Trump-Putin phone call shows Russian president ‘playing’ POTUS, sensing his desperation for a deal

One of the things frequently mentioned in public discourse on Ukraine-Russia war, especially Donald Trump’s handling of it, is how Ukraine has been thrown under the bus. For example, critics have been panning Donald Trump for ‘dealing’ with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine’s head, the prime example of which was a reportedly 90-minute phone call between the American and the Russian presidents on Tuesday where a ceasefire ‘of sorts’ was agreed upon, that in initial readings seems to have fallen well short of a complete pause in fighting for a 30-day period.

White House said the immediate pause on strikes against energy infrastructure is a “movement to peace”, but it is evident that Putin has not backed out from his terms and conditions and seems in no mood for an unconditional ceasefire.

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At this stage, the American president appears far more eager to seal the peace deal than his Russian counterpart who has the better cards to deal in a brutal war of attrition and wants to press ahead – designating any such pause as a breather for Ukraine that goes against his interests.

So, if all that ‘dealmaker’ Trump has been able to achieve is an “energy and infrastructure ceasefire” and a promise of exchanging prisoners while holding out the promise of normalizing bilateral ties – the biggest leverage that the collective West has against Russia, how has the developments served Ukraine’s interest?

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It hasn’t, and a lesson in realpolitik would have been in order for Ukraine that bought into the European bombast and insecurities over Russia. The very fact that Trump didn’t consider it necessary to conduct a three-way conference, or at the very least sit down with Zelenskyy before the call should tell us Ukraine’s leverage (or lack of it) over the developments. Marco Rubio did meet a Ukrainian delegation in Saudi Arabia last week, but it doesn’t amount to much when the security guarantees, Ukraine’s biggest demand in lieu of agreeing to the ceasefire, appears to have remained unaddressed.

The short point most Europeans and anti-Trumpers are not ready to accept is this: Trump interprets the conflict in Europe as America’s proxy war against Russia, and therefore he doesn’t deem it necessary to bring Ukraine into the picture – except extracting an agreement on ceasefire through strong-arm tactics – to stop the war. He would have noted that Zelenskyy is writing blank cheques that Ukraine cannot encash without American military, intelligence and other forms of aid, and he fails to understand why he should keep pumping dollars and ammunitions for a cause that increasingly looks irreversible.

It is debatable whether Trump wants to end the war because young lives are being thrown into the meatgrinder, a moral position he has publicly taken, or he simply wants to stop backing the losing side.

The danger for Trump, however, is of over-promising and under-delivering. That may still be enough to placate his MAGA base but his image as the dealmaker par excellence is at risk. A quick glance through the readouts reveals that Putin senses Trump’s desperation for a denouement and as a tough negotiator, he won’t let that pass.

The White House readout makes explicit Trumps’ desire for a new modus vivendi with Russia: “Both leaders agreed this conflict needs to end with a lasting peace. They also stressed the need for improved bilateral relations between the United States and Russia”, and later in the statement, “The two leaders agreed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has huge upside. This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved.”

But it isn’t clear what he has managed to achieve in return. Putin seems fixated on degrading Ukraine’s military capabilities. The Kremlin readout, considerably more elaborate than the White House statement, makes it clear that “In the context of the US President’s initiative to introduce a 30-day ceasefire, the Russian side outlined a number of significant points regarding ensuring effective control over a possible ceasefire along the entire line of contact, the necessity to stop the forced mobilization in Ukraine and the rearmament of the Ukrainian armed forces.”

With an added emphasis that “the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working toward its resolution through political and diplomatic means should be a complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv.”

Trump may get his ice hockey matches between American and Russian players. The fate of the ceasefire deal is up in the air.

The writer is Deputy Executive Editor, Firstpost. He tweets as @sreemoytalukdar. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.