Trump’s Gaza plan strikes a balance, but can it win consensus?

After meeting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House, United States President Donald Trump presented a 20-point peace plan for ending the war in Gaza. Qatar and Egypt have transmitted Trump’s proposal to Hamas for consideration. If the plan is accepted by both sides, the war is to end immediately, with all captives held in Gaza, whether alive or dead, to be returned within 72 hours, and Palestinian prisoners released.

Trump and Netanyahu have delivered an ultimatum to Hamas. Trump said that Netanyahu will have full US backing to “do what he has to do” if Hamas does not agree to the peace plan, while Netanyahu said that if Hamas rejects the plan or doesn’t follow through, then Israel will “finish” Hamas.

For the first time, a post-war governance structure for Gaza is outlined. The plan envisions a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) eventually governing the enclave after a transitional period run by a technocratic committee. The PA has welcomed the proposal. It said in a statement that it “welcomes the sincere and determined efforts of President Donald Trump to end the war on Gaza and affirms its confidence in his ability to find a path toward peace”.

Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE have all expressed support for Trump’s peace plan. The foreign ministers of these countries released a joint statement welcoming Trump’s “sincere efforts to end the war in Gaza", and asserted their confidence in his ability to find a path to peace.

The statement went on to say that these countries are willing to work with “the United States to end the war in Gaza through a comprehensive deal that ensures unrestricted delivery of sufficient humanitarian aid to Gaza, no displacement of the Palestinians, the release of hostages, a security mechanism that guarantees the security of all sides, full Israeli withdrawal, rebuilds Gaza and creates a path for a just peace on the basis of the two-state solution, under which Gaza is fully integrated with the West Bank in a Palestinian state in accordance with international law as key to achieving regional stability and security”.

Significantly, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted on X that he welcomed the plan. “I am also convinced that durable peace between the Palestinian people and Israel would be essential in bringing political stability and economic growth to the region,” he wrote. “It is also my firm belief that President Trump is fully prepared to assist in whatever way necessary to make this extremely important and urgent understanding become a reality.”

“I laud President Trump’s leadership and the vital role played by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in bringing an end to this war.” He added, “I also strongly believe that the implementation of the two-state proposal is essential to ensure lasting peace in the region.” Sharif’s statement comes as Islamabad has sought to deepen ties with Trump, nominating him for a Nobel Peace Prize over his involvement in reaching a ceasefire with India earlier this year.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also hailed Trump for his efforts to broker a ceasefire. “I commend US President Donald Trump’s efforts and leadership aimed at halting the bloodshed in Gaza and achieving a ceasefire,” Erdogan said in a statement. He added that Turkey would continue to support the diplomatic process and is committed to helping establish “a just and lasting peace acceptable to all parties”.

Israeli opposition politician Benny Gantz said, X: “I laud President Trump’s extraordinary efforts to secure a hostage deal and safeguard Israeli security. Now is the time for initiative.” He added, “We must not miss out on the opportunity to bring back the hostages, safeguard our security and catalyse a ‘Strategic Flip’, expanding the circles of regional normalisation.”

Donald Trump’s peace plan contains provisions that are both favourable and unfavourable to Israel’s stated positions. While Netanyahu has expressed support for the general proposal, key elements may conflict with the goals of Israel’s far-right government. It offers several points that could be seen as beneficial to Israel but also raises significant security concerns and is already facing resistance from hardline Israeli politicians.

There are several aspects that could benefit Israel and need to be recognised.

• First, a key component of the plan is the release of all Israeli hostages held by Hamas within 72 hours of an agreement. The return of hostages has been a central demand of the Israeli public and government.

• Second, the plan offers amnesty to Hamas members who agree to peaceful coexistence and decommissioning their weapons. This potentially could eliminate the need for an extended and costly military campaign to hunt down every last member.

• Third, the plan requires Hamas to disarm and Gaza to be demilitarised, aligning with Israel’s security goals to eliminate the threat posed by the group.

• Fourth, the plan explicitly states that Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza, which aligns with the stated goals of some Israeli leaders and avoids international condemnation.

• Fifth, the proposal calls for a temporary technocratic government in Gaza, with Hamas having no direct or indirect role. This removes Israel’s enemy from power in Gaza.

On the other hand, there are also several aspects that are a cause of concern for Israel and will face opposition by Israeli hardliners.

• First, the proposal calls for Israel to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the hostages. While this is a common component of almost all proposed peace deals on Gaza, hardliners within Israel may oppose releasing those convicted of terrorism.

• Second, the plan mandates a gradual Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Some Israeli hardliners fear this could create a security vacuum and allow a resurgent Hamas or other militant groups to operate.

• Third, the plan envisions the reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) eventually governing Gaza, but Israel’s current government is strongly opposed to the PA’s involvement, citing corruption and opposition to peace. Key members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition have already rejected the plan, calling it a “nonstarter”. These include Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

While Netanyahu has expressed support for the general proposal, his coalition relies on the votes of hardline parties like Smotrich’s Religious Zionism and could collapse if he makes concessions that go against their demands. Thus, accepting the plan by Netanyahu could destabilise or even lead to the collapse of his government.

In conclusion, evaluating the chances of success for Donald Trump’s new peace plan for Gaza is a complex task. The plan contains favourable elements for Israel, particularly regarding security and Hamas’s disarmament. However, its success is undermined by provisions that challenge Israeli policy regarding long-term control and Palestinian governance.

While the Trump plan leaves the door open to Palestinian statehood, the lack of details and timing may create future instability and disagreement. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly endorsed it, the plan’s future remains highly uncertain, primarily because it requires Hamas’s cooperation and faces significant resistance from factions on both sides. The final outcome will depend on the willingness of all parties to compromise on fundamental issues.

The writer is a retired Indian diplomat and had previously served as Ambassador in Kuwait and Morocco and as Consul General in New York. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.