 "US-China rivalry in Bay of Bengal: Not all quiet on India’s eastern front")
The ouster of Sheikh Hasina from Bangladesh has left a vacuum in the pursuance of its set pattern of external relations. The internal turbulence and competition for supremacy amongst various factions within Bangladesh is playing out in the open. The caretaker government, which has been installed, is not in accordance with the constitution, hence lacks international credibility and possibly even domestic credibility. It has slowed down Bangladesh’s transactions with the world.
With due regard to the Advisor to the Cabinet, he is not a seasoned politician and not the voice of people as it would be in a democracy. This will restrict his ability to take a long-term view of the foreign policy of the country. Bangladesh foreign policy discourse has largely been dominated by China and India as prime associates for most of its development, trade, and commerce, and rightly so, they are large and economically sound neighbours. Bangladesh is a world leader in textiles. The future course of Bangladesh’s domestic and foreign policy will have to be seen. One thing is certain: so far, “All Quiet on the Eastern Seaboard” of India will soon become history.
The sudden turn of events in Bangladesh was probably a surprise for many. The Army’s advice to Hasina to leave the country for her own safety speaks loudly of their connivance in the regime change. While the agitation by the students was turning violent, there was no sign of police nor any indulgence of the Army, which could have prevented the prime minister’s residence from being ransacked. Selective killing of Awami League members and minority Hindu community followed. However, it must be mentioned that some students were seen protecting the Hindu temples and homes.
Then the question is who was giving them a free run. A prime minister who led the country to tremendous development and excellent trade, which increased Bangladesh’s GDP and per capita income to a level that lifted the country out of the category of extreme poverty, had to exit in this manner.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsLooking at the composition of the interim government, it can be safely stated that it has US indulgence and backing of the Army. The outgoing PM had mentioned that the US was unhappy with the rejection of their request for usage of St Martin Island (a small island of approximately 3 sq km, located 9 kilometres south of Cox’s Bazar-Teknaf peninsula, southernmost part of Bangladesh).
Though a tiny island, it is just about 8 kilometres west of the northwest of the Myanmar coast at the mouth of the Naf River, and that makes it strategic. This island has a population of approximately 3,700, which is involved mainly in fishing and rice cultivation. There were rumours that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party government was to sell this island to the US. It must be noted that the US has its attention set on Myanmar too since the civil war kind of situation developed within. The military government had to withdraw from many regions due to various insurgent groups attacking the army within the country.
The US has raised the fiscal year’s appropriation for Myanmar to $167 million, which includes $75 million for cross-border aid. It has given $25 million for nonlethal support to ethnic armed organisations and People’s Defence Forces fighting the military regime. It was clearly seen by other nations as the indulgence of the US in the ongoing conflict.
China has been hedging its bets by supporting both the military regime and several armed groups closer to the Myanmar-China border. They have also been arming some of the insurgent groups to pacify them and prevent any ingress in Chinese territory. Also, to create alternate oil supply routes and encircle India, it has developed Kyaukphyu Port and taken operational control as an oil discharge port. The pipelines lead to refineries in Yunnan province.
After the Myanmar government’s decision to give development and operational control of Sitwe port to an Indian entity, China has become very weary of the Myanmar government. Earlier, Myanmar’s Kyaukphu port was developed by China and since 2017 has been used to offload crude oil from Saudi Arabia and Iran. There is a 770-kilometre pipeline that transfers crude into refineries in Yunan province. Roughly 8.8 million barrels of crude can be handled at this port, and the storage is 57 per cent full most of the time. This arrangement helps China reduce its dependency on the Malacca Straits.
China was keen to acquire the operating rights of Sittwe, whereas in order to maintain balance between two friendly countries, Myanmar awarded this contract to India’s IPGL. India’s request has been pending since long because it is key to India’s Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project. This will work as an alternate connectivity from the eastern coast of India to the northeastern states through Sittwe port. India has much at stake, this being an alternate route to the Siliguri corridor (Chicken’s Neck). Depending upon the governance structure in Bangladesh in the future, this route could become a tool for bargaining with India by external powers who are actively involved in the internal dynamics of Bangladesh. Much will depend upon when the elections take place. Until such a democratic government is in place, the weak governance structure is vulnerable to external coercion. Which countries are putting their stakes?
China: Beijing has been an influencing factor in Bangladesh. Infrastructure development and the weapon platforms of the Armed Forces are of Chinese origin. Includes ships, aircraft, and submarines. The submarine training and maintenance is being done by Chinese personnel based in Bangladesh. There are 11 projects on priority, which include the Padma bridge rail link, single-point mooring in Chittagong, the Dhaka-Ashulia elevated expressway, the development of a power supply line under PGCB, the power supply system under DPDC, the extension of the IT network, and the surface water supply project for Raj Shahi WASA.
