Vantage: How India can undo the setback in Maldives

The Maldives has elected a new president - Mohamed Muizzu. He defeated the sitting president Ibrahim Solih. That’s bad news for India because Muizzu was a pro-China candidate and now, he is a pro-China president-elect. The election The election results were announced this weekend. It was the second round between Solih and Muizzu. In the first round on 9 September, neither candidate crossed 50 per cent but this time, Muizzu did. He got 54 per cent of the votes and the incumbent Solih got 46 per cent. As the result came in, Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Muizzu, one of the first leaders to do so. He said: “India remains committed to strengthening the time-tested India-Maldives bilateral relationship and enhancing our overall cooperation in the Indian Ocean region”.

Why Maldives matters It’s an archipelago in the Indian Ocean (meaning it’s a chain of islands) and the Indian Ocean is the nerve centre of global trade. Around 80% of oil is shipped via this ocean and the Maldives is like a toll gate on this route. Historically, it’s been part of India’s sphere of influence but now, China wants in. Beijing has been trying to reduce Indian influence in the Indian Ocean. They already have key assets in Sri Lanka and the Maldives could be next. The big question is… India and President Solih together kept China at bay, but will the new president do the same? Here’s why the question. Muizzu belongs to the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM). His mentor is former president Abdullah Yameen. Yameen was supposed to run for president but, he was disqualified - convicted and jailed for corruption. That’s how Muizzu got the job. Now, the PPM isn’t just pro-China, it’s also anti-India. The same party came up with the ‘India out’ campaign and seeks to end Indian influence in the Maldives. President Solih was the opposite. He openly declared that his policy was ‘India first’. So, you had two very different positions - one was ‘India first’ and the other was ‘India out’ - and the latter won. Mohamed Muizzu has been a minister in the past. During that stint, he signed multiple deals with China. One was worth 200 million dollars to connect the capital to the main airport. He also met Chinese communist party officials last year. He said his party’s comeback would strengthen relations between China and the Maldives. What’s the answer? Does that mean he will abandon India? New Delhi has given three billion dollars to the Maldives. That’s loans plus aid. There are schools being built, bridges, stadiums, hospitals, and all kinds of projects. So, divorcing India isn’t an option, the footprint is simply too big. But here’s what Muizzu and company can do - make China’s footprint bigger. Beijing wants a free trade agreement with the Maldives. Solih had refused to play ball. His successor may not. Same with Chinese investments. Solih preferred Indian companies and military equipment. Chances are, his successor won’t. What happens next? So, there is no point denying the reality. This is a strategic setback for India. But is it also the end of the road? It’s too early to say. What happens next depends on a number of factors. For instance, is Mohamed Muizzu his own man or will he be controlled by Abdullah Yameen? The early signs are not good. After winning the election, Muizzu spoke to Ibrahim Solih. He got Yameen released from jail. He is now under house arrest. This is a big worry for New Delhi because for Yameen, taking on India isn’t just about policy, it somehow seems personal. Another factor is India’s attitude. Do we pull back from the Maldives or do we keep engaging irrespective of Muizzu’s attitude? PM Modi’s message on Sunday was a positive sign. There was no hesitation or delay - he was one of the first to congratulate Muizzu. The key is to build on that. No, there won’t be the same enthusiasm and yes, the new president will be closer to China but not engaging could make things worse. It would give Beijing a free pass. What should India do? So, India needs to dig deep. It needs to pull out cards that China cannot, like historical relations, cultural exchange, the people-to-people relations. All of this could give India a fighting chance. Also, this election is a lesson for Indian policy-makers - don’t take neighbours for granted. You can’t bank on just one political party. You need multipartisan support. If not, this is the risk. These are very important relationships for India. As the government says - it’s ‘neighbourhood first’ but for that, you need broad support - from ordinary people, from the opposition and of course, the ruling party. Clearly, India does not have that in the Maldives. The new president Muizzu takes charge only in November but his actions until then should give us an idea about India’s future - whether it’s back a few steps, or back to square one.