US presidential election and decline of American Superpower

It was a debate to cry for. President Biden and former President Trump quite literally slugged it out in the presidential debate that kicks off the ‘season’. Biden is widely seen as coming off the worst, stuttering and losing the thread on many occasions, even as his son is due for sentencing in a gun case. Against that is the fact that Trump is the only President to be convicted of a felony, faces 57 more cases against him, and was the man who brought down America’s famed credentials as a democracy to its knees with an insurrection. It was certainly hard to choose when the whole thing seemed like a reality show shorn of a modicum of sense rather than a debate within the (still) most powerful country on earth.

That’s serious for everyone. Inside the country, no one seems interested. Reuters noted it as 30 per cent lower than the 73 million people who watched the candidates’ first face-off in 2020 and among the three lowest-rated first presidential debates since 1976.

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A very low debate and worse to follow

The lows were constant. Biden accused Trump of having sex with a porn star, while Trump accused the former of not just disliking the military but also being disliked by them. Those are extremely serious allegations. Abortion laws, which the ‘bible belt’ of Republicans have overturned with strong restrictions, was a ‘hot’ topic of little interest to the rest of the world, as was the fact that Trump lied 30 times, likely to excite anyone, given that even Asian countries accustomed to dodgy politics have apprehensions about a president who reverses policy as fast as he lies about it. Remember that this was the President who, despite his ‘dear friend’ Modi, three times offered to mediate between India and Pakistan?

But there’s much worse. Trump doesn’t even recognise the highly disastrous climate crisis (in common with much of US industry). During the debate, he justified pulling out of the Paris Accords since India, China, and Russia did a ‘rip off’, while the US would have paid a trillion (it never did nor is it likely to).

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This is deadly serious, but both candidates dodged the climate question. Biden did bring the US back into the Paris Accords, but a pledge made in 2021 of $11.4 billion annually has yet to materialise. In mid March, Congress passed just $1 billion for climate, a terrible message to the rest of the world. If Trump comes to power, even this meagre effort will stop. Don’t forget also that wealthy nations, who created the climate crisis with their patterns of development, reap billions of dollars in expensive ‘climate’ loans or strings attached. Separately, their climate-tech industries are finding a hot market. So Trump may just change his mind as the dollars come rolling in.

Foreign policy

The debate on foreign policy was even more daunting. The US is in trouble when its president says, “The only thing I’ve denied Israel was 2,000-pound bombs. They don’t work very well in populated areas. They kill a lot of innocent people.” This is after some 37,000 deaths and 86,000 injuries. And then the other presidential contender says, “Just let them (Israel) go and finish the job." Somewhere, a moral compass has been irretrievably lost. The position is worse on Ukraine, though Trump is likely to get a lot of people nodding when he says it was a war that never should have started. And that “every time that Zelenskyy comes to this country, he walks away with $60 billion. He’s the greatest salesman ever”. Americans are tired of the war. And believe Trump when he says he’ll end the war even as president-elect. That’s what everyone is hoping, including much of Europe, which is battling low economic growth and a frightening swing to right-wing forces.

Under Biden, America thrives on war

The state of the US economy is of interest to everyone, given that it is, like China, an engine for global growth. Trump’s claim of having led ‘the greatest economy’ has been fact-checked as hollow (the growth rate was 2.67 per cent, or 1.45 per cent if the Covid effect is considered), lower than the 4 per cent average during the Clinton presidency.

Under Biden, the economy has avoided recession and is slowly picking up. One way it has done that is by ratcheting up the US arms industry. As the Chicago Policy Review notes, in December alone, President Biden approved two of the largest arms sales to Israel, one worth $106 million and another worth $147.5 million.

Then there’s the rotating bonanza, which is Ukraine. In one route, Biden used the ‘Presidential Drawdown Authority’ (PDA) 47 times to move weapons from existing inventories (ie, old weapons) to Ukraine. That was worth some $47 billion. Then, the regular Foreign Military Financing route likely to reach $64 billion by 2024. Then, in a triple whammy, the military has to replace the equipment it gave or sold in all these wars. That cost $25 billion for ‘replenishment’ last year. Biden was castigated (rightly) by Trump for the disastrous Afghanistan pullout, but the army and defence industry have never had it so good. What’s more, under Biden, NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) members have had to raise their own defence budgets, with Washington gaining. Newsweek reports that the US accounted for 55 per cent of European arms imports (2019-23), up from 35 per cent from 2014-18. Germany and France provided just 6.4 per cent and 4.6 per cent, respectively. No doubts as to who’s ‘winning’ the Ukraine war. And don’t forget that US gas exports to Europe is also climbing, as Russia gets pushed out. War has always been good economics for America.

The China question

Then there’s the question of who’s more tough on China. To prove his credentials, Biden slapped new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, advanced batteries, solar cells, steel, aluminium and medical equipment. But this is carefully structured so as not to push inflation at home, with some tariffs not taking effect till 2026. The immediate ones are on EV’s where Beijing has yet to have a market presence. In short, its no big deal. What’s important is that under both Presidents, trade with China has actually gone up significantly.

Official figures show US goods exports at $154.0 billion, were up 39 per cent from 2012. Goods imports at $536.3 billion in 2022, up 26 per cent from 2012. US exports to China account for 7.5 per cent of overall US exports in 2022. The US goods trade deficit with China was $382.3 billion in 2022, a 8.3 per cent increase ($29.4 billion) over 2021. But Biden recently held talks with President Xi in a clear message that he doesn’t want to go over the top, even as he dangerously veers to the edge on a possible war with Russia. Meanwhile, China is moving to gold with reserves doubling to 4.3 per cent last year from less than 2 per cent in 2015 even as its US bond holding fell to about 30 per cent from 44 per cent of total reserves. A trade war is looming, whether Biden or Trump comes in. Both will also have to deal with an imminent de-dollarisation of the economy, as International Monetary Fund notes that of total global FX reserves of $12.33 trillion (March 2024), the dollar’s share of currency holdings was 58.41 per cent, the lowest on record. The options are few. Chinese trade creates millions of jobs at home, and no country is poised to take that pole position.

Meanwhile, writings on an American decline are increasing. One such is a thoughtful essay by Joseph H Nye (Jr) which sees this arising because“ a country can lose its internal virtue and attractiveness to others”. In other words, the values that the US once stood for is diminishing in shine. The Harvard Business Review discusses the debate on ‘declinism’ as a response to swift and deep change. Whatever the final analysis, the worry for India is clear. A robust and active America that is responsive to looming threats is in our interest. That’s not just against, China, but also revving up a post Covid world economy, and severe climate change.

America has to lead, but it seems lost in a welter of inane debates and issues. Neither Trump or Biden seem to be able to provide the leadership needed in a turbulent world, nor even a modicum of a moral compass that supposedly steers the American value system. While the US needs new leaders to step up, it may also be time for the Global South to take the lead on the most basic value of all, the right to life and an end to wars, with India leading the charge. Our economic growth needs peace, especially on our borders. Time to call a halt, and consider human rights in all its reality and breadth, rather than proselytising and pointless reports.

The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.