How Wang Yi's India-Afghanistan-Pakistan tour highlights persistent Delhi-Beijing divide

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent trip to India, Afghanistan and Pakistan needs to be closely analysed by the Indian strategic community. This is because it gives, inter alia, insights into China’s general approaches to South Asia, its, as yet, unsuccessful attempt to improve ties between Kabul and Islamabad and its continuing ‘iron brother’ bond with Pakistan. Besides, Wang Yi’s comment on the position of the Pakistan army in that country’s national life is most striking, for it is corrosive of its political and constitutional process even though it may be accurate.

Significantly, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is preparing to go to China to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Wang Yi did not show any sensitivity to India’s vision of, or, by far, its primary position in South Asia. In a media briefing in Islamabad, a Chinese journalist mentioned that Pakistan was the final stop of his three-country tour. In response, Wang Yi said that it was indeed the ‘final stop and most important stop’ of his three-country tour.

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Notably, the Chinese Foreign Ministry did not put these words of Wang Yi on its website. The Foreign Ministry’s account covers the rest of his answer to the journalist. That began with these words: “South Asian countries have a long history, splendid civilisation, large population, and huge development potential.” From here Wang Yi went on to sermonise the three countries. He noted, “India, Afghanistan and Pakistan have different national conditions; they all recognise that development is the top priority and the broadest consensus among them, as well as among all countries in the region. A peaceful, stable and prosperous South Asia serves the common interests of all parties and meets the aspirations of the people of all countries.”

India’s foreign and strategic policy planners cannot have any illusions that China is willing to accept what External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar clearly told Wang Yi when he was in Delhi: a multipolar world means a multipolar Asia. Jaishankar’s words imply that India is not willing to give primacy of place to or allow China to intrude in the affairs of South Asia at India’s cost. However, it has already begun to do the latter in a concerted manner by beginning a process of trilateral meetings which involve China and Pakistan and third countries. It has established a China-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral at the foreign minister level, plus an initial meeting at the official level has occurred between China, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

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More than this, China has the aim of creating an organisation of South Asian countries which would include it. No doubt it wishes to lead such an organisation. As Wang Yi said in Pakistan, “China and South Asian countries are natural partners, with broad space for cooperation. Despite ups and downs, China-India relations have a long history and increasingly demonstrate a clear historical logic. The China-Pakistan friendship has withstood the test of time, become as strong as steel, and gained stronger internal impetus. The relationships between China and Pakistan, China and India, as well as China and other neighbouring countries, are not directed against any third party and are not subject to any third-party influence.”

Even as India faces grave difficulties in its ties with the US at present, it has to be very wary as it proceeds with resetting its ties with China. It has to realise that its issues with China are not confined to the border alone or the northern neighbour’s ties with Pakistan, even though it has to give surpassing attention to these two areas of its differences with China; they directly impact India’s security. That was vividly witnessed during Operation Sindoor.

China is challenging the US and wants to replace it to become the world’s pre-eminent country. In its calculus India, however big it may be or whatever its potential may be, is just another Asian state to be managed. Wang Yi’s words clearly indicate that it is not willing to treat India as an equal and accord it the respect it deserves.

India has the potential and has demonstrated its will not to allow China to achieve its aims of degrading its position in South Asia and the region. This is because China is also not getting all that it wants with some South Asian countries even though it has gone the extra mile with them. Some of them want India to be their ‘hedge’ against China. Afghanistan, even under the Taliban, is an example.

Wang Yi’s visit to Kabul was to take part in the sixth round of the China-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral. No joint statement came out after the trilateral meeting on August 20, as it had after the format’s last meeting in China. The sticking point obviously was Afghanistan’s refusal to rein in the Tehreek-e-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochi militants. Pakistan accuses Kabul of allowing them to operate from its territory to launch attacks in Pakistan. On its part, China is concerned about the Afghan Taliban giving sanctuary to some Uighur groups. The Balochi groups also target Chinese-aided projects in Balochistan.

On their part, both China and Pakistan have made concessions to Kabul. They have appointed ambassadors to head their embassies in Kabul. Neither country has gone as far as the Russians have gone in diplomatically recognising the Taliban regime, but they have, in diplomatic terms, gone far enough. Besides, both countries have offered Kabul economic and commercial incentives and have also indicated that they would assist in connectivity issues.

Reports indicate that Wang Yi bilaterally met his Afghan counterpart, Amir Khan Mutaqqi, Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and Prime Minister Mullah Hasan Akhund. No readouts of these meetings have been given by either country. Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar also had a bilateral meeting with Mutaqqi.

The Pakistan Foreign Ministry statement of the meeting notes, “Deputy Prime Minister/Foreign Minister acknowledged the encouraging progress in political and commercial ties, while expressing progress in the security domain, especially in counter-terrorism, continues to lag behind. He highlighted a recent surge in terrorist attacks inside Pakistan perpetrated by groups operating from Afghan soil, urging the Afghan authorities to take concrete and verifiable measures against entities such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA)/Majeed Brigade.” It is obvious that Kabul is unwilling to give up its TTP card. These Islamabad-Kabul differences give opportunities to India, but its diplomacy has to be nimble to grab them.

Now, to Wang Yi shoring up the Pakistani army’s position in that country, nothing can illustrate it better than the Chinese readout of Wang Yi’s meeting with Field Marshal Asim Munir. Hence, a substantial portion of it deserves to be quoted. It is this: “Wang Yi noted that the Pakistani army serves as the ballast of national stability and a staunch defender of China-Pakistan friendship and cooperation. The Pakistani military has always supported both sides in earnestly implementing the important common understandings reached by the leaders of the two countries, deepening strategic mutual trust at a higher level, and jointly building an upgraded Version 2.0 of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with high quality, making positive contributions to accelerating the building of a closer China-Pakistan community with a shared future in the new era.”

Clearly, Asim Munir is Beijing’s current favourite, and the Pakistan army is its constant friend. While all visiting foreign ministers meet the Pakistani chief, no one has ever publicly called the army “the ballast of national stability”. Its implications for India are obvious. The Pakistan army will get all weapons and intelligence support from China—perhaps more than it has in the past.

The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.