Weather Report: Summer to set in north India from next week; southern states experiencing above-average heat

A western disturbance affected the Himalayas during the midweek, resulting in a fresh spell of light to moderate snowfall and rainfall over Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. The spell of spring precipitation is constant this year, unlike last year, when the spring-to-summer transition was quick in the absence of western disturbances.

Himachal Pradesh precipitation in the span of 24 hours till 8:30 am on 14th March:

Snowfall

Hansa: 10.1 cm
Kalpa: 9.6 cm
Kukumsheri: 6.2 cm
Pooh: 6.0 cm
Sangla: 5.6 cm
Keylong: 5.0 cm
Khadrala: 4.0 cm

Rainfall

Dalhousie: 45.0 mm
Manali: 29.0 mm
Chamba: 22.0 mm
Jogindernagar: 22.0 mm
Seobagh: 17.8 mm
Pandoh: 12.5 mm

Gulmarg recorded 22.0 cm of snowfall ending at 8:30 a.m. on March 14, followed by Pahalgam at 3.0 cm.

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Rainfall

Banihal: 44.8 mm
Batote: 43.6 mm
Ramban: 30.0 mm
Qazi Gund: 24.6 mm
Kukernag: 18.1 mm
Bhaderwah: 15.6 mm
Kupwara: 14.9 mm
Udhampur: 11.2 mm
Srinagar: 9.1 mm
Katra: 4.6 mm
Jammu: 1.6 mm

It was another pleasant week with comfortable temperature ranges in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi NCR, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar, as the minimum temperature hovers between 10 and 14°C while daytime temperatures are near 30°C.

Heat is on in the southern peninsula as the maximum temperature breaches the 40°C mark in a few places as summer enters the first phase; however heat waves have not made an entry so far.

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Maximum temperature in parts of Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Telangana on March 16:

Anantapur: 41.4°C
Cuddapah: 41.2°C
Kurnool: 39.9°C
Punalur: 39.6°C
Adilabad: 38.8°C
Palakkad: 38.7°C
Nalgonda: 38.0°C
Tirupati: 37.4°C
Hyderabad: 35.8°C
Vijayawada: 35.5°C
Vishakapatnam: 35.5°C
Kochi: 35.4°C

Temperatures started to rise over east India in the past week; however, the season’s first norwester has also kicked in, in the region. Kolkata saw the first Kalbaishakhi of the season on the late evening of March 15, when Dum Dum observatory recorded 4 mm while Alipore saw 6 mm of rainfall. Another light rain patch moved into the city on March 16 and poured 1 mm of rainfall across the city.

Rainfall recorded in various parts of Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, and Maharashtra ending at 8:30 am on March 17 from the first spell of norwester:

Contai: 48 mm
Bagati: 24 mm
Digha: 19 mm
Burdwan: 17 mm
Midnapore: 11 mm
Baripada: 10 mm
Jharsuguda: 7 mm
Shanti Niketan: 6 mm
Rourkela: 6 mm
Jamshedpur: 6 mm
Malda: 5 mm
Bankura: 4 mm
Ranchi: 3 mm
Angul: 3 mm

Let’s take a look at the seasonal rainfall in India, categorised from the pre-monsoon season until mid-March.

The pan-India actual rainfall so far in the period of March 1–16 stands at 13.3 mm against the normal of 15.1 mm; the departure from normal currently stands at -12 per cent.

Subdivision-wise pre-monsoon seasonal rainfall during March 1–16, 2024:

Southern Peninsula: Actual 0.3 mm against the average of 8.1 mm, a 96 per cent departure from normal.
East and North East India: Actual 10.6 mm against the average of 24.5 mm, a -57 per cent departure from normal.
North West India: Actual 33.4 mm against the average of 25.8 mm, +29 per cent departure from normal.
Central India: Actual 3.8 mm against the average of 5.1 mm, a 25 per cent departure from normal.

Current synoptic weather features influencing weather in India as of March 17, 2024:

• The trough from south Odisha to Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim across Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal at 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

• The trough from Marathwada to Comorin Area across interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu at 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

• The trough in westerlies at 3.1 km above mean sea level roughly along Long. 93°E to the north of Lat. 24°N persists.

• A fresh Western disturbance is likely to affect the Western Himalayan Region on March 18, 2024.

• Another fresh Western disturbance is likely to affect the Western Himalayan Region on March 20, 2024.

All India weather forecast till March 24, 2024:

Pre-monsoon rains batter east and north-east India.

Weak Kalbaishakhi events were triggered last week, starting Friday, in parts of east India and are all set to intensify in the coming week. A trough as a confluence zone of dry north-west winds and moist south-easterly is present over Odisha, West Bengal, and Jharkhand. This is creating high instability in the lower and mid-layers of the atmosphere. As a result, the upcoming week, starting March 18 until March 23, will host widespread norwesters in east India.

Morning hours will be mainly dry, but thunder clouds will start developing in the afternoon hour and peak during late evening and night.

Widespread moderate to heavy rain, hailstorms, lightning strikes, and thunder are expected across West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Vidarbha, east Madhya Pradesh, and south Bihar for the next four to five days.

This prolonged spell of rain will also ensure a drop in daytime temperatures and restrict the entry of summers in the eastern parts of the country for another week, as temperature anomalies will be 4 to 5°C below normal.

The climate pattern this year seems to be pretty normal; south-east winds will start reaching north-east states over the upcoming week. This will ensure on time the start of pre-monsoon showers in Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, Tripura, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh. The rains during the upcoming week will remain mainly light to moderate in nature and restricted to the second half of the day; hence, afternoons will remain warm and humid.

Southern parts of India would continue to bake under hot weather as pre-monsoon rains have yet to set in. Normally, light to moderate rains start in Kerala and the south interiors of Karnataka, including Bangalore, during the second half of March; however, this time it would continue to stay relatively drier, resulting in abnormally high temperatures.

From March 18 to March 22, moderate to heavy rains and thunderstorms will occur in parts of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. This would bring significant relief to the states from building heat; day temperatures will fall by at least 2 to 3°C. No major change is planned in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, and Goa, which will continue to experience dry and hot weather till March 24th, 2024.

Spring will fade away steadily in north India as weather models hint at a rise in temperature over the upcoming week in the absence of any major western disturbance.

One of the major factors controlling the rise in temperatures won’t be approaching northern India for the next week or two. As a result, north-west winds will start becoming warmer. Both minimum and maximum temperatures are predicted to increase by 3–4 °C during March 19–24 across Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi NCR, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar.

In the Himalayas, winters will still prevail, as nights are likely to stay chilly under clear skies. A weak western disturbance around March 21 will bring a spell of fresh light snowfall over the upper reaches. The strength of the upcoming western disturbance will remain feeble for the rest of March, and one can expect the onset of summers at least in Rajasthan towards the end of March.

The writer, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.