Why India and China need lasting peace beyond mere de-escalation

The recent meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, their first formal bilateral in five years, is crucial amidst ongoing tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The leaders’ agreement to resolve the military standoff prompts reflection on the evolution of India-China relations and its broader implications. Historically, the India-China relationship has fluctuated between cooperation and conflict, shaped by post-colonial aspirations, geopolitical strategies, and historical grievances. This meeting is significant not just for bilateral ties but for its impact on global peace, stability, and progress.

The “Indo-Chini Bhai Bhai” Phase

In the early 1950s, the relationship between India and China was marked by a sense of solidarity. The slogan “Indo-Chini Bhai Bhai” (India and China are brothers) captured the spirit of cooperation between two newly independent nations navigating a world shaped by the Cold War. The signing of the Panchsheel Agreement in 1954, which emphasised mutual respect for sovereignty, non-aggression, and peaceful coexistence, symbolised the optimism of that period. Both countries sought to assert their positions in the international order, and for a brief period, they found common ground in anti-colonialism and non-alignment.

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However, this phase of camaraderie was short-lived. By 1962, border disputes had culminated in a full-scale war, leading to a bitter fallout that shattered the illusion of “Indo-Chini Bhai Bhai”. The war created long-lasting animosities, especially concerning the contested territories of Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. The unresolved border issue became a simmering point of tension in the decades that followed, colouring much of the diplomatic engagement between the two nations.

Decades of Uneasy Diplomacy

For much of the 20th century, India and China maintained a tenuous relationship, characterised by sporadic efforts at reconciliation interspersed with periods of mistrust. The 1990s saw a thaw, with both countries beginning to pursue economic reforms and recognising the potential benefits of cooperation. Bilateral trade began to grow, and both countries took steps to improve border management, culminating in agreements such as the 1993 Border Peace and Tranquillity Agreement.

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However, even as economic ties expanded, the underlying border dispute never truly went away. Military standoffs and skirmishes continued to occur periodically, with each side accusing the other of provocations along the LAC. Despite these tensions, the overall diplomatic narrative was one of cautious engagement, as both India and China recognised the strategic and economic importance of maintaining a stable relationship.

2017 Doklam Standoff: A Turning Point

The 2017 Doklam standoff was a pivotal moment that marked a shift in India-China relations. The 73-day standoff, which revolved around China’s attempt to build a road on disputed territory near the India-Bhutan-China tri-junction, brought the two nations dangerously close to military conflict. While the crisis was eventually defused through diplomatic negotiations, it underscored the fragility of the peace along the LAC and highlighted the potential for small disputes to escalate into larger confrontations.

Doklam served as a precursor to the more severe tensions that would emerge in 2019 and 2020. The standoff marked the beginning of a more assertive phase in India-China relations as both sides ramped up their military presence and infrastructure development along the LAC. It also signalled a shift in China’s regional strategy, as Beijing sought to project its power more assertively in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region.

The Abrogation of Article 370

India’s August 2019 decision to abrogate Article 370, which revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, intensified tensions with China, particularly regarding Ladakh, which borders Chinese-controlled Aksai Chin. Beijing opposed the move, marking the beginning of heightened confrontations along the LAC. Indian and Chinese troops faced off in key areas like Pangong Tso, Galwan Valley, and Hot Springs.

Tensions peaked in June 2020, with the deadly Galwan Valley clash, where hand-to-hand combat led to the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers—the first such fatalities since 1975. This incident sent shockwaves through bilateral relations and fuelled nationalist sentiments in both nations. In response, India reduced its economic dependence on China, banning Chinese apps and scrutinising Chinese investments.

Infrastructure Development and Strategic Rivalry

A key driver of LAC tensions has been the infrastructure buildup on both sides. India has accelerated road and military infrastructure development in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh in response to perceived Chinese encroachments. China, in turn, has built roads, airstrips, and military installations in Tibet and Xinjiang, aiming to consolidate its hold over Aksai Chin and extend its influence into South Asia.

This infrastructure race has intensified the strategic rivalry. For India, improved connectivity in border regions is crucial for asserting territorial claims and enhancing its ability to counter Chinese incursions. For China, infrastructure serves both strategic and economic goals, strengthening its control over contested areas while promoting the integration of Tibet and Xinjiang into its broader economy.

A Path to De-escalation?

In recent years, India and China have held multiple military and diplomatic talks to ease LAC tensions. In February 2021, both sides agreed to disengage in areas near Pangong Tso, with further discussions addressing unresolved issues in the Depsang Plains and Gogra-Hot Springs. However, tensions remain. A clash in December 2022 in Arunachal Pradesh’s Tawang sector underscored the ongoing volatility and full disengagement that have yet to be achieved. The recent Modi-Xi meeting signals their shared commitment to resolving the military standoff and stabilising relations, with Modi emphasising the relationship’s importance for both nations and global peace.

In a Multipolar World

India-China relations must be understood in the context of a rapidly shifting global order. Both nations are central to an emerging multipolar world where regional dynamics and global governance are in flux. For India, its relationship with China is part of a broader strategy to assert its influence in Asia and globally, as seen through its participation in the Quad and strengthening ties with the US to balance China’s presence in the Indo-Pacific. Meanwhile, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and assertiveness in South Asia and the Indian Ocean raise concerns about its strategic intentions.

The India-China rivalry extends beyond border disputes to competing visions for regional and global leadership. While the Modi-Xi meeting signals progress toward resolving LAC tensions, the greater challenge lies in managing their strategic rivalry without escalating tensions further. Historically, cooperation between the two has often given way to conflict. Moving forward, both countries must manage their differences while acknowledging the broader implications of their relationship, which impacts not only their development goals but also regional and global peace.

Amal Chandra is an author, political analyst and columnist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.