Weather report: Delhi experiences colder March, but summer to set in at end of month

Nippy cold winds from the snow-clad Himalayas after the passage of the western disturbance are keeping north-west, central, and east India abnormally cold for the first week of March.

The national capital, Delhi, experienced the coldest streak, reporting minimum temperatures in single digits after 1990.

In 1990, during the period of March 1 to 5, Safdarjung observatory recorded 8.3°C, 8.7°C, 9.4°C, 8.8°C, and 9.3°C, respectively; however, this year, during the period of 4th to 8th March, Delhi reported 9.5°C, 9.0°C, 9.0°C, 8.8°C, and 9.6°C, respectively. The streak broke on Saturday morning when it saw a minimum temperature of 10.0°C; despite the double digit, it is 4°C below normal.

Similarly, other parts of Punjab, Haryana, and north-west Rajasthan reported minimum temperatures in the range of 5 to 9°C in the past couple of days and reported a coldwave in March for 5 days in a row, which is very rare.

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Cities in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, and the interiors of Maharashtra also saw night temperatures dip below 15°C in the first week of March, extending the spring season in the region.

Under clear skies, mountains get chillier quickly. The anomaly in minimum temperatures was higher in the Himalayas; many stations reported minimum temperatures below normal by 4 to 8°C.

Minimum temperature in various hill stations of Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Kashmir and Uttarakhand on March 9, 2024:

Padum: -26.4°C
Keylong: -9.9°C
Leh: -8.6°C
Sonamarg: -7.0°C
Gulmarg: -6.0°C
Kalpa: -3.6°C
Harshil: -2.4°C
Srinagar: -0.2°C
Manali: 0.9°C
Narkanda: 1.8°C
Bhaderwah: 2.0°C
Mukteshwar: 3.9°C
Almora: 4.1°C

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While the north is having a breather of pleasant spring afternoons as maximum temperatures are under 30°C, it has started to become sizzling hot in the southern states. Bangalore recorded the hottest morning of the season as the maximum temperature touched 36°C on March 6, 4°C above climatology normal for this time of the year. Bangalore generally sees the peak of summers from mid-March until mid-April, and pre-monsoon thunderstorms start after that, which helps in reducing the temperatures to the sub-30°C range.

Take a look at the top 10 hottest stations in India on March 8; all of them were from southern states:
1. Anantapur: 40.5°C
2 Kurnool: 40.4°C
3 Cuddapah: 39.8°C
4 Palakkad: 39.7°C
5 Erode: 39.6°C
6 Nandyal: 39.5°C
7 Gulbarga: 39.2°C
8 Tirupati: 39.2°C
9 Sholapur: 39.1°C
10 Paramathy: 39.0°C

In terms of precipitation, this week saw negligible amounts of rainfall, except in the western Himalayas during the early days of the week.

The actual rainfall in Pan India so far in the period from March 1 to March 9 stands at 11.5 mm against the normal of 7.8 mm; the departure from normal currently stands at +47 per cent.

Subdivision-wise pre-monsoon seasonal rainfall during March 1st–9th, 2024:

Southern Peninsula: Actual 0.2 mm against the average of 4.0 mm, a 95 per cent departure from normal.

East and North-East India: Actual 6.3 mm against the average of 12.7 mm, a -51 per cent departure from normal.

North-West India: Actual 30.3 mm against the average of 13.4 mm, +126 per cent departure from normal.

Central India: Actual 3.4 mm against the average of 2.6 mm, +31 per cent departure from normal.

Current synoptic weather features influencing weather in India as of March 9, 2024:

A fresh western disturbance as a trough in middle tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level runs roughly along Long. 50°E to the north of Lat. 28°N.

The trough in westerlies at 3.1 km above mean sea level now runs roughly along Long. 93°E to the north of Lat. 26°N.

The trough from Telangana to Comorin now runs from Vidarbha to south Tamil Nadu across Marathwada and Karnataka at 0.9 km above mean sea level.

The cyclonic circulation over Telangana and the neighbourhood now lies over south Odisha and the neighbourhood and extends up to 1.5 km above mean sea level.

Another fresh western disturbance is likely to affect northwest India on March 12, 2024.

The trough in the middle tropospheric westerlies, with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along Long. 78°E to the north of Lat. 32°N, has moved away from east-northeast awards.

The trough from north Odisha to north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam at 0.9 km above mean sea level has become less marked.

All India weather forecast till March 17, 2024:

When we look at the general climatology of India, pre-monsoon rains, commonly known as mango showers, start in the second and third weeks of March over some parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and also North East India, which starts its rainy season in mid-March.

Nevertheless, this year doesn’t seem to be starting well, as no wind instability is likely to develop in the southern states for another week or two.

Moisture incursions from the Bay of Bengal trigger rainy clouds over north-east India, and this phenomenon will not happen for at least one more week; hence, states will continue to experience dry and hot weather conditions.

Maximum temperatures are predicted in the range of 35 to 39°C in many parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, and Goa until March 17th. Hot winds are likely to bake parts of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh as temperatures are predicted in the range of 38 to 42°C over the coming week, especially after March 13th, which will be 3-5°C above normal for this time of the year.

The heat will not restrict itself to the south, as one expects dry weather conditions to prevail in central and eastern India during the entire next week. Daytime temperatures will start soaring above 35°C at most stations in Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Maharashtra to welcome the first spell of summers by mid-March. Nights are also going to get slightly warmer as minimum temperatures are about to cross the 20°C barrier at a few stations.

The heat will breach from south to centre, but it will get restricted while approaching north.

A fresh western disturbance is expected to approach the western Himalayas on March 10, which will be feeble in nature. Another moderately active western disturbance is expected to influence north India during March 12–14. It will bring a fresh spell of moderate to heavy snowfall over Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand for 3 days in the next week. The impact on plains will be restricted to parts of Punjab and north Haryana, where scattered moderate rains and hailstorms are predicted on March 13 and 14. Delhi NCR, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh will only be experiencing partly cloudy weather.

With another spell of wet weather around the corner, north India will continue to embrace the beauty of spring for the next 10 days.

Summers are likely to intensify towards the end of March

The seasonal change is ahead, as anti-cyclonic circulation will start developing around west India after mid-March. This might result in a quick and sudden summer onset in north India by the end of March.

Technically, anti-cyclonic circulation is an area of sinking air that results in the development of high pressure over a large geographical area; the area of high pressure experiences a small pressure gradient, the atmospheric pressure and air do not change rapidly, and winds become gentle in nature. As the air starts sinking, it warms up, leading to warm and dry weather.

In the Northern Hemisphere, including India, winds in anti-cyclonic circulation rotate in a clockwise direction. In layman’s terms, the building up of a high-pressure area over a large geographical area results in hot weather conditions.

The writer, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.