Why Congress may prefer to go ‘ekla chalo’ after Delhi election results

The Congress in the Delhi assembly polls has reportedly decided not to support the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) under no circumstances should the February 8 verdict throw up a hung house in the national capital.

Informed party sources said that Rahul Gandhi sought a firm commitment of his hands off policy towards the AAP before launching his electoral campaign. Rahul is said to have conveyed to both central and state party leaderships that in the post-poll scenario, he would not subject himself to ‘ridicule’ by extending support to the AAP after accusing them of corruption, misgovernance and involvement in an alleged liquor scam.

In 2013, the Congress was instrumental in crowning Arvind Kejriwal as chief minister of Delhi when the grand old party had won eight seats and extended outside support to the newly formed AAP which had gained 28 assembly seats. In the subsequent assembly polls of 2015 and 2020, the Congress drew a blank.

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The grand old party is fighting the ongoing Delhi polls in a complete disarray—both in terms of poll strategy, campaign style and party’s long-term objectives as a national level party. In this context, Rahul’s ‘hands off’ policy towards AAP comes as a belated attempt to find some foothold in Delhi polls.

The Congress’ Delhi strategy effectively marks an end of the INDIA alliance and reduces the office of the Congress president, a piece of ornament. The 88th president of the AICC, Mapanna Mallikarjun Kharge, may not be a great vote catcher in the national capital but his absence from the party’s campaign video is a glaring omission. The campaign video also had a fleeting reference to Sheila Dixit who was Delhi chief minister for three consecutive terms.

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Kharge had painstakingly contributed in building the INDIA alliance since 2022 after assuming the office of the Congress president. Using his acumen and conciliation skills to a hilt, he had managed to rope in Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar, Arvind Kejriwal, Tejaswi Yadav, Udhav Thackeray and range of maverick, mercurial regional satraps to shape INDIA alliance. The alliance did reasonably well in 2024 general elections in spite of Nitish Kumar switching sides at a crucial juncture. The sight of Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav canvassing support for Arvind Kejriwal and almost every member of INDIA alliance siding with the AAP in Delhi polls must have saddened and dismayed Kharge.

After June 4, 2024, when Kharge planned to shape the INDIA alliance as a permanent and proactive forum, something happened internally. Suddenly, there was a buzz of consolidating a ‘Congress story’ instead of combining the opposition’s rainbow alliance following up its pre-poll efforts with a shadow cabinet, president and convenor of INDIA alliance and a full-time secretariat in Delhi.

Subsequently, the Congress exuberance for Haryana caught Kharge in a bind, weakening and eroding INDIA alliance unity. Post Maharashtra electoral setback, Kharge could sense growing disillusionment and disquiet within the INDIA Parivar. However, internal party dynamics were such that Kharge could not save INDIA alliance disintegration. What is more intriguing and perhaps bizarre is the fact that while he continues to enjoy the confidence of both Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, machinations of some senior Congress functionaries are giving him little opportunity to save the alliance.

Rahul Gandhi is said to have bought party treasurer Ajay Makan’s recipe to target and isolate the AAP even if it means BJP winning Delhi assembly polls. In Makan’s scheme of things, the Congress revival in Delhi now or in 2030 can only take place at the expense of AAP’s downfall. While agreeing to Makan’s line, many Congress stalwarts are unsure of the efficacy of such an adventurous course. According to them, the Congress may fall between the two stools if AAP, under Kejriwal’s leadership manages to retain Delhi with a reduced margin.

Rahul’s camp is, however, buoyed by an internal survey conducted by poll strategist Sunil Kanugolu that predicts ten assembly seats for the party and eight per cent of votes. Both in terms of political logic, statistical analysis and ground situation, the prospects of Congress netting ten seats appears a bit far-fetched. Moreover, if Congress indeed manages to live up to Kanugolu’s expectations, the vote percentage would certainly go up, much more than his prediction. In 2013, the Congress had bagged 24.6 per cent votes while winning eight assembly seats. By 2020, the Congress vote share in Delhi assembly polls had come down to 4 per cent in 2020 polls.

Makan’s growing stature and proximity to Rahul has rattled a section of the Congress. Party leaders claim that Makan has directly approached leading TV news channels and given them election campaign ads without consulting the AICC’s communication department consisting of Jairam Ramesh, Pawan Khera and Supriya Shrinate. Bizarre as it may sound, Makan’s purse did not discriminate between channels that Ramesh-Khera-Shrinate often accused of being ‘godi media’ or belonging to a business house often singled out by Rahul Gandhi for allegedly being hand-in-glove with prime minister Narendra Modi.

The author is a Visiting Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. A well-known political analyst, he has written several books, including ‘24 Akbar Road’ and ‘Sonia: A Biography’. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.