Weather report: Cyclone in early March may damage crops in north India

Spring has stretched legs in the interiors of the country, but cold nights have extended as well, making it feel like winters are still present in the night and morning hours.

The passage of western disturbances and clear skies in the late night has significantly lowered the minimum temperature across the Himalayan states.

Minimum Temperature across Himachal Pradesh on February 23, 2024:

Keylong: -14.9°C
Sumdo: -8.9°C
Kalpa: -5.0°C
Manali: -1.9°C
Bhuntar: 0.3°C
Dalhousie: 0.5°C
Solan: 0.7°C
Shimla: 1.2°C
Sundernagar: 1.6°C
Bilaspur: 1.9°C
Mandi: 2.1°C
Chamba: 2.6°C
Una: 3.2°C
Kangra AP: 4.2°C
Dharamshala: 5.2°C
Nahan: 6.1°C

Minimum temperature in Leh:

Padum: -25.1°C
Drass: -21.0°C
Keylong: -14.0°C
Leh: -13.9°C
Sonamarg: -12.4°C
Gulmarg: -10.4°C
Sumdo: -9.8°C
Badrinath: -9.3°C
Kalpa: -5.6°C
Auli: -4.4°C
Shopian: -4.2°C
Bharmaur: -3.6°C
Kupwara: -3.1°C
Manali: -2.1°C
Bhaderwah: -1.0°C

February 25 marks one of the coldest mornings in parts of Uttarakhand, as Harsil recorded a minimum temperature of -7.9 °C.

Along with hills, cold northwest winds swept across the plains of north India, and the minimum temperature took a sharp dip of 5 to 6°C and was marked below normal at 3 to 4°C in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi NCR, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.

Minimum temperature reported from some stations in plains of north India on February 23:

Mahendragarh: 3.9°C
Adampur: 4.5°C
Sikar: 5.0°C
Karnal; 5.0°C
Gurgaon: 5.0°C
Moga: 5.2°C
Hanumangarh: 5.4°C
Karauli: 5.4°C
Ujwa (Delhi): 5.5°C
Najibabad: 5.5°C
Rewari: 5.5°C
Pathankot: 5.5°C
Fatehgarh Sahib: 5.5°C
Ropar: 5.8°C

Dipping jet streams have brought the first spell of spring rains to the north-east of India in the past week. On a pan-India level, seven sister states have experienced above-normal rains in the past week, and the remaining subdivisions have seen below-normal precipitation except parts of Kashmir, Ladakh, and Himachal Pradesh.
The pan-India actual rainfall so far in the period of January 1 to February 25 stands at 25.7 mm against the normal of 37.0 mm; the departure from normal currently stands at -31 per cent, reduced by 5 per cent week over week.

Subdivision-wise winter seasonal rainfall till February 25, 2024:

• Southern Peninsula: Actual 18.6 mm against the average of 14.9 mm, +26 per cent departure from normal.
• East and North East India: Actual 38.8 mm against the average of 42.6 mm, -9 per cent departure from normal.
• North West India: Actual 42.5 mm against the average of 73.3 mm, -42 per cent departure from normal.
• Central India: Actual 8.2 mm against the average of 14.0 mm, -42 per cent departure from normal.

Current synoptic weather features influencing weather in India as on February 26, 2024:

The western disturbance as a trough in middle tropospheric westerlies, with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level, now runs roughly along Long 53°E to the north of Lat 30°N.

Jet stream winds with a maximum speed of up to 135 knots continue to prevail over northeast India at 12.6 km above mean sea level.

The trough in the middle tropospheric westerlies, with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level, now runs roughly along Long 84°E to the north of Lat 25°N.

The other trough now runs roughly along Long 94°E to the north of Lat 25°N, at 3.1 km above mean sea level.

The trough from Chhattisgarh to north Tamil Nadu now runs from Vidarbha to north Kerala across Marathwada and Karnataka at 0.9 km above mean sea level.

A fresh, active western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region on February 29, 2024.

All India weather forecast till March 3, 2024:

The rising temperatures will come to a halt in the next week, unlike last year, when it became exceptionally warm by the end of February, all thanks to the major western disturbance approaching India towards the weekend.

A fresh western disturbance is brewing up near Afghanistan, which is expected to move eastward and impact the western Himalayas starting February 29. In view of the approaching western disturbance for the first time in this season, a cyclonic circulation will induce proper conditions over western Rajasthan; essentially, it will pull a lot of moisture from the Arabian Sea with the support of south-west winds and from the Bay of Bengal through easterly winds.

The combination of the weather phenomena will make the weather system strong while moving in India. As a result, heavy to very heavy snowfall is predicted to occur in Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand from March 1 until March 3. There will also be a major drop in maximum temperature over the Himalayas.

On the plains, moderate to heavy rains and hail storms are in store for March 1st and 2nd.

Widespread rains and hailstorms will occur in Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh between the night of March 1 and the early morning hours of March 3.

The size of the system will be huge, and its tail will be influencing parts of north Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, and even Jharkhand with light to moderate rains on March 2 and 3.

A change in wind direction will result in an increase in minimum and maximum temperature in north and central India from February 27 till March 1, but it will fall significantly on March 2 and 3, amid an increase in precipitation and the onset of cold winds.

A cyclonic circulation has been induced over the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra on February 26. This is generating atmospheric instability in the region and will result in scattered moderate-to-intense thunderstorm and hailstorm activities in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh on February 27 and 28. Another wet event will affect the same region on March 2 and 3, when a western disturbance will influence the region.

Apart from north and central India, most parts of south and north-east India will experience dry weather conditions until March 3; however, there will be no significant rise in temperature this week under the influence of a western disturbance.

On a larger note, below-normal temperatures will be recorded in north and central India, and for the rest of the country, temperatures will remain near normal, and the transition towards summer in southern states will be on pause for the next two weeks.

Citizens in north India might enjoy precipitation events during the first few days of March. On the other hand, it will be a tough time for farmers in the region who are harvesting mustard and wheat that are in the seed generation stage. Crop damage looms large during the upcoming spell of hail storms in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.

El Nino years are known for bringing wet weather in late winter and spring; the same is true for this year as well.

The writer, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.