Transactional diplomacy: How long can the US-Pakistan honeymoon last?

Following a period of strained ties under the Biden administration, relations between the United States and Pakistan are experiencing a significant thaw during Donald Trump’s second term. This shift was cemented by a recent high-profile meeting at the White House on September 25, 2025, where Trump met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir.

Trump praised both Munir and Prime Minister Sharif as “great guys” before their meeting, which was unusual for its secrecy—with no press access, official visuals, or public statements from the White House. This contrasted with a high-profile visit on the same day by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Some reports highlighted that Trump kept the Pakistani delegation waiting for about 30 minutes while he completed other engagements, though Sharif and Munir did not seem to have taken it as a diplomatic slight.

It may be recalled that during his first term as President, Trump tweeted on January 1, 2018, that the US had “foolishly given Pakistan more than $33 billion in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit”. He accused Pakistan of providing “safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan”. The comment was part of a series of escalating tensions over Pakistan’s perceived inaction against extremist groups operating within its borders. Trump also followed through on his threat to cut aid. Days after the tweet, the US suspended most of its security assistance to Pakistan. By September 2018, the Pentagon had cancelled $300 million in military aid, stating that Pakistan had failed to take “decisive actions” against militant groups.

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In his second term, Trump has adopted a completely different approach toward Pakistan—a dramatic shift from his first term. His personal business interests are certainly playing a pivotal role in shaping his policy toward Pakistan. These interests primarily involve ventures related to cryptocurrency and potential deals for rare earth mineral exploration. Trump’s business dealings have raised questions about potential conflicts of interest concerning his foreign policy, particularly toward India and Pakistan.

A finance platform called World Liberty Financial (WLF) is reportedly 60 per cent owned by Donald Trump’s sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., along with his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. In April 2025, WLF signed a “Letter of Intent” with the newly formed Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) to accelerate blockchain innovation and the integration of decentralised finance. The deal-making was reportedly attended by high-profile Pakistani officials, including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir. In January 2025, Gentry Beach, a Texas hedge fund manager described as a Trump ally, met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to discuss billions in investments. The planned investments include real estate, mining, energy, and AI.

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The Trump family’s business associates, including Zach Witkoff and Eric Trump, have also visited Pakistan this year to explore investment opportunities. In addition, reports have surfaced about potential negotiations between the Trump Organization and a Pakistani tycoon to develop a Trump Tower in Islamabad. There has been speculation on social media that Pakistan may offer a site for a Trump Tower in Islamabad’s Diplomatic Enclave. The project, inspired by Trump properties in Dubai and Istanbul, aims to cater to high-end clientele, potentially reshaping the capital’s skyline with global luxury standards. Though still in its infancy, the deal hints at major foreign investment and a bold branding move in South Asia.

The confluence of these personal business interests and diplomatic overtures has drawn scrutiny as well as criticism in the US. Trump’s critics argue that this may represent a conflict of interest influencing foreign policy decisions, particularly concerning US-India relations. Former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has noted that Trump’s renewed interest in Pakistan coincided with these business deals, heightening concerns about conflicts of interest.

During his second term, Trump has engaged with Pakistan through a series of high-level meetings and economic and military agreements, signalling a significant warming of relations. The change in posture is centred on economic incentives and has led to renewed diplomatic engagement and military aid. A core element of the warming relations is the transactional focus on trade and investment, which appeals to Trump’s “America First” agenda. The US sees Pakistan as a potential source for critical minerals and rare earths essential for industrial, defence, and clean energy sectors. The Pakistani government, in turn, is courting US investment to capitalise on this resource-rich narrative.

Since the beginning of Donald Trump’s second term in 2025, Pakistan has improved relations with the United States by engaging in a diplomatic charm offensive that analysts have widely described as relying on flattery. This approach has yielded positive results for Pakistan, with a shift in US policy and rhetoric that contrasts sharply with Trump’s hostile stance toward Islamabad during his first term. Following a ceasefire with India in May 2025, Pakistan nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. This nomination reportedly capitalised on Trump’s long-standing desire to win the award. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif praised Trump as a “man of peace” in his September 2025 speech at the United Nations General Assembly and claimed Trump’s decisive leadership helped avert a “catastrophe.” Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir secured two unusual and highly valued meetings at the White House with Trump during 2025. The meetings, including a private lunch, gave Munir an opportunity to pitch Trump on natural resource deals.

In this regard, Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir’s June 18, 2025 private luncheon meeting with Trump at the White House was highly significant and signalled a major reset and shift in US-Pakistan relations. The meeting was particularly notable because it occurred during a period of heightened tensions in South Asia and was the first time in 15 years that a sitting US president had hosted a Pakistani army chief at the White House. President Trump and other US officials publicly praised Munir’s role in helping to de-escalate the conflict and prevent a potential nuclear confrontation. The visit symbolised a potential thawing of a historically fraught relationship, which had been strained for years under successive US administrations.

This visit by General Asim Munir significantly improved US-Pakistan ties and paved the way for wider cooperation across several key areas. The visit highlighted the Pakistani military’s powerful role in national security and foreign policy. Observers noted that the US was again engaging directly with the institution capable of delivering results, bypassing civilian leadership. By engaging directly with Pakistan’s military leadership, Washington signalled a renewed interest in re-establishing military and economic cooperation. Critics, however, raised concerns that this approach undermines democratic consolidation in Pakistan by legitimising military overreach.

