessed a resurrection in 2017 by President Donald Trump, who had identified China as a strategic threat to his country and the world.
The Quad has made significant progress since it was revived on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Manila, the Philippines, in November 2017, exactly a decade after the ‘’Confluence of the Two Seas’’ speech by PM Shinzo Abe to the Indian Parliament. The Quad meetings took place at Senior Official level till September 2019, when the first meeting at foreign minister level was held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September 2019, followed by an independent, self-standing meeting of Quad foreign ministers in Tokyo on October 6, 2020.
A significant impetus was provided soon after President Biden assumed office in January 2021 with a virtual summit amongst the four leaders in March 2021, followed by the first in-person summit in Washington, DC, in September 2021. These were followed by subsequent in-person summits in Tokyo in May 2022 and Hiroshima in May 2023. As aforesaid, the Wilmington Summit was the fourth in-person summit, and the one in India in 2025 will be the fifth.
Present Status of the Quad
The Quad has continued to grow from strength to strength over the last three and a half years. When it was revived in November 2017, the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi termed it a bubble and froth on the surface of the ocean, which would dissipate and fade away in a short time. Not only has it not done so, but on the contrary, it has continued to grow stronger, broader, and deeper in its scope and coverage with the passage of time.
The centrepiece of the Wilmington Summit as well as the earlier Summits was the focus on ‘’a free, open, inclusive, and prosperous Indo-Pacific’’. Without mentioning the name of China, the declaration calls out the inimical and pernicious activities of China in the South and East China Seas.
The leaders emphasised, ‘’The importance of adherence to international law, particularly as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to address challenges to the global maritime rules-based order, including with respect to maritime claims.’’ They expressed their ‘’serious concern about the militarisation of disputed features and coercive and intimidating manoeuvres in the South China Sea’’. They condemned ‘’the dangerous use of coast guard and maritime militia vessels, including increasing use of dangerous manoeuvres’’. They reaffirmed ‘’that maritime disputes must be resolved peacefully and in accordance with international law, as reflected in UNCLOS.’’ They re-emphasised the ‘’importance of maintaining and upholding freedom of navigation and overflight, other lawful uses of the sea, and unimpeded commerce consistent with international law… underscore(d) that the 2016 Arbitral Award on the South China Sea is a significant milestone and the basis for peacefully resolving disputes between the parties’’.
The above statements against the destabilising and damaging actions of China are much stronger and bolder than in any previous declaration. Reference to the July 2016 Arbitral Award by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which had completely rejected all of China’s claims in the South China Sea, has been made for the first time in the Quad Summit pronouncements. This is testimony to the greater confidence amongst the Quad leaders for a more robust push back against China for its aggressive tactics in the Indo-Pacific.
The Quad leaders made several path-breaking announcements to promote collaboration amongst the Indo-Pacific nations to enhance peace and security in the maritime domain. These initiatives were in addition to the proclamations made at the Summit in 2022 to offer ‘’near-real-time, integrated, and cost-effective maritime domain awareness information to partners in the region.’’ This included a new regional ‘’Maritime Initiative for Training in the Indo-Pacific (MAITRI), to enable partners in the region to… monitor and secure their waters, enforce their laws, and deter unlawful behaviour’’. India will host the inaugural MAITRI workshop in 2025.
An announcement was also made for the Coast Guards of the four Quad nations to ‘’launch a first-ever Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission in 2025 to improve interoperability and advance maritime safety…’’.
In the area of health, the Quad leaders announced a Quad Cancer Moonshot initiative, a groundbreaking partnership to save lives in the Indo-Pacific region. They committed to pooling their collective investments, scientific and medical capabilities, and contributions from private and non-profit sectors to reduce the burden of cancer in the region. It will initially focus on combating cervical cancer while laying the groundwork to address other forms of cancer. India announced a contribution of $7.5 million for HPV sampling kits, detection tools, and cervical cancer vaccines.
