Trump 2.0: What it may mean for India-US relations

Now with just about four months left for the US presidential elections, the world is in anticipation. Even though expert opinions are divided on the anticipated results, the possibility of a Trump 2.0 presidency looms large. The return of a familiar but unpredictable leader to the zenith of one of the most influential countries in the international political landscape might have a profound impact on the geo-political fabric. Considering the bilateral relations of India and the US, it could be estimated that the new presidency could have a profound impact on the same.

Economy: A double-edged sword

Trump’s economic policies have always had a considerable impact on global markets. With his ‘America First’ policy characterised by tariffs and other protectionist policies, ripples across the global market have been unavoidable. The economic policies of Trump focus on reducing trade deficits and safeguarding domestic producers and manufacturers. This might turn out to be of much danger to Indian exporters as a considerable trade tariff might be imposed on Indian exports, as steel and aluminium exports were affected in the former tenure. But at the same time, this might pave the way for better and increased negotiations for the Indian markets.

More from Opinion

Sergio Gor’s senate hearing signals the future of Indo-American ties How Trump’s ‘War on Drugs’ buildup against Venezuela has a hidden agenda

Despite the economic nationalist policies of Trump having a negative impact on the Indian markets, the investment sector might benefit from the coming back of Trump. ‘China, the world’s principal global threat,’ as considered by Trump, might be imposed with multiple tariffs, and American investors shall be urged to carry out their investments far off from China. India, as a growing economy, could exploit this opportunity and attract investments. This shall lead to a boost in the Indian economy, which in turn shall create more employment opportunities and better economic facilities for India.

Migration: Point of distress

Migration policies during the previous Trump administration were one of the points of contention for India. With the return of Trump to power, these policies could get more stringent. The Trump administration, which tightened the H-1B visa programme, made things difficult for the IT professionals migrating to the US from India. With more scrutiny and less acceptance rates, the uncertainty loomed large for the Indian workers in the US.

Impact Shorts

More Shorts

How army remains Pakistan’s biggest business house

60 years on, why 1965 India–Pakistan war still matters

With intensified migration control, the Indian student diaspora, which forms one of the largest foreign student communities in the US, might find it difficult to explore career opportunities in the US. And the changes in Optional Practical Training (OPT) rules might affect the employability and chances to find a job in the US, post studies. Family migration might also be negatively affected by the coming of the Trump administration.

Military: Bright future ahead

The defence and military cooperation between India and the US had flourished under the first Trump administration. This is expected to continue if Trump comes into power a second time. Prominent agreements such as COMCASA and BECA were signed during the Trump presidency. They helped in the flourishing and deepening of the military ties of the countries and enhanced the Indian military capabilities and the interoperability between both militaries.

With real-time intelligence sharing, access to greater military technology, and increased arms sales in cutting-edge military technology, the enhancement of Indian military capabilities will be inevitable, and this shall also help in the maintenance of a strategic balance in the region. Apache and Chinook helicopters and Sea Guardian drones could testify to this fact. It was also during Trump’s presidency that India conducted its first tri-military exercise with the US.

Common Enemy

The Indo-Pacific policy of the probable Trump administration may well align with the strategies of India. With the coming back of Trump to power, the balancing of power in the Indo-Pacific region shall receive an impetus. The Trump administration, which shall focus on the reduction of Chinese influence in the region, shall fuel the Indian interests, which are already influenced by the skirmishes with its neighbour.

The advent of the Trump administration may be characterised by increased defence and military cooperation and considerable support for India during times of crisis involving China. Like in the case of the Galwan Valley incident when the US extended diplomatic support to India.

This may also strengthen the Quad, involving India, the US, Australia, and Japan, and further fuel the strategic cooperation and military ties. At the same time, the Trump administration, which may be keen to tackle terrorism, might be of help for India to counter much more prevalent terrorism in the South Asian region. The coming back of Trump to power may be a boon in disguise for India in the geopolitical arena.

Conclusion

If there is a Trump 2.0 administration in the US, it might turn out to be both an advantage and a disadvantage for India. It will depend on the diplomacy and the strategies of India as to how they mitigate through the crisis posed by the new administration. The new administration might also open up various doors in trade, military, and economic development for India. It shall help in the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region by tackling the common challenge—China. It might be an opportunity to build greater ties between an upcoming Trump administration in the US and the existing Modi government in India, which were apparently friendly during Trump’s first term.

The author is a research scholar at Pondicherry University. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.