Following the meeting, the Trump administration announced its intention to help Pakistan develop its untapped oil and mineral reserves. This was later followed by a $500 million American investment in Pakistan’s critical minerals sector, positioning Pakistan as a new strategic resource supplier for the US. In July 2025, Trump claimed on Truth Social that the US would help Pakistan develop its “massive oil reserves.” The US and Pakistan finalised trade agreements that reduced tariffs on Pakistani goods and paved the way for US investment in Pakistan’s oil, mineral, and IT industries. This aligned with Pakistan’s push for economic support and diversified its limited export offerings to the US market. The economic cooperation has been described as a “strategic handshake”, reflecting a mutual benefit: the US secures resources and trade, while Pakistan receives a much-needed economic boost.

Asim Munir paid a second visit to the U.S. in August 2025. A primary reason for the visit was Munir’s attendance at the retirement ceremony of CENTCOM Commander General Michael E. Kurilla and the change-of-command ceremony for the new commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, in Tampa, Florida. The trip followed Kurilla’s praise for Pakistan’s counterterrorism cooperation. Munir met with top American military leadership, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine, to discuss areas of “mutual professional interest,” such as counterterrorism, regional security, and intelligence coordination.

Recent counterterrorism cooperation between the US and Pakistan has included official dialogues, joint military exercises, and specific actions targeting militant groups. In March 2025, US and Pakistani forces collaborated to capture a high-value ISIS-Khorasan target, Sharifullah, who was the alleged mastermind of a 2021 attack on US forces in Afghanistan. A significant step occurred in August 2025 when the US designated the BLA as a foreign terrorist outfit. Pakistan, which perceives the BLA as a national security threat, views this as a positive development that will aid its efforts against terrorism.

A month later, however, the US, along with France and the UK, opposed a Pakistan-China proposal to blacklist the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) at the United Nations. The proposal was submitted to the UN Security Council’s 1267 Sanctions Committee, which focuses specifically on terrorist groups associated with Al-Qaeda or ISIL (ISIS). The US acted in concert with the UK and France in placing a “technical hold” on the proposal, citing insufficient evidence to link the BLA to Al-Qaeda or ISIL, which is a requirement for designation under the 1267 sanctions list.

Pakistan views the warming of relations with the US as a “win-win” situation. It aims to secure economic investment, leverage military support, and enhance diplomatic standing amid a complex geopolitical landscape. The diplomatic thaw with the US has already boosted Pakistan’s economy, with the Pakistan Stock Exchange hitting a new all-time high. The US military has described its counterterrorism partnership with Pakistan as “phenomenal” during the first months of the new Trump administration, reflecting renewed security cooperation.

The rapprochement with Pakistan is not occurring in a vacuum but within a wider regional and international context. The improved ties coincide with a cooling in relations between the US and India. The strain is marked by Trump’s frustration over India’s continued purchase of discounted Russian oil, which has led him to impose higher tariffs on India. Pakistan benefits from this shift in US strategic priorities. Pakistan’s geostrategic importance, including its role in the Middle East and its relationship with China, also reportedly influences Trump’s calculations.

The warming of ties between Donald Trump and Pakistan is of concern to India. These concerns centre on potential policy shifts that could upend India’s strategic gains and amplify regional tensions. Potential shifts in US foreign policy could undermine India’s strategic interests. India fears a re-hyphenation of US foreign policy toward India and Pakistan, a renewed US security focus on Pakistan, and the possible legitimisation of Pakistan’s military-led government. Despite these positive developments, Trump’s unpredictable, transactional approach introduces an element of uncertainty. While military-to-military cooperation and counterterrorism efforts are expected to continue, other aspects of the relationship could change abruptly based

on evolving US interests or geopolitical shifts.Can the US-Pakistan bonhomie last? The current US-Pakistan warmth is driven by temporary, interest-based opportunities rather than a fundamental strategic alignment. The US’s primary motivations appear tactical and transactional, while Pakistan is seeking economic and diplomatic breathing room. For the relationship to become truly durable, Pakistan would need to achieve sustained political and economic stability, address structural issues, and navigate its ties with China without alienating the US Given the history of the relationship and persistent challenges, analysts suggest the current friendly period is likely a temporary “thaw” rather than a lasting shift.

Summing up, Trump’s current relationship with Pakistan is undergoing a significant reset, driven primarily by transactional diplomacy centred on economic opportunities and geopolitical recalibration. This new alignment, bolstered by improved high-level contact and diverging US interests from India, has thawed previously frosty relations, though it remains vulnerable to the unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policy approach. While the US and Pakistan are currently enjoying a positive phase, it is a pragmatic and conditional engagement driven by specific, shifting US strategic interests and Pakistan’s need for economic relief. The deep-seated issues and historical tensions that have traditionally strained the relationship remain a significant obstacle to a lasting partnership.

The writer is a retired Indian diplomat and had previously served as Ambassador in Kuwait and Morocco and as Consul General in New York. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.