In the area of quality infrastructure, the leaders announced the Quad Ports of the Future Partnership to ‘’harness the Quad’s expertise to support sustainable and resilient port infrastructure development across the Indo-Pacific, in collaboration with regional partners’’.
In 2025, India will host a Quad Regional Ports and Transportation Conference in Mumbai. Through this new partnership, Quad partners intend to coordinate, exchange information, share best practices with partners in the region, and leverage resources to mobilise government and private sector investments in quality port infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific region. This will provide options other than the predatory investment projects offered by China under the Belt and Road Initiative.
They announced the expansion of the Quad Infrastructure Fellowships to more than 2,200 experts. The Quad partners have already provided well over 1,300 fellowships since the initiative was announced at last year’s summit.
The mandate at the first summit in 2021 covered the subjects of critical and emerging technology, supply of Covid-19 vaccines, and climate change. Today the scope has expanded to cover a large number of areas, including quality infrastructure, connectivity, maritime security, healthcare, the Quad Partnership for Cable Connectivity and Resilience, enhancing the resilience of Quad’s semiconductor supply chains, education, cyber security, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, counter-terrorism, space, people-to-people initiatives, and many more.
On regional and global affairs, the leaders reaffirmed their ‘’consistent and unwavering support for ASEAN centrality and unity’’ and ‘’support for Pacific regional institutions that have served the region well over many years, with the PIF (Pacific Islands Forum) as the region’s premier political and economic policy organisation’’.
In addition to the above wide-ranging assertions, the declaration recognises the need to make the UN Security Council ‘’more representative, inclusive, transparent, efficient, effective, democratic, and accountable through expansion in permanent and non-permanent categories’’ of its membership and expresses the ‘’deepest concern over the war raging in Ukraine, including the terrible and tragic humanitarian consequences…need for a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace in line with international law, consistent with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, including respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity".
It denounces ‘’North Korea’s destabilising ballistic missile launches and its continued pursuit of nuclear weapons in violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions’’. Further expressing deep concern for ‘’the worsening political, security, and humanitarian situation in Myanmar, including in Rakhine State,’’ and dealing with other global issues like peace and security in the Middle East, ongoing attacks by the Houthis, disinformation, ‘’implementation of the 2030 Agenda and the achievement of its Sustainable Development Goals’’, etc.
The leaders noted that in addition to the summit-level meetings, the foreign ministers of the four countries had met eight times over the last five years. The Commerce and Industry ministers as well as leaders of the Development Finance Institutions and Agencies are also expected to meet for the first time in the coming months.
It is a measure of the commitment of the leaders of the four countries that, notwithstanding a change of leadership in three of the countries since 2017, the grouping has become even more dynamic, vibrant, and robust than when it started.
Conclusion
The fact that six Quad Summits have been organised in 43 months is not only unprecedented but also testimony to the resolve and steadfastness of the four-member countries to attain its objectives. If the former Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe can be credited with the idea of the Indo-Pacific and former US President Donald Trump with reviving the Quad and the Indo-Pacific after a hiatus of 10 years in 2017, the current US President Joe Biden deserves full appreciation for not only convening the first Quad Summit but also taking it forward in a resolute and decisive manner.
The raison d’etre of the revival of the Quad in 2017 was the belligerent moves by China in its neighbourhood maritime domain. Notwithstanding the bilateral conversations between China and the four members of the Quad, it is unlikely that China will significantly modify its behaviour in the near or medium term, which could force a rethink on the part of any of the four countries to revise their engagement with the Quad. Collaboration on the Quad platform is hence only likely to augment and deepen.
In his statement at the Wilmington Summit, PM Modi said, ‘’The Quad is here to stay.’’ Considering the commitment, effort, and political capital invested by the leaders of the four countries since it was revived in 2017 and the far-reaching decisions adopted over the last four years, there appears little doubt that the Quad will continue to grow and expand in the coming years.
The writer is executive council member, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, president, Institute of Global Studies, Distinguished Fellow, Ananta Aspen Centre, and former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
