Top global jihadi outfits are joining hands to push their terror agenda

Sarah Adams’ investigative  findings, revealing the unholy nexus between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran, Al Qaeda, and the Taliban—and their critical role in planning, training Hamas cadres, and orchestrating the deadly 7 October Hamas attacks—are indeed alarming, though not entirely unexpected for the global counterterrorism community.

The most critical takeaway from Sarah’s report is the convergence of Shia and Sunni groups, as well as West Asian and South Asian jihadist networks.

In my conversations with many Israeli experts, I have found that they are generally sceptical about the involvement of Pakistan-sponsored Sunni South Asian terrorist groups in anti-Israel political and militant activities in West Asia. However, this report vividly highlights extensive collaboration between Iran’s IRGC, Hamas, and South Asian Sunni terrorist groups such as the Haqqanis, the Taliban, and Al Qaeda at various levels. The involvement of top-level leadership within these organisations makes it abundantly clear that these terrorist groups are fundamentally extremist Islamist movements with an anti-West and global Sharia-driven agenda.

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During my field research in J&K, I interviewed several active and former terrorists, as well as their jihadist sympathisers. They unanimously voiced hatred and pledged jihad against Israel and the US. In fact, they categorise India, the US, and Israel as enemies of Islam.

Israel must therefore harbour no delusions or misunderstandings about South Asian terror groups and their patrons—the Pakistan Army and intelligence services. Any backchannel arrangements with Pakistan will ultimately backfire. In this regard, the 21-year US experience in Afghanistan’s war on terror serves as a valuable lesson.

Officially, Pakistan expressed support for the US in its fight against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. However, behind the scenes, its covert arm, Directorate S, was actively arming and strengthening the Taliban. US aid to Pakistan was diverted to the Taliban, who in turn sent American soldiers back home in body bags.

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The convergence of West Asian and South Asian terror networks is a worrisome development for both India and Israel. It opens an entirely new front for Israel, where it will have to deal with radical jihadists from the uncharted and unregulated badlands of Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, and Bangladesh. Al Qaeda and Taliban training camps, where Hamas cadres were trained, have withstood even the deadliest air raids by US bombers.

With a thriving global narcotics trade, Al Qaeda, the Haqqanis, and the Taliban can effectively survive without any external support. The tough terrain and challenging topography make ground operations extremely difficult.

For India, the convergence of West Asian and South Asian jihadists poses a major threat to internal security. Unlike in the past, Indian Muslims now display stronger affiliations with global Islamic issues, especially the Palestine-Israel conflict. They despise the growing ties between Tel Aviv and Delhi.

Since 2014, Muslim consolidation around religious themes has grown to worrying levels in India, as radical preachers perceive the Modi government as a Hindu nationalist administration. In this context, local jihadist elements in India will draw inspiration from developments in West Asia, as well as the ideology and tactics of groups from both West Asia and Africa.

A senior Hamas leader,  Khaled Mashal, lectured a large pro-Palestine gathering of Muslims in Kerala, organised by the Solidarity Youth Movement, the youth wing of Jamaat-e-Islami. Along with pro-Palestine slogans, participants also raised slogans against the bulldozing of illegal mosques by UP’s Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. Notably, Kerala is a South Indian state that has sent the largest number of cadres to ISIS.

India’s domestic Islamist organisations, such as PFI and Jamaat-e-Islami, have espoused the same causes, ideals, and values supported by Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Several former PFI cadres have joined ISIS, and former Jamaat-e-Islami cadres have joined Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Hizbul Mujahideen. Lashkar and Jaish fighters have fought alongside the Taliban against the US-led coalition forces.

The unmoved mover of the South Asian jihadist landscape is Pakistan’s security establishment. In the past, Pakistan has successfully embarrassed two superpowers in Afghanistan, causing them massive losses in men, money, morale, and material. Now, if their proxies, such as the Taliban, Haqqanis, and Al-Qaeda, were behind the 7 October attack, it cannot have occurred without their sanction and involvement. Therefore, Israel must confront Pakistan’s terror factory, something it cannot do without India’s support and active participation.

This situation necessitates strengthening India-Israel counterterrorism cooperation. It is true that India’s record on counterterrorism against Pakistan’s terror machinery has been dismal, but Delhi’s vast experience and insights could prove invaluable in dealing with Pakistan. Israel must also recognise that Iran has significant influence among the Shia population in Kashmir and the Indian hinterland. Additionally, Iranian paramilitary proxies, such as the Fatemiyoun Brigade, Zainabiyoun Brigade, and Qassem Soleimani Brigades, recruit a substantial number of jihadis from the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region of Pakistan.

Moreover, Israel’s all-weather ally, the US, must realise that the Taliban is essentially a terrorist organisation with deep-rooted ties to Al-Qaeda. Given this, the possibility that humanitarian and diplomatic aid given to the Taliban could be diverted to Al-Qaeda cannot be ruled out. Therefore, the US must reflect on its past mistakes in providing the Taliban with diplomatic recognition, negotiating with them, and filling their coffers with financial aid.

Washington also needs to seriously revisit its understanding of jihadist organisations. In the past, the US strategy of differentiating between Al-Qaeda and the Taliban resulted in disaster. The US believed that Al-Qaeda was the real enemy and that it could engage with the Taliban. Once again, they are repeating the same mistake by engaging with the Taliban in the hope of using it against ISIS. In reality, these are all terrorist organisations driven by the idea of jihad. The differences between them are superficial, misleading, and merely serve tactical purposes.

Thus, depending on the Taliban for local intelligence will be disastrous. The US, India, Israel, Russia, China, and Central Asian countries need to cooperate and collaborate effectively in dealing with Afghanistan-Pakistan-centred local and transnational terrorist groups. This is an urgent necessity, and it will be too late if Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and their loose affiliates unleash a reign of deadly bomb blasts and attacks in Europe, India, and the US, as Sarah has already forecasted in her report.

Lastly, strong oversight is needed regarding state funds being diverted, willingly or unwillingly, to support radical and terrorist causes. The funds distributed by intelligence agencies, the State Department, and humanitarian organisations like UNHCR must be strictly monitored.

In the US, various Islamist groups with suspicious credentials and track records have received state funding for welfare and development work. These groups have proven ties with Hamas, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Al-Qaeda, and a range of other terrorist and Islamist outfits. Therefore, state policy on terrorism must be uncompromising.

Raising and nurturing Frankenstein’s monsters for petty tactical and short-term gains will ultimately backfire, a lesson that intelligence agencies need to learn and internalise.

The author is a Cornell University graduate in public affairs, bachelors from St Stephen’s College, Delhi and has done his PhD on Jaish-e-Mohammad. He is a policy analyst specialising in counterterrorism, Indian foreign policy and Afghanistan-Pakistan geopolitics. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.