Vantage | 1.2 billion climate refugees by 2050: Time for world to recognise them, increase funding

Have you heard about climate refugees? You will in the next few years. The changing climate is making some countries unlivable. The oceans are rising. Cyclones are being supercharged. Rainfall is either too much or too little. So what do people do? They flee.

We know that conflicts create refugees. Well, climate change is doing the same. Many countries are preparing for this eventuality, like Australia and Tuvalu. They have signed a new bilateral treaty. It says Australia will offer refuge to Tuvalu citizens affected by climate change. In other words, Canberra will take in climate refugees. How many?

Up to 280 visas will be issued every year. These people can live, work, and study in Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called it a ground-breaking treaty. The Tuvalu PM called it a beacon of hope.

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“This partnership stands as a beacon of hope, signifying not just a milestone but a giant leap forward in our joint mission to ensure regional stability, sustainability, and prosperity,” said Kausea Natano, Tuvalu Prime Minister.

It’s a big deal for Tuvalu. We are talking about a low-lying country. Its average height is three metres above sea level. That’s just under 10 feet. So if ocean levels rise, Tuvalu is at major risk. Its islands could sink below the sea, and the government knows this.

Last year, they decided to create a digital replica of the country, a Tuvalu in the metaverse. The idea was to conserve the country’s history and culture. Even if the land disappears, the memory would remain. This tells you how serious this problem is. Which is why Australia’s offer is so appealing. Tuvalu is home to more than 11 thousand people. Australia is taking in 280 per year. That’s around 2.5 per cent of their population.

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Of course, there is politics too. Tuvalu is one of the handful of countries that still recognise Taiwan. They don’t have relations with Beijing. So Canberra is trying to lock in their support.

But let’s keep the politics out. Let’s look at the problem of climate refugees. How big is it?

One study says we could have 1.2 billion climate refugees by 2050. Which means every year around 21 million people are being displaced by floods, storms, droughts, wildfires, etc.

In 2019, India had the most climate refugees—more than five million people. The Philippines had four million, as did Bangladesh and China. Then came America, with around one million.

What exactly is driving these people out? Rising sea level is a major problem. About 30 years ago, around 160 million people were at risk in coastal areas. And now? It is 260 million people. 90 per cent of them live in poor and developing nations. They don’t have the money to relocate or to invest in new technology. Take Bangladesh, for example; by 2050, 17 per cent of the country could be submerged. And along with it, the homes of 20 million people.

So where do they go? They become climate refugees, and for the record, Bangladesh makes up just 0.3 per cent of global emissions. Yet they face more consequences.

Same in Africa; last year, around seven million Africans were internally displaced. Again, the reason was climate. By 2050, half of all climate refugees could be Africans. And, what is Africa’s share in emissions? Just four per cent.

So the situation is pretty bad. The countries that triggered climate change are not as affected. It’s the developing nations that are suffering. So what’s the solution?

Well, Australia’s idea is an interesting one. To take in people and give them opportunities, but not every country will be willing.

So do the next best thing. If you can’t open your borders, open your wallet. Fund climate action programmes in affected nations. Also, cut down on your own emissions. It may not solve the problem, but it’s a good start.

Plus, we have to define who a climate refugee is; right now, the UN has no definition. Even the Refugee Convention of 1951 does not include climate change. And you can’t help what you can’t define. It won’t be easy to create consensus on this issue. But then again, nothing about climate action has been easy so far.

Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._