Why a reset in India-Maldives ties is important for both

A common goal of diplomacy is to build better relationships with other nations, even those with adversarial relationships. This is even more important if those nations are your neighbours. Historically, all global powers rose as regional powers before becoming global powers. Thus, a successful neighbourhood policy is needed because if some neighbours are unfriendly, they will almost certainly try to block India’ rise as a global power.

Turning adversaries into allies can be a significant outcome of successful diplomacy, but it is easier said than done.

A carefully planned approach is needed, which must comprise several strategies, such as utilising dialogue and negotiation to de-escalate tensions, building relationships and establishing agreements on various issues like trade, climate change, or security, and creating a framework to interact and manage relations in a mutually beneficial manner.

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India’s neighbourhood is often described as hostile due to a complex interplay of historical factors, geopolitical rivalries, and ongoing disputes. These include unresolved border issues, religious and ethnic tensions, and concerns about India’s regional dominance. The partition of British India in 1947 created Pakistan, and the resulting division led to long-standing animosity and mistrust, with Pakistan often viewing India as an existential threat.

India has unresolved border disputes with several neighbours, including China and Pakistan, which have resulted in armed conflicts and ongoing tensions. India’s aspiration to be a regional power is seen by some neighbours as a threat to their sovereignty and autonomy, leading to counterbalancing efforts and strategic competition.

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The relationship with Pakistan is particularly fraught with historical baggage, including the Kashmir conflict, cross-border terrorism, and nuclear weapons competition. India and China share a long border with disputed areas, and there is ongoing competition for influence in the region, including infrastructure development and military presence.

The relationship between Bangladesh and India has experienced a period of worsening following the removal of Sheikh Hasina’s government and the establishment of the Muhammad Yunus-led interim administration. Even during Sheikh Hasina’s rule, issues like border management, water sharing, and migration continued to pose challenges.

Nepal is strategically important for India, but it has concerns about India’s influence and potential interference in its internal affairs. The island nations Sri Lanka and the Maldives are also within India’s sphere of influence, but India faces competition from other powers, particularly China, for influence in these countries.

Despite the challenges, India has been actively pursuing a “Neighbourhood First” policy, aiming to enhance cooperation and development assistance to its neighbours. This policy involves initiatives like infrastructure development, trade and investment, and capacity building, with the goal of fostering closer ties and promoting regional stability. However, the success of this policy is contingent on addressing the underlying issues and building trust with its neighbours.

Against this background, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Maldives must be seen as a very important diplomatic step. Maldives holds a significant position among India’s vital maritime neighbours. India has actively engaged in various efforts aimed at bolstering the defence and security infrastructure in the Maldives through capacity development and capability enhancement. India has steadfastly provided financial aid and helped towards maintaining the security of the island nation.

Under President Mohamed Muizzu, India-Maldives relations have experienced a period of strain, largely due to his “India Out” campaign. Muizzu campaigned for the presidency on a platform advocating for the withdrawal of Indian military personnel from the Maldives. This rhetoric, aimed at bolstering Maldivian sovereignty and nationalism, created friction with India. Actions taken after assuming office further worsened relations. Muizzu’s first act as president was to formally request the withdrawal of Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives.

While India eventually replaced its military personnel with civilians, this initial demand signalled a shift from the previous administration’s “India First” policy. Muizzu pursued a policy of diversifying the Maldives’ foreign relations, including strengthening ties with China. This included Muizzu’s choice to make his first official trip to China instead of New Delhi, breaking with established tradition.

Comments targeting PM Modi also negatively impacted the relationship. In January 2024, Maldivian government officials, reportedly affiliated with the Muizzu administration, made derogatory remarks on social media aimed at the Indian prime minister. These comments, although later disavowed by the Maldivian government, resulted in a strong backlash in India and negatively impacted tourism from India to the Maldives.

Such actions, particularly the “India Out” campaign, created a period of tension and uncertainty in the traditionally strong relationship between India and the Maldives. More recently, however, relations seem to be recalibrating. India has provided significant economic assistance to the Maldives, and Muizzu has toned down some of his anti-India rhetoric. He has visited India, and both leaders have pledged to open a new chapter in bilateral ties.

This culminated in Prime Minister Modi’s recent visit to the Maldives on July 25-26 as the guest of honour at the Maldives’ 60th Independence Day celebrations, signalling a potential warming of relations. PM Modi’s two-day trip is aimed at boosting India’s development partnership with the Maldives. This is his first visit to the island nation since President Muizzu took office. As PM Modi put it, “Peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indian Ocean region are our shared goals.” He stressed that India will remain the “first responder” for the Maldives and that it will “continue to support the Maldives in strengthening its defence capabilities”.

PM Modi announced a $565 million credit line, saying that “This will be used for projects linked to infrastructure development in line with the priorities of the Maldivian people.” The Maldives president said that the credit line from India would be used to strengthen the Maldives’ security forces, as well as improve healthcare, housing, and education. He added that “India’s continued assistance to the Maldives through the export of essential commodities is a key facet of our bilateral cooperation".

The reset in bilateral ties that is taking place was evident from President Muizzu’s remarks at the banquet that he hosted for PM Modi. Muizzu said, “This year marks 60 years of diplomatic relations between the Maldives and India, a milestone that reflects not only our shared history but also the depth and resilience of our partnership. Yet, the bond between our people predates diplomatic formalities. For centuries, the Indian Ocean has been a witness to our shared journey. As traders, travellers, and neighbours, we exchanged goods, stories, and ideas across these waters for centuries. It is the same ocean that unites us today with ties that no tide can break.”

Heaping praise on India, he added: “India has long stood as the Maldives’s closest and most trusted partner. Our collaboration spans a wide range of areas, from security and trade to healthcare, education and beyond, touching the everyday lives of our citizens. Every day hundreds of Maldivians travel to India for medical care, education and business, just as we warmly welcome members of the Indian diaspora who continue to contribute meaningfully to our economy and society. My Govt’s vision is clear, to build a resilient, inclusive and forward-looking economy that is vibrant to empower our youth, to thrive in the digital age and to ensure lasting peace and security in our shared region. In pursuing these goals, India’s partnership remains invaluable.”

PM Modi reciprocated the warm sentiments expressed by the Maldives president. “India-Maldives relations are centuries old. We are neighbours, partners, and true friends who stand together in times of need. Like I said earlier too, Maldives holds a special place in India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy…This is not just diplomacy but a relation of deep affinity,” PM Modi said.

The Maldivian government, under President Muizzu, still maintains a close relationship with China. Relations between China and the Maldives are experiencing a period of strengthened ties and elevated cooperation. The Maldives has emphasised that its friendship with China should not be influenced by any third party and that it will safeguard regional peace and development. However, China’s loans for infrastructure projects have raised concerns about the Maldives’ debt burden, as China is its largest external creditor.

Summing up, Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the Maldives on its 60th Independence Day as Guest of Honour marks a significant step towards improved relations. Following a period of strained relations, there are signs that the Maldives is moving towards a more cooperative stance towards India. While President Muizzu’s initial policy sought to distance the Maldives from India, recent interactions suggest a shift towards repairing and strengthening ties. The shift towards pragmatic diplomacy suggests that the Maldives is recognising the strategic importance of both India and China as regional powers and is now seeking to balance its relationships with the two regional powers.

The writer is a retired Indian diplomat and had previously served as Consul General in New York. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.