Weather report: After a wet week, India is expected to have dry, warm days ahead; temperatures to increase in central, eastern parts 

As per the Indian Meteorological Department seasonal criteria, the winter season has come to an end, and the pre-monsoon season has started, which will last till May-end.

It is pre-monsoon on paper, but weather-wise, winter is still penetrating the western Himalayas, and the plains of north India and central India are experiencing a spring-like temperature range.

The first intense western disturbance of the spring season has also influenced the entire western Himalayas, north, west, and central India during March 1–3.

Widespread heavy to very heavy snowfall accumulation has been observed across the mid and upper reaches of Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand.

Various upper reaches in the Kinnaur district reported snowfall between 3 and 4 feet. Kalpa station recorded 101 cm (3.3 feet) of snowfall in a span of 48 hours.

Himachal Pradesh snowfall ending 8:30 AM on March 3:

Khadrala: 62.0 cm
Sangla: 62.5 cm
Gondhla: 45.0 cm
Kukumsheri: 44.8 cm
Keylong: 38.0 cm

Rainfall figures from the state ending 8:30 AM:

Manali: 88.0 mm
Nahan: 83.3 mm
Pacchad: 76.0 mm
Sarahan: 70.0 mm
Kangra: 64.9 mm
Rampur: 64.0 mm

Manali recorded 90.0 mm of rainfall in the span of 24 hours, ending at 8:30 am on March 2. This is the second-highest single-day rainfall ever recorded in the month of March.

Previous records: 112.4 mm on March 22, 1990, and 89.8 mm on March 12, 1988.

It was such a powerful western disturbance that produced the first 150 mm+ accumulation event over foothills and plains in the span of 24 hours:

Uttarakhand:

Koti: 157.0 mm
Chaktata: 118.0 mm
Tiuni: 93.8 mm
Mori: 88.0 mm
Purola: 85.0 mm

Jammu and Kashmir:

Udhampur: 124.8 mm
Banihal: 90.2 mm

Haryana’s Narwana also registered a 100-mm rainfall event and became the first station with triple-digit rainfall accumulation this year.

The current weather system broke many records in terms of precipitation as well as shattered farmers’ expectations of a good rabi crop yield this year.

Many severe weather events unfolded on March 2 and 3 as widespread hailstorms were observed in north Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi NCR, the foothills of Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, resulting in major damage to the standing wheat crop. Strong wind speeds have also created problems for the farmers as wheat has flattened on the ground.

A rare tornado was also spotted from one of the supercell storms near Moga, Punjab, on the evening of March 2. Tornado reporting events are increasing dramatically every year in Punjab and the northern plains. This is a worrying fact, as the Indian population is never prepared for such extreme events, and their occurrences are increasing each season.

In view of the western disturbance, light thunderstorms have also occurred over isolated places in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand on March 2 and 3. This brought a slight relief from the rising temperatures in the region.

Following the trend of the past few weeks, dry and hot weather conditions have continued to prevail across Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha.

The pan-India actual rainfall so far in the period from March 1st to March 3 stands at 8.7 mm against the normal of 2.9 mm; the departure from normal currently stands at +200 per cent.

Subdivision-wise pre-monsoon seasonal rainfall during March 1-3, 2024:

• Southern peninsula: Actual 0.0 mm against the average of 0.8 mm, -99 per cent departure from normal.

• East and north east India: Actual 0.4 mm against the average of 4.4 mm, -92 per cent departure from normal.

• Northwest India: Actual 25.6 mm against the average of 5.4 mm, +375 per cent departure from normal.

• Central India: Actual 2.3 mm against the average of 1.1 mm, +109 per cent departure from normal.

Current synoptic weather features influencing weather in India as of the night of March 3, 2023:

• The western disturbance as a cyclonic circulation over north Pakistan and a neighbourhood between 3.1 km and 12.6 km above mean sea level persists. The trough from this cyclonic circulation to the Northeast Arabian Sea between 3.1 and 12.6 km above mean sea level also persists.

• The induced low-pressure area over west Punjab and the neighbourhood have become less marked. However, the associated cyclonic circulation over west Punjab and the surrounding neighbourhood, extending up to 1.5 km above mean sea level, persists.

• The trough is westerly, roughly along Long. 92°E to the north of Lat. 25°N, at 3.1 km above mean sea level.

• The trough from southwest Madhya Pradesh to north interior Karnataka at 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

• A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region from the night of March 5, 2024.

All India weather forecast till March 10, 2024:

The western disturbance is moving away after a prolonged spell of snowfall over the western Himalayas accumulated in feet. Mountains are snowcapped, and north-west winds would start blowing towards plains from the hilly states.

Forecast for a rare coldwave in March

Clear weather conditions combined with icy cold north-west winds are going to bring down night temperatures across the hill stations as well as in the plains of north and central India during the next three nights.

The minimum temperature can fall as low as -20°C in the upper reaches; in Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, it will range from 3 to 7°C; in Delhi NCR, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh, it will be in the range of 6 to 10°C.

The minimum temperature anomaly will be 5 to 9°C below normal for this time of year; hence, it is classified as a cold wave, which is not something we witness each year. Some all-time records for minimum temperature might break on March 5 and 6.

Cold morning across north India as Shimla dipped to subzero for the first time in the month of March after 2017, here is the minimum temperature recorded in stations in north India on March 4:

Padum: -17.9°C
Gulmarg: -12.0°C
Keylong: -10.9°C
Sonamarg: -9.5°C
Bharmour: -2.3°C
Mukteshwar: -0.5°C
Shimla: -0.1°C
Hisar: 5.2°C
Amritsar: 6.2°C
Jaisalmer: 6.5°C
Jammu: 6.7°C

Weather models hint for another feeble western disturbance to impact hills on March 6 and 7. This will bring limited events of light snowfall over Kashmir, Ladakh, and Himachal Pradesh; one or two places in Punjab, Rajasthan, and Haryana might observe drizzles and overcast conditions; and the maximum temperature will stay in the pleasant range of under 27°C at most places this week.

Summers to intensify in south India

Following the trends of the past week, dry weather conditions will continue to prevail across Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Goa, with no precipitation-inducing weather system to impact this week as well. Maximum temperatures are going to rise by 1-3°C from current levels and settle around 35 to 38°C in these states.

From March 8 to 10, day temperatures will increase across Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh to the range of 33 to 37°C. This will turn out to be a spring break for these states, and days will start getting warmer.

The upcoming week until March 10 will be significantly dry across the country, as no significant western disturbance or pre-monsoon rains are forecasted to occur.

The writer, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.