Trump 2.0: Golden era or retribution and resistance?

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has inspired all his supporters at home who appeared hypnotised by his assertion, in his inaugural address, that a golden era has begun in the United States and the decline of the country has ended.

But a large number of American voters who did not vote for him and most of them are supporters of the Democratic Party seem utterly disappointed by announcements of numerous executive orders that smack of retribution, retaliation and revenge. Trump has characterised the Biden Administration as “corrupt and radical” and has ordered an internal investigation of the functioning of several departments. The undocumented immigrants have begun to have sleepless nights for fear of deportation, the transgender community is afraid of losing their rights, the student community are concerned about losing State support in the form of loans, the non-white minority communities are going to face elimination of DEI or “diversity, Equity and Inclusive” programmes.

While Trump has pardoned the rioters involved in the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol and reduced the sentences of Proud Boys and Oath takers serving jail terms, the security officials who were killed or injured will suffer psychological damages. Trump declared his inauguration day as the day of liberation and promised freedom and democracy, but many others are concerned about the democratic backsliding in Trump’s return to power. Trump has promised many things that are contradictory and some will surely benefit the ultra-rich and impoverish millions others. Trump 2.0 will cut tax for Corporate America, but reduce or eliminate several welfare programmes for the poor and lower middle class.

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Whereas America is deeply polarised today and it may deepen further in the coming four years, his foreign policy threatens to create more instability in a global order that is already facing enormous stress due to wars, conflicts, inflation, and debts. First, the disruption in international trade has already begun with his announcement of 25 per cent of higher tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and Canada. Ironically, President Trump chose to make the first strike on NAFTA members in the neighbourhood. This implies that his threat to enhance tariffs on EU exports is almost certainly going to be implemented.

At the moment, Trump has relatively kept China guessing about the depth and breadth of his tariff on imports from China. In fact, his statement that China is already facing tariffs from the time of his first term through Joe Biden’s administration appears to be a temporary palliative. By extending a widely reported invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping, speaking to him before his inauguration, extending implementation of the law to ban TikTok by 75 days and hinting at charging Taiwan more for receiving American security protection, Trump appears to have been strategising his China policy.

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Interestingly, Trump has also sent feelers to Russian President Vladimir Putin to have an early face-to-face meeting to sort out differences and bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine. He often flaunted his capacity to end the war in Ukraine and in West Asia on the very first day of his administration. It was relatively easy to push for a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel due to the massive destruction Israel had caused in Gaza, Lebanon and colossal loss of strength of Hamas and Hezbollah. In addition, Trump had boastfully expressed his support for the Netanyahu government in Israel and his threat was mainly aimed at a decimated Hamas.

But dealing with the Russian strongman would not be that easy. Like in the case of China, Trump through his campaign days had criticised Biden’s full-fledged backing of Ukraine, lamented the cost of the Ukraine War for the American people and was known for his conciliatory approach towards strong leaders. Putin certainly was ready to deal with an American President with such views rather than Joe Biden who launched all-rounded efforts to punish Russia by empowering Ukraine, sanctioning Russia and strengthening the NATO alliance.

Obviously, Trump failed to even bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine, what to speak of an end to the war, in the first twenty-four hours of entering office or even before his inauguration. Now there are talks about resolving the Ukraine conflict within 100 days! But this cannot be dubbed as Trump’s failure.

In all probability, his offensive against his allies in North America and Europe and softer approach towards America’s adversaries or rivals during the early days of his second administration may very well be a well thought out strategy. Trump’s first term was chaotic because of lack of experience and preparation. The second term is undoubtedly well prepared. Numerous executive orders issued on the very first day have pleased some and unsettled others. Likewise, economic confrontation with the allies and conciliatory tone towards adversaries or rivals should not be read as immature or ad hoc.

In fact, the tolerance level of America’s NATO partners is high. It is partly because of their dependence on the US for security and partly their current economic vulnerabilities. Despite guarded opposition to Trump’s statements on purchasing Greenland, taking control of Panama and floating the idea of making Canada the 51st State, leaders of all Canada and the EU have expressed their desire to work with the second Trump Administration.

However, President Trump will soon realise that his “Golden Era” concept will not easily work and the divisions within the US and the differences between his administration and the allied countries will make the next four years a period of resistance and retribution. The Trumpean desire to deal with Russia and China single-handedly will face hurdles if the gaps in the trans-Atlantic ties widen. America cannot be great again, if alliances and strategic partnerships confront strains and stress and the domestic society remains polarised.

The writer is Editor of India Quarterly and Founder Chairperson of KIIPS. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.