Trading logic for pressure: How America’s tariff gambit risks losing India

US President Donald Trump’s adviser on trade, Peter Navarro, has made some headlines by parroting the illogical and unfounded tariff tirade against India. Instead of advising his boss as to what is right and factual, he has chosen the cheaper option of cementing the lies to justify an irrational act to begin with. This is so true as far as trade and tariff measures, especially the 25 per cent additional tariffs on India effective August 27, are concerned.

New Delhi has been accused of fuelling and sustaining the Russia-Ukraine war by buying crude in its own national interest. By continuously targeting India in an illegitimate and unilateral manner, the US has shown that it is as unreasonable and unreliable a partner as it has been through most of history.

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Opportunism and hypocrisy are the buzzwords under the garb of Make America Great Again (Maga). Bamboozling the world due to the power differential it enjoys smacks of a neo-colonial mindset. But India has fought against colonialism of any kind forever. India—a civilisational state with all the right vectors of demography, geography and economy aligning in full force—is not going to buckle under misplaced priorities and pressure.

The internal resilience will ward off such attempts as New Delhi diversifies and refocuses on some of its other important partnerships in Eurasia, Asia and Africa and the Global South, including Latin America, with new and refined mechanisms, instruments and organisations in bilateral and regional formats. There will be temporary shocks and setbacks in the short run, but the lesson learnt, perhaps the hard way, is not to put all your eggs in one basket. Time has come to have your own robust basket.

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Even though the wide-ranging India-US relationship will surely stabilise in times to come, it will leave a bitter taste and will indeed make Indian policymakers wiser and smarter. There are many sane voices in the US who understand the significance of the Indian strategic pivot in the global scheme of things, and their wise counsel will hopefully not fall on deaf ears, since so much is at stake going forward for both sides.

Some lamely argue that New Delhi should be pliable, least knowing India’s resilience and pride in its civilisational heritage. Weak in posture and resolve will perish, like in the famous ‘Sholay’ film dialogue ‘Jo dar gaya so mar gaya’.

Seeing President Trump’s first term, it should have been no surprise that more of the same will follow where trade and tariffs and sanctions are concerned, being his favourable currency of international discourse. But this time it has been quite obnoxious and totally irrational. The Indian Minister of External Affairs, during his recent visit to Russia for the intergovernmental commission, prior to the summit, expressed his perplexity: “I don’t want to comment on any person, but let me say we are not the biggest purchasers of Russian oil or LNG. The US asked us to stabilise energy markets, including by buying Russian energy. So, we are quite perplexed.” Any rational person will find it difficult to read this US’ illegible script, since facts and stats speak otherwise.

How would one justify the statement that if the Russia-Ukraine war does not stop, more sanctions on India will follow. This again attests to the utter bankruptcy and passing the buck approach underscored by the ridiculous presumption that India had a causal connection with the Eurasian war while absolving themselves. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been talking to both Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy, urging them to resolve the conflict on the table through dialogue and diplomacy, while clearly stipulating that “This is not an era of war.”

This, India is doing not under pressure, but sanity demands that a principled foreign policy ought to help end this infructuous and devastating war for which the West and the actors are fully responsible due to their blind quest for geopolitical games and objectives. PM Modi again spoke to Putin and Zelenskyy, urging them to end the war before and after the Alaska meeting between the Russian and US presidents.

One may scratch one’s head for eternity to find some rationale for this unifocal, blinkered approach of the US towards New Delhi, decimating the efforts of a quarter century to build solid ties between the largest and greatest democracies for global good. The only other rational-irrational explanation is that President Trump may have been miffed and taken it personally, since unlike their terror-sponsoring old-new friend Pakistan, New Delhi simply told the truth that Pakistan is a bilateral issue and a pause in conflict was acceded to upon the request of Islamabad and not under any mediation or pressure.

Truth often hurts. But I guess, knowing the peculiar characteristics of the current US President, the Indian side could have resorted to the old wise dictum ‘Satyam bruyat priyam bruyat, na bruyat satyam apriyam’. Some would say that perhaps a better framing and phrasing of our commentary on the issue could have assuaged the ego of the mighty. But there is no guarantee that even that would be any good to turn the truth into a fib and figment of imagination.

As such, India will be the next Chair of Brics while it is also likely to hold Quad summit this year. Navigating such divergent groups may be difficult, but Indian diplomacy is far too adept in this art for securing its national interest. Back-to-back meetings between EAM Jaishankar with his Chinese and Russian counterparts and PM Modi’s upcoming visit to Japan and China are a clear indicator that India’s options are not limited.

Hopefully the India-US relationship will be course-corrected given the exceptional significance rather than being subjected to whimsical mood swings, for which the newly announced Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, a close confidante of President Trump, has a role cut out for him.

Many objective analysts hold the view, like Nikki Haley, that “scuttling 25 years of momentum with the only country that can serve as a counterweight to Chinese dominance in Asia would be a strategic disaster”. And Beijing will be smiling all the way. Moreover, there is no doubt that despite the tall claims, the US consumers will face the brunt of such a tariff onslaught, but by then it should not be too late.

Since India has been chosen for singular affection by our so-called global Comprehensive Strategic Partners, New Delhi has doubled up its multi-alignment policy to create buffers and shock observers. Increasing interactions with Japan, France, Russia and China at the highest levels is the right thing to do. FTAs with EAEU, GCC, EU and Oman, etc, are being fast-tracked. With China and Russia being far more vocal against US exactitude against India, closer cooperation in the Eurasian landscape could be decisive in which Brics + will become the fulcrum, much to the discomfort of the US and the West. The hard fact remains that the arrogance of power combined with ignorance is self-defeating, even if it’s a heady mix in the short run. This has its inherent self-destructive triggers.

Meanwhile, India also moves on despite having kept the strategic silence in the public domain. Expeditious self-reliance and creating firewalls against arbitrary actions of friends and foes alike have to be the utmost priority by developing dependable partnerships and reliable supply chains through a multi-pronged strategy and outreach. In fact, the ongoing US saga may as well become a once-in-a-century opportunity and blessing in disguise for India and several other countries. How we capitalise on it will define India’s future trajectory for a Viksit Bharat. Being held to ransom can’t be the way out.

The author is the former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is currently a Distinguished Fellow with Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.