Also, China is the top import partner of Bangladesh, which has tripled in the last decade. Approximately $19.35 billion worth of trade is imported from China, whereas export earnings from China are $680 million. There are nearly 510 Chinese companies operating in Bangladesh. Bangladesh is also part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative project. All these Chinese enterprises provide nearly 550,000 jobs to Bangladeshi citizens. All in all, China has much stake in Bangladesh. There were reports of discussions for Bangladesh ports to be used by People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) ships on a regular basis, which was declined.
Pakistan: Since the formation of the interim government in Bangladesh, the Pakistan High Commissioner has been meeting the Advisor and the government officials. It is well known that Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI has been active in Bangladesh since its independence. ISI is closely linked to Jamat. The student’s stir offered an opportunity to the ISI to instigate Jamat and fuel the fire. Clearly, there were three kinds of narratives in this turmoil: anti-India (because Sheikh Hasina was seen as close to India), anti-Awami League because the party members were being perceived as corrupt, and anti-Hindu since the Awami League was seen as supportive of Hindus.
The reservation policies had already been addressed by the former PM; also, the High Court order that had reintroduced the reservation for Mukti-Yoddha children/grandchildren had also been struck down, and yet the students were instigated. Here the Pakistan/ISI complicity in connivance with Jamat was clearly visible. It is believed that ex-PM Nawaz Sharif has gone to the extent of stating that the wrongs Pakistan did in 1971 will be set right. Pakistan’s interest directly impinges on India’s internal security, and this is what security establishments have to deal with firmly. Any adverse impact on the connectivity projects with India’s North East from Tripura and West Bengal passing through Bangladesh can become a geopolitical challenge.
The US: Washington has been active in the region for a long time. It began with funding the churches on the Myanmar-Bangladesh border; later, when Bangladesh announced elections, the US warned against the use of any non-democratic methods. It also invoked cancellation of visas of certain Awami League entities, possibly because of the US’ unhappiness with the Sheikh Hasina government.
The reasons are quite a few. Sheikh Hasina, before resigning, had mentioned a white country wanting to create a Christian state, carving out portions of Myanmar, Bangladesh, and India’s north-east, and Bangladesh having declined the US’ request for leasing St Martin Island for the US Armed Forces. This was further accentuated by Dhaka giving an appearance of closer relations with China and Chinese presence in the country. Most weapon platforms in Bangladesh are purchased from China, including submarines. China was already quite active in Myanmar, including having taken a contract for the operations of an oil discharge port.
If one looks at the Indian Ocean Region in total. China has access to Pakistan’s Gwadar port and also to Djibouti and is reasonably close to acquiring these facilities in the Maldives and Morocco, in addition to its presence in Myanmar and Bangladesh. While the US’ presence in the West and South West Indian Ocean and Gulf has been substantial for decades, the Bay of Bengal was clearly seen more as China dominated.
This is possibly an attempt by China to get over its Malacca dilemma, which would give the US an edge in case of any conflict. There have also been discussions between Thailand and China for access to the Bay of Bengal by way of dry ports and flyovers across Thailand. In reality, having made attempts to get better of the US in the South China Sea, it is clearly an attempt by China to strengthen its presence in the Bay of Bengal, denying the US any superiority.
The Sheikh Hasina government, which had frequently rejected American requests for access, was a hurdle for the US. China was already working with the Myanmar military government and some factions of the warring groups, and that left a change of guard in Bangladesh the only option that could provide the US an opportunity to prevent ‘red-spread’ into Eastern IOR, including the Bay of Bengal.
What is emerging is the beginning of geopolitical contestation between two big powers. Managing contestation without a conflict should be the aim of two economic giants. In this game, India stands to lose if its own equation with Bangladesh and Myanmar does not remain on even keel. Its Act East policy, which is germane to development of India’s northeast and connectivity with Southeast Asia, is largely dependent on a stable and peaceful eastern seaboard. This has certainly been shaken up. Key to stability would be free and fair elections in Bangladesh to give it a constitutional government with whom India can begin afresh.
Contestation between the US and China is here to stay now, and this reality will have to be factored in any political, diplomatic, and military discourse in India. From a zone of peace, the Indian Ocean is headed for contestation for supremacy between two big powers, one trying to maintain its leadership of existing international order and the other narrowing the gap in the contest to take over the lead.
Militarily, China is quite some distance behind the US. Will a miscalculation of each other’s military strength lead to hot conflict, or will the diplomacy and political efforts by both sides lead to a more stable and peaceful world that could see prosperity in this part of the world? Only time will tell.
The author is Chairman, Trustee Board of India Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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