 "Putin’s North Korea visit making China uneasy")
For over two years, the West has attempted to isolate Russia economically and diplomatically in response to its invasion of Ukraine. One aspect of this effort has been to limit Russian President Vladimir Putin’s international manoeuvrability. In this context, Putin’s recent visits to North Korea and Vietnam were an attempt to open new avenues of support. The outcomes, however, are indicative of a paradigm shift in Southeast Asia, which are evidently generating unease across the West and in China.
This is particularly the case with the visit to North Korea, where Putin and Kim Jong Un signed a new comprehensive strategic partnership treaty. No specific details have been announced, although the treaty is confirmed to supersede previous treaties signed in 1961, 2000, and 2001. During the trip, Putin was accompanied by Defence Minister Andrei Belousov and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Following his meeting with Kim, the Russian leader said that their ties were now at a “new level.” Kim, meanwhile, termed the visit a “watershed moment.” Putin argued that the new agreement between the two sides was defensive in nature and included a promise of “mutual assistance”, if either side were attacked. This is reminiscent of the two countries’ 1961 Cold War-era mutual defence agreement, signalling Kim now has an official pact with a powerful ally, who happens to be the West’s foremost adversary, and a permanent member of the UN Security Council. All of this is likely to further fuel Western concerns about Pyongyang providing arms to Russia for its war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian technical expertise for its weapons program. Both countries have denied that such arms sales have taken place.
Furthermore, during the visit, Putin threatened to arm North Korea if the West continued to arm Ukraine. “Those who supply these weapons believe that they are not at war with us. I said, including in Pyongyang, that we then reserve the right to supply weapons to other regions of the world,” Putin told reporters at the end of his trip to Vietnam. The Western reaction to the visit and specifically Putin’s comments was one of concern, with the US State Department stating that Russian supplies of weapons could “destabilise the Korean Peninsula”.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsUS allies Japan and South Korea also expressed alarm. Seoul condemned the Moscow-Pyongyang pact. First Vice Minister Kim Hong-kyun relayed South Korea’s position of wanting Moscow to “immediately halt military cooperation” with Pyongyang. The Russian ambassador was summoned and told that “any cooperation that could directly or indirectly help reinforce the North Korean military power would be a violation of UN Security Council resolutions.
China’s official position on the agreement, meanwhile, has been one of deliberate indifference. The Foreign Ministry stated the meeting was one of “bilateral engagement between Russia and the DPRK.” This strategic silence, however, masks a palpable unease. The Chinese leadership likely watched the visit unfold somewhat warily, given that the Putin-Kim deal has the potential to disrupt the established dynamic in Southeast Asia.
For instance, Kuo Yu-jen, a professor of China and Asia-Pacific studies at National Sun Yat-sen University in Taiwan has argued that “Putin’s economic dependence on China has deepened because the war in Ukraine has become a war of attrition. So, he must play the North Korea card to contain China, which is equivalent to saying that Russia and China are mutually hostage. Likewise, Deng Yuwen, a political commentator and researcher at the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, believes that Putin’s visit to Pyongyang sent a signal to Beijing that Moscow has other allies too. Other Chinese scholars have expressed serious concerns that deepening Russia-North Korea ties could destabilise Northeast Asia, while fuelling a stronger Cold War narrative, pushing other regional actors closer to the US. Such an outcome can lend greater bargaining power for the North Korean regime, undermining Beijing’s influence, while exacerbating tensions.
Over the past few years, the strategic convergences between China and Russia have deepened. This, however, does not imply the absence of sources of competition and friction between the two sides. There are concerns around asymmetric dependence, encroachment over each other’s conventional spheres of influence, and the economic and strategic impact of one’s actions on the other. Putin’s pact with Kim should be viewed within this context.
Manoj Kewalramani is the Chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Studies Programme at the Takshashila Institution. Aadit Pareek is a student of Politics and Economics at UCLA. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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