Vantage | Is Myanmar junta on the verge of collapse?

In Myanmar, the military regime is on the backfoot. Fighting has been ongoing for more than a month now. Three rebel groups had joined forces to form the ‘brotherhood alliance’ that is now leading the offensive against the military junta. They started the rebellion as localised fighting in the north-eastern state of Shan, but now it has spread to almost every region of Myanmar. The brotherhood alliance has met with success, and this has encouraged others. Other rebel groups have joined the fight against the junta. The Myanmar army is losing ground rapidly. Reports say more than 200 junta bases have been overrun. A large number of weapons have been looted. Morale in Myanmar’s army is low. Troops are surrendering in waves. Some have even defected and joined the rebel groups. And many soldiers continue to seek refuge in India.

Amidst all these developments, the top military generals of Myanmar are playing the blame game. They say the radical ethnic youth are the troublemakers; they’re the ones who broke the ceasefire, and they’re disturbing the country’s harmony. Moreover, the junta says that foreigners are working for rebel groups, apparently as drone experts, i.e., the army says the rebels have hired foreign drone experts. And the most recent blame is on banking staff, as the generals say that bankers are giving state funds to rebels. But questions arise: Why has the Myanmar army failed to stop this? Junta is now calling on ‘deserters to return to the barracks’. Announcements have been made for soldiers who have deserted or gone absent without leave. They’ve all been asked to return to their barracks. Even veterans are being recalled; if they don’t turn up, they’ll lose their pension, as the junta has threatened to suspend it. All of these sound like desperate measures. For the first time since their coup, the junta is facing an existential threat. They have been fighting rebel forces for decades and they have almost always been successful, but this time it looks tough. The junta has their backs against the wall. Though they are not done yet: They have launched a massive fightback against the rebels.

On Dec 1, two jet fighters dropped cluster bombs at Namkham Town, Northern Shan State in #Myanmar. The International community must act to hold the military junta to account for committing crimes against the people of Myanmar. #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar pic.twitter.com/wkkU0qfyA8

— Spokesperson, NUG President Office (@NUGPressSPOX) December 2, 2023

There are reports of fighter jets dropping cluster munition, and an increase in the number of bombings. The military junta is pushing back hard and the rebels know this. “The military can’t defeat us on the ground. So, they have used many air strikes and heavy weapons to take control of Loikaw. The military has lost many soldiers and they are weak right now. We are only afraid of their air strikes,” said Lin Lin, the spokesperson of Loikaw local PDF. The airstrikes have slowed down the rebels but they haven’t stalled the fighting. Townships are still being taken over by them. In the northern Sagaing state, there is already a change in leadership, the junta has been replaced in a town called Kawlin. One of the largest townships in the state. Rebel groups have installed civilian leadership there. Kawlin has become the first district-level town to return to civilian rule. But this has come at a cost. The fighting has left most of the towns deserted. “Loikaw residents have fled from the township and only 3 or 4 out of 14 town quarters still have some civilians there. And we can say 70 per cent of Loikaw’s population are displaced right now,” said spokesperson, Loikaw local PDF. Hundreds of thousands have been displaced, and the fighting seems to be nowhere near an end. Rebel groups are confident while Myanmar’s military is struggling to fight on multiple fronts. The junta’s top general blames ethnic groups for this. He is calling on the rebels to solve their problems politically. But he made no mention of discontent against the military regime. The situation is precarious. Myanmar faces an uncertain future, and its neighbours are being drawn into the chaos. India has already opened its doors to refugees; Thailand too has taken in hundreds. China, on the other hand, wants nothing to do with this mess. They carried out a short live-fire military exercise near the border with Myanmar. And now they have closed their doors. The international community remains silent on this, while caught in the middle are civilians who continue to suffer. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._