What message Muizzu’s diplomatic reset with New Delhi serves to India’s neighbours

Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu is currently on a four-day state visit to India from October 6 to October 10. On Monday, October 7, 2024, he signed a deal with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a currency swap, which will help the archipelago nation manage the debt crisis. Both the leaders inaugurated and launched a lot of developmental schemes that will boost the ties between their countries.

Notably, when Muizzu was running for the presidential office, he ran the ‘India Out’ campaign. The campaign created the scepticism towards the Indian investment and fuelled more hatred in the Maldives, even though India had been generous in giving billions of dollars of aid. This campaign boosted anti-Indian sentiments in Maldivian citizens. When Muizzu got elected, he broke the long-lasting tradition of his country’s elected Head of State to visit New Delhi. Instead, he went to China and provided a diplomatic snub to India. In December 2023, he announced a withdrawal of Indian troops in the island nation deployed for humanitarian causes.

These events were not just enough. When India’s Prime Minister Modi visited India’s southern islands, Lakshadweep, to promote local tourism earlier this year, the rabid and vocal anti-Indian ministers of Muizzu’s cabinet—Maryam Shiuna, Malsha Shareef, and Mahzoom Majid—launched scathing attacks against India and Modi then. At this time, the calls on the Indian side of social media to boycott the Maldives became strong. Sceptics, as usual, were doubtful if any results would yield out of this.

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Fast forward to 2024’s October. Muizzu has come to the table for negotiation; the 5th India-Maldives Defence Dialogue was concluded last month in September. While many factors have contributed to the new posture of Muizzu, one major among them is the rise of India’s aspiring middle class.

In 2023, Indians made up the largest part of tourists that visited the island nation. However, in 2024, India is now at number 6 in terms of tourists visiting the Maldives. The number of Indian tourists visiting the Maldives dropped by over 50,000 in the past year, as per the official figures by the Maldives’ Ministry of Tourism. This is a 40 per cent drop when compared to the January to August period of the previous year. The BBC has reported that this has led to a huge loss of $150 million.

The Maldives committed a mistake by ignoring India’s aspiring middle class. This class has a high disposable income and has aspirations to travel across the globe, unlike their previous generations, who stood content with domestic tourism. The rise of this demographic has not only reshaped India’s economic landscape but has also become a formidable force in international relations.

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India’s economic trajectory over the past decade has been nothing short of remarkable. With a GDP growth rate consistently outpacing many developed nations, India has solidified its position as one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies. This economic boom has given birth to a burgeoning middle class, estimated to comprise over 350 million people—a number larger than the entire population of many countries. This number is expected to grow rapidly as India makes progress in the economy.

This has been recognised by multiple countries; however, the Maldives had been in the deep sleep. From this October, Sri Lanka has started offering visa-free entries to Indians. Thailand and Malaysia, another destination for travel to Indians, have been offering visa-free entries to Indian nationals since last November.

The boycott calls on Indian social media, initially dismissed by some as insignificant, have proven to be a powerful economic tool. The Indian middle class, armed with purchasing power and a strong sense of national pride, has shown its ability to impact bilateral relations through consumer choices. This shift highlights the growing importance of public sentiment in shaping foreign policy and economic ties between nations.

For the Maldives, the lesson from recent events is clear: underestimating the power of India’s economy and the influence of its middle class can have significant consequences. As the island nation seeks to diversify its economy and reduce its vulnerability to external shocks, cooperation with India could prove invaluable. From infrastructure development to capacity building in emerging sectors, India’s experience and resources could play a crucial role in the Maldives’ economic transformation.

India-Maldives relations since the last year have served as a case study of the interplay between public sentiment, economic interests, and diplomatic relations. The power of the Indian middle class in influencing international relations through consumer choices has been clearly demonstrated. This phenomenon is likely to play an increasingly important role in shaping India’s foreign policy and its relationships with neighbouring countries.

In conclusion, President Muizzu’s visit to India represents not just a diplomatic reset but an acknowledgement of India’s growing economic might and the influence of its aspiring middle class. As India continues its economic ascent, countries in the region will need to recalibrate their approach to engage constructively with this emerging economic powerhouse. The Maldives’ experience serves as a reminder that in today’s interconnected world, economic relations and public sentiment can be as powerful as traditional diplomatic tools in shaping bilateral ties.

The writer is an independent columnist who writes on international relations, and socio-political affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.