Why Jaishankar visiting Islamabad for SCO summit is a right decision

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), comprising ten members—Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan, Iran, and Belarus—is the most significant institution, encompassing a wide swathe of territory and population in Eurasia. It is the world’s largest regional organisation, covering 80 per cent of Eurasia, 42 per cent of the global population, and 32 per cent of the global GDP in purchasing power parity terms.

External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar will visit Pakistan to participate in the Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) meeting of the SCO in Islamabad on October 15-16, 2024. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who will be chairing this meeting, had invited his Indian counterpart Prime Minister Narendra Modi to participate in the event. Instead, it has been decided to depute EAM to head the Indian delegation.

It needs to be understood that the SCO has two high-level institutions, the highest being the Heads of State (HOS) Council, followed by the Heads of Government (HOG) Council. The HOS Council is attended by the presidents of different member countries, including Russia, China, and the four Central Asian countries that are members of the Organisation. Since India does not have a presidential form of government and the prime minister is the executive head of the administration, he has always attended the meetings of the HOS Council.

PM Modi attended the HOS Council meetings in Ufa, Russia, in 2015; in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, in 2016; in Astana, Kazakhstan, in 2017; in Qingdao, China, in 2018; in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, in 2019, and in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, in 2022. HOS Summits in 2020 and 2021 were held virtually, in which also PM Modi participated. India hosted the HOS Summit virtually in 2023. PM Modi could not attend the HOS Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 4, 2024, held in person because of certain unavoidable domestic engagements. He deputed EAM Jaishankar to represent him at the Astana Summit.

As far as the Heads of Government Summits are concerned, PM Modi has never attended any of them. He has mostly deputed either the External Affairs Minister or Defence Minister to represent India in these meetings.

It will be pertinent to mention that on account of the then-ongoing pandemic, India had virtually hosted the 19th Heads of Government Meeting of the SCO in 2020. That year, PM Modi had participated online in the Heads of State Summit organised by Russia just 20 days prior in early November, 2020. It was hence felt appropriate that the Vice President, who in protocol and order of precedence stands above the Prime Minister, chair the Heads of Government meeting on 30 November, 2020. Moreover, PM Modi was otherwise engaged with a domestic commitment in his constituency on that day. Prime Ministers of member countries Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan participated virtually in the meeting except Pakistan, which was represented by its Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs.

Before the decision to depute Jaishankar for the summit was announced by the Indian government, some commentators in India suggested that, taking into account the fact that Pakistan had continued to support terrorism against India, India should decline to send a delegation to Pakistan. Alternatively, India could consider participating at a lower level through the online format. It was their assessment that sending a delegation could send a wrong message domestically as well as to the global community that relations between India and Pakistan are on the mend. It is to the government’s credit that, realising the importance of the SCO for India, it has taken the correct decision to depute EAM to lead the Indian delegation. It would have been a mistake to hold India’s participation at the appropriate level hostage to its relations with Pakistan.

It needs to be recognised that amongst other benefits, one of the most significant advantages of SCO for India is to provide opportunities to the Indian Prime Minister, Ministers, and senior officials to meet the Presidents and counterpart Ministers and officials, respectively, of the Central Asian countries, at the SCO meetings.

Such meetings among varied interlocutors provide a valuable opportunity for Indian leaders to meet and interact with their counterparts, including national security advisors, businessmen, industrialists, academics, experts, etc from Central Asian countries. While India enjoys civilisational and historical ties with all countries of Central Asia, which it refers to as its ‘’extended neighborhood’’, its relations with these countries have not realised the desired potential because of the absence of common borders with any of these countries. In the absence of such contiguity, frequent meetings at the highest level under the aegis of the SCO can provide significant opportunities for expanding engagement with these countries.

India’s participation in some recent SCO high-level meetings has been considered by analysts and academics to be suboptimal. The first in this category is the decision last year by India to host the SCO Summit virtually on July 4, 2023. This announcement was made at the last moment for valid reasons explained by me in an earlier article. However, the decision was seen to be abrupt in view of the fact that several countries in Central Asia and Iran had confirmed the participation of their presidents in person in the summit.

Thereafter, PM Modi was not able to participate, either in person or virtually, in the SCO Heads of State Summit in Kazakhstan on July 4, 2024, because of his preoccupation with the first Parliament Session after the elections, which returned him to power consecutively for the third term.

Most recently, the Commerce Secretary participated virtually in place of the Commerce Minister in a meeting of the Commerce Ministers of SCO countries hosted by Pakistan in September 2024.

Absence of a delegation from India or virtual participation by the Indian delegation in the HOG Meeting in Islamabad in October 2024 would have sent out an unfortunate and inaccurate message that India is not fully invested in the SCO. By maintaining the past practice and sending the EAM to lead the Indian delegation, India has sent out a strong and clear message that India takes its association with the SCO seriously and is keen to expand and deepen its engagement with that institution.

Since the announcement of Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad, a number of reports and commentaries have appeared, particularly in Pakistan and India, that it could represent a thaw in bilateral ties between the two hostile nations. Jaishankar himself, as well as the spokesperson of the Indian foreign office, have stated that the visit is being undertaken purely in the context of the SCO Summit and that there will be no bilateral content of the visit.

Analysts have, however, continued to suggest that the visit could augur a softening of ties between the two countries. It is clear that India will not ask for a bilateral with Jaishankar’s Pakistani counterpart. Considering India’s stance on the issue, the Pakistan foreign office spokesperson has also turned down the possibility of any bilateral meeting. A structured bilateral meeting between the foreign ministers of the two countries is hence highly unlikely.

Contacts at the official level between the two delegations in the context of the SCO deliberations are expected to take place. It is however unlikely that discussions on bilateral relations will be held between members of the delegations.

This will be the first visit by an Indian foreign minister to Pakistan after a gap of nine years. The last visit was by the then-EAM Sushma Swaraj in early December, 2015 for the Heart of Asia Conference on Afghanistan. Jaishankar, who was then India’s foreign secretary, had accompanied EAM Sushma Swaraj to this conference. It was decided during that visit to launch an 8-point comprehensive bilateral dialogue to normalise ties between the two countries. This, however, did not see the light of day on account of the attack by Pakistani terrorists on Pathankot on 1st January, 2016.

There is huge excitement in Pakistan amongst the ordinary citizens, in the media, civil society, and social media about Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan. They are all hoping against hope that some forward movement in bilateral ties would become visible. In all probability, they are likely to be disappointed.

It needs to be realised that the ball is squarely in Pakistan’s court. Pakistan had taken the initiative to call back its ambassador from India and expel the Indian ambassador in the wake of the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019.

Moreover, Pakistan is guilty of fomenting terror against India. The only condition that India has imposed on starting a dialogue with Pakistan is that Pakistan should stop inflicting terrorism on India. Pakistan has not taken any serious action against the terrorist outfits supported by it. On the contrary, cross-border attacks from Pakistan against Indian civilians and security forces are continuing and, in fact, have increased in the Jammu region in recent months.

It is certain that the Indian delegation under Jaishankar’s leadership will participate actively in the HOG Summit in Islamabad. The positions India adopts on various issues will be guided by India’s age-old ethos of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (The Whole World is a Family) as well as India’s vision of SECURE—Security, Economic development, Connectivity, Unity, Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and Environmental protection—which was articulated by PM Modi during India’s Presidency of the SCO in August 2023.

The writer is executive council member, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, president, Institute of Global Studies, Distinguished Fellow, Ananta Aspen Centre, and former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.