 "US presidential election: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris and stakes for India")
As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, India closely watches how the candidates’ policies might impact its diplomatic and economic future. India mainly focuses on potential changes in American financial policies and foreign direct investment. The election outcome could significantly shape India’s economic growth and strategic ties with the United States. The two nations have trade in goods and services topping $191 billion in 2022.
India has had a complicated yet steadily improving relationship with the US. From Bill Clinton’s visit to India in 2000, which marked a turning point, to the current Biden administration, US presidents have steadily deepened ties with India. This bipartisan support has transformed the US into one of India’s most trusted strategic partners, encompassing trade, defence, technology, and cultural exchanges.
For instance, in the defence sector, since 2000, India and the US have deepened their defence ties by signing four key defence agreements: General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) in 2002, Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016, Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018, and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) in 2020. These agreements enhance military cooperation, logistical support, and the exchange of critical geospatial data. But with the 2024 election, India finds itself at a crossroads, unsure of whether the next occupant of the White House will be a continuation of past policies or a departure into uncharted territory.
On one side, we have Donald Trump, a man who left an indelible mark on US-India relations during his presidency. Despite his unpredictable style, Trump’s policies on immigration and trade, and, most notably, his hard stance on China, aligned closely with India’s strategic interests. His return to the political stage is being watched with anticipation and caution in New Delhi.
Since both Trump and Modi have a conservative outlook on their political ideology, the relations can be seen as natural from a political perspective. Trump’s admiration for Prime Minister Narendra Modi was evident during his time in office, and the personal rapport they shared led to a stronger strategic partnership between the two nations.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsHowever, Trump’s mercurial nature and protectionist tendencies could also bring uncertainty, particularly in trade areas where his ‘America First’ or ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) policy might clash with India’s economic interests.
On the other hand, Kamala Harris, now stepping into the spotlight as the Democratic candidate following President Joe Biden’s decision not to seek re-election, presents a different set of considerations. With her half-Indian heritage, Harris is often viewed with a sense of cautious optimism in India. However, her track record suggests that her connection to India may be more symbolic than substantive. While her advocacy for a merit-based immigration system resonates well with many in India, her broader foreign policy stance remains somewhat nebulous.
As Biden’s Vice President, Harris has been involved in several critical areas of interest to India, including technology partnerships and immigration reform. Yet, her commitment to NATO and the defence of Ukraine may pose challenges for India, particularly given its historical ties with Russia. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has forced India to walk a tightrope between its long-standing relationship with Russia and its strategic partnership with the United States. India’s careful balancing act could become even more precarious depending on how the next administration approaches this issue.
Amidst this backdrop, it is crucial to consider the perspective of Ashley J Tellis in his recent Foreign Affairs article, ‘America’s Bad Bet on India’. Tellis, a former US policymaker and a long-time observer of US-India relations, argues that Washington may have overestimated the strategic value of its relationship with India. He suggests that India, driven by its national interests, might not align as closely with the US as some American strategists hope. Tellis’s critique underscores the complex and sometimes contradictory nature of the U.S.-India partnership, reminding both sides that mutual interests, rather than mere sentiment or shared democratic values, will ultimately determine the strength and direction of their relationship.
This nuanced view is essential as India evaluates the potential impact of the 2024 US presidential election. While Trump’s transactional approach may lead to short-term gains, particularly in defence and counterterrorism, it could also strain the relationship if economic pressures or unilateral demands become too onerous.
On the other hand, Harris might bring a more predictable but less dynamic partnership, focusing on multilateralism and collective security. This could increase pressure on India regarding its stance on Russia and human rights issues. There’s no denying that India’s growing strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific region will ensure that it remains a crucial partner for the US, regardless of who wins the election. Both Trump and Harris will likely view India as a critical counterweight to China’s regional ambitions. However, the nuances in their approaches could significantly impact the nature of this partnership.
While potentially beneficial in areas like defence cooperation, Trump’s transactional style could also lead to friction if his demands on trade or other issues are perceived as too one-sided. Harris, on the other hand, may bring a more collaborative approach, but one that could also include a greater emphasis on human rights and democratic values—issues that have, at times, caused tension in US-India relations.
As the campaign progresses, Indian policymakers, scholars, and political leadership must carefully watch what the candidates say or not say about India. Speeches are not just about garnering votes; they are windows into the priorities and philosophies of those who seek to lead. For India, the 2024 US presidential election is not just a distant political event but a crucial juncture that will shape the future of US-India relations in an increasingly volatile world. The choices made by American voters will reverberate far beyond their borders, and India must be prepared to navigate the opportunities and challenges that will come with either a Trump or Harris presidency.
Whether managing the unpredictability of a second Trump term or navigating the potential shifts in policy under a Harris administration, India’s strategic interests will require careful and astute diplomacy. As the US presidential race heats up, India will be watching closely, acutely aware that the outcome will have profound implications for its future.
The author is a PhD candidate at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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