US Sutra | Trump and Musk: Bromance stranger than Bollywood

Donald J Trump’s “big beautiful” tax bill has caused an ugly spat between America’s two most powerful men. One is the president of the United States, the other the world’s richest man. They are certainly the world’s most in your face odd couple, their relationship seemingly stranger than Bollywood. It started as “Ye dosti hum nahin todenge”, when Musk threw in his lot.

And I mean that literally. Musk’s influence and impact were huge, both in money power and social media reach. Musk’s backing Trump, the presidential candidate much of America’s political elite hated, also helped swing the liberal Silicon Valley tech wealthy power brokers away from the Democrats. Now, apparently, he is singing a different tune: “Dost dost na raha, pyar pyar na raha.”

But is there more than what meets the eye behind the rumpus?

Of course. Let us, first of all, discount the publicity value of their spat. Both men love the limelight, with relish that is compulsive. Both are, arguably, self-obsessed megalomaniacs, with a sense of their own unique purpose and mission. Neither backs off from a fight, nor hesitates to speak his mind publicly. Shoot your mouth first, think later seems to be the motto of both.

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Therefore, their public and publicised spat could well be orchestrated, a ruse, whether intentional or otherwise, to confuse both friends in Washington and enemies overseas. Both are disruptors and troubleshooters. Therefore, chaos is their element. They are not afraid to rock the boat. Both thrive on uncertainty and show a peculiar kind of reckless bravado. Both, in other words, are inveterate risktakers.

Now to their clash of interests. Trump is a politician, who needs to resort to populism and deception when the occasion demands it. He is also, first and foremost a businessman, looking to drive good deals, which benefit not only his country, but himself and his family. In the past, he has not hesitated to turn on his ardent supporters, discarding them after they have outlived their utility.

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Musk, on the other hand, has positioned himself as a visionary who wants to save the planet using technology in the service of humankind. But the truth is that he too is a businessman and, more recently, somewhat of a politician. His business interests are undoubtedly entwined with the US government. His companies, notably Space X, has $22 billion in government contracts.

Let us not forget that when NASA was unable to save the stranded astronauts, including Sunita Williams, Trump rescued them with his rockets and space crafts. What is more, US defence depends heavily on Musk’s technological edge and his Starlink communication systems. Musk is also leading the innovation in driverless cars and robotics, for both of which he needs federal regulatory approvals.

Trump, though he promised to reduce the ballooning US debt, has severe political compulsions and limitations. His Make America Great Again (MAGA) campaign targeted blue collar and working-class white Americans. He cannot afford to antagonise them by raising taxes or lowering government spending. When in trouble what does the US government do? Not “drill baby drill” as Trump sloganeered, but “print baby print,” which both Democrats and Republicans practiced before him. That is, turning on the dollar printing machine as a way out of the US financial crisis. Or kicking the fiscal can down the road.

US debt servicing is now one of the largest expenses in their budget, next only to social security and health. It has already overtaken defence. This is mind boggling: the US government spends more on interest payments, over $1 trillion, than the entire GDP of all but twenty countries.

Trump is in a Catch-22. Forget about paying back the debt, the current deficit over 6 per cent will only add to it. The only way to reduce both the deficit and the piled-up debt is cut expenditure or raise revenue. To do the latter, taxes have to raised, which would be highly unpopular. The former requires reducing social welfare and other government programmes, which would be equally difficult.

Musk, with his DOGE hatchet, could reduce only a fraction of government spending. Now he is totally outraged that Trump is increasing, rather than decreasing, governing spending. Hold on. That is not all. Trump is also promising to reduce taxes. This seems like a recipe for sure disaster. Moreover, it is nothing short of reneging on campaign promises in addition to reportedly personal assurances.

Those who relish conspiracy theories will say that both Trump and Musk are gaming the US tussle for power with China. If Trump cozies up to China in exchange for rare earth minerals, his latest obsession, Musk may also tilt likewise because China remains one of his biggest markets. What this means is that there will be a lot of mediation and back-and-forth between these two powerful men so that their stand-off does not spin out of control.

Ironically, Musk’s moving away from Trump may actually help Tesla. Shareholders were worried that his involvement with the government was at the expense of his companies. As one of his staunch supporters quipped, his board actually wants him to focus “back to the future” pivoting away from the nitty-gritty of present politics.

Both men, not surprisingly, have already dialed back a bit from their worst statements and harshest positions. If Trump wants to power ahead with his radical reforms and continue on his self-anointed course to being the greatest president America has known, he can hardly afford to get bogged down in a petty personality fight with one of his greatest allies and supporters. Musk, too, needs to course correct to return to his first love and passion, tech innovation and colonisation of outer space.

Wall Street moguls and the world financial markets, too, will exert their influence if not good offices. Neither America nor the world can afford much more uncertainty. And both men know it.

The writer is an author, columnist, and former Director, Indian Institute of Advanced Study